Storms Wednesday Noon – 7pm… Thoughts on This… 9:30pm Tuesday Update #alwx @wvua23

Good Tuesday evening! Here’s an update on the risk of strong to isolated severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Looking over our latest highres computer model data coming in tonight, everything is on track. I expect a mostly weak and broken line of showers and storms to race southeast across west & central Alabama during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.

The best wind shear for tornado formation will be well north of Alabama. The best uplift for more widespread and intense thunderstorms will be well north of Alabama. Instability here will be decent for an early March event. Basically, we’ll have just enough instability and uplift to kick off a very thin and broken line of showers and storms. The more intense storms along the thin line may produce a damaging wind gust or two as it passes across central Alabama, with a quick burst of heavy rain and brief intense lightning. An isolated storm or two may even produce small hail. The risk of a tornado in central Alabama appears really low, but we’ll carefully watch storms. This will be an incredibly fast hitting event, where the storm may begin and end in your area within 15 to 30 minutes.

The thin, broken line will impact areas near Hamilton, Vernon, Fayette, Jasper, Cullman and Reform between noon and 4pm. Areas along I-59 such as Livingston, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden will deal with the storms between 2pm and 6pm. Storms will exit our south and east Alabama counties by 7pm, impacting areas around Auburn and Montgomery to the south of our coverage area.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Strong Storms Wednesday PM… A Little Cooler Thursday… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Tuesday afternoon! Our local weather has turned out very mild this afternoon, with areas south of Tuscaloosa reaching 80 degrees! Thicker clouds and some rain across north Alabama earlier today has kept temperatures a tad cooler along the HWY 278 corridor. Most areas there are in the low 70s. Temperatures will remain mild this evening, with overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s. A few isolated showers are possible tonight and into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will feature a very mild day, with a high in the upper 70s. Lots of questions are on the severe weather risk for Wednesday. Here’s the latest…

A very thin, broken line of showers and storms will enter northwest Alabama up around Florence and the Shoals during the midday hour. The line will race east and southeast across west and central Alabama, moving out of Alabama and into Georgia by 7pm Wednesday evening.

Here’s the time-line: Storms will begin aroun noon in far northwest Alabama (around the Florence/Shoals area), then advance east to impact the I-59 coridoor (Livingston to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden) sometime between 3pm and 5pm. Storms will exit our east and east central Alabama countiues (areas around Anniston, Lineville, Auburn & Montgomery) by 7pm. The storms will only last maybe 15 to 30 minutes in one spot, then it’s over for you!

Storms along the line could produce strong gusty winds up to 60mph in spots. Storms could also produce isolated areas of hail up to quarter size. The tornado risk is really, really low, but I can’t rule out a spin-up somewhere along the line. Again, it will be very fast moving, with the main risk from strong gusty winds.

If there is a tornado warning issued, you can tune into WVUA for live, non-stop coverage. Also, you can go to wvua23.com, click weather and hit the weather stream option to watch us non-stop online as well.

The rest of the forecast will include a return of somewhat cooler air on Thursday and Friday. Highs will drop into the low 60s, with lows in the middle 30s Thursday night and Friday night. There could be a touch of light frost in some areas. Look for lots of sunshine through the weekend. Warmer air will return on Sunday and Monday. We’ll reach the upper 60s on Sunday, with low 70s possible on Monday.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Quick Update on Wednesday’s Strong to Isolated Severe Storm Risk… Tue Update 10:45am #alwx @wvua23

Here’s the short and sweet on tomorrow’s severe weather risk…

A very thin, broken line of storms will race east across Alabama during the afternoon hours. Storms will begin aroun noon in far northwest Alabama (around the Florence area), then advance east to impact the I-59 coridoor (Livingston to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden) sometime between 3pm and 5pm. Storms will exit our east and east central Alabama countiues (areas around Anniston, Lineville, Auburn & Montgomery) by 7pm. The storms will only last maybe 15 to 30 minutes in one spot, then it’s over for you!

Storms along the line could produce strong gusty winds up to 60mph in spots. Storms could also produce isolated areas of small hail. The tornado risk is really, really low, but I can’t rule out a spin-up somewhere along the line. Again, it will be very fast moving, with the main risk from strong gusty winds.

If there is a tornado warning issued, you can tune into WVUA for live, non-stop coverage. Also, you can go to wvua23.com, click weather and hit the weather stream option to watch us non-stop online as well.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Few Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Wednesday PM… 10PM Monday Eve Update #alwx @wvua23

Good Monday evening! Here’s an update on the risk of strong to isolated storms on Wednesday.

