Warm Weekend…. Severe Storms Tuesday PM… Friday Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Good Friday afternoon! Today has turned out to be a nice mid Winter day, with temperatures reaching the lower 60s across the area. Expect clear skies tonight, with a rather cool night. Lows will dip into the 30s overnight, with upper 30s over west Alabama and lower to middle 30s in northeast Alabama.

Saturday will continue the warming trend, with highs reaching the upper 60s. Some spots over southwest Alabama will touch 70 on Saturday, with a good supply of sunshine. Area-wide, we’ll reach the low 70s on Sunday, as a south wind continues to transport moisture and warm air in from the Gulf. Clouds will gradually increase on Sunday, but I don’t expect any organized rain chances at this time.

A weak cold front will dip into far north Alabama on Monday. That will help to spark off the development of isolated showers in parts of our area. The best chance of getting a quick shower will be north of I-20.

The main show comes on Tuesday, as a very intense upper air trough and surface low swing across the central US. The upper air trough will dig and become negatively tilted with time Monday night and on Tuesday. Storms will fire up on Tuesday to our west and quickly become severe over Mississippi. Data continues to indicate the best chance of severe weather issues will occur near and north of I-20 and west of I-65. Keep in mind, our entire area is in a risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Some data has been lessening the amount of instability, in our local area. While the chance of that appears low at this time, a lower amount of instability would help prevent major issues, however, our more reliable forecast data suggests there will be plenty of instability for severe weather issues in our state. The risks include tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail. I don’t think flooding will be a big issue with this system, but we will watch trends carefully, as rain could be very heavy in spots.

Please keep checking back with us over the next few days, as we fine-tune the forecast. Given we’re still several days out, there’s room for changes. My hope is this changes to a less severe look and we just get some rain and thunder. Go over your severe weather safety plans now, incase we get issues in our area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
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