A broken line of showers and storms will form by noon on Wednesday over northwest Alabama (in areas near Vernon, Fayette, Hamilton, Jasper & Cullman.) By 2pm, showers and storms should be near the I-59 corridor (in areas near Livingston, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Gadsden.) At 4pm to 6pm, showers and storms will be impacting deep central and far east central AL (areas near Montgomery, Clanton, Talladega, Lineville and Anniston.) This will be a very quick hitting event, where storms may only last 30 minutes in your area, then pass to your east.

The main risk from this event will be isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60mph. Storms may also produce small hail, but the tornado risk remains very low. While the tornado risk is very low, an isolated spin-up tornado can’t be totally ruled out. The parameters we look at when forecasting severe weather simply do not overlap very well. The best wind shear will be moving out as the best instability and uplift is moving in, and the strongest uplift will be displaced well north of Alabama. The surface low will be near the Canadian boarder as the storms move in, which tends to be a limiting factor for severe weather and tornadoes in Alabama. I think the highest potential for damaging winds and tornadoes will occur in Tennessee and Kentucky.

Understand, these things can change. We’re close enough to the event and models have been consistent enough for my confidence to be high on the outcome, however, we always want you to be alert going into an event like this incase something changes. We will be watching radar and providing updates for you through the event. If there is a tornado warning issued, you can tune into WVUA for live, non-stop coverage. Also, you can go to wvua23.com, click weather and hit the weather stream option to watch us non-stop online as well.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Very Mild Through Wednesday. Storms Ahead… Monday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Monday afternoon! We’ve had a soaker of a rain event this morning and into the afternoon across much of west and central Alabama. Rain amounts have varied from 1″ on the high end to 1/4th an inch on the low end. Scattered showers continue to move into Alabama from the west, but the widespread moderate rain has ended. As a warm front moves northward tonight, temperatures will rise into the low 60s by sunrise tomorrow morning. A few showers will remain possible at times as the front moves north across the area.

Tuesday will feature very mild temperatures, with a high in the upper 70s. A few areas may touch 80 over central and southwest Alabama Tuesday afternoon. A few scattered showers will remain possible, especially north of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston. A cold front will push through Alabama Wednesday afternoon, bringing a risk of a few strong storms and perhaps a few severe storms. Below are my thoughts on this event…

First, I do NOT expect Wednesday to be an outbreak event. This appears to be a rather low end risk of damaging winds and maybe an isolated spin-up tornado. The parameters we look at when forecasting severe weather simply do not overlap very well. The best wind shear will be moving out as the best instability and uplift is moving in, and the strongest uplift will be displaced well north of Alabama. The surface low will be near the Canadian boarder as the storms move in, which tends to be a limiting factor for severe weather and tornadoes in Alabama.

I think the highest potential for damaging winds and tornadoes will occur in Tennessee and Kentucky, as that will be where the greatest overlap occurs. Down our way, I expect a rather thin line of storms to blow through west and central Alabama during the midday through late afternoon. Storms should reach far west Alabama sometime around noon, then exit east Alabama into Georiga by 8pm. The line of storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, brief heavy rain and intense lightning. Small hail will be possible, with a few isolated areas of damaging strait line winds. The risk of tornadoes appears really low, but I can’t rule out a spin-up somewhere on the line.

Please understand, these things can change. We’re close enough and models have been consistent enough for my confidence to be high on the outcome, however, we always want you to be alert going into an event like this incase something changes. We will be watching radar and providing updates for you through the event. If there is a tornado warning issued, you can tune into WVUA for live, non-stop coverage. Also, you can go to wvua23.com, click weather and hit the weather stream option to watch us non-stop online as well.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Few Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wednesday… Monday Update – 11:45am #alwx @wvua23

Good Monday midday to you! I’ve had a lot of questions this morning about the severe weather risk coming up on Wednesday. Here’s my latest thoughts…

First, I do NOT expect an outbreak from this event. This appears to be a rather low end risk of damaging winds and maybe an isolated spin-up tornado. The parameters we look at when forecasting severe weather simply do not overlap very well. The best wind shear will be moving out as the best instability and uplift is moving in, and the strongest uplift will be displaced well north of Alabama. The surface low will be near the Canadian boarder as the storms move in, which tends to be a limiting factor for severe weather and tornadoes in Alabama.

I think the highest potential for damaging winds and tornadoes will occur in Tennessee and Kentucky, as that will be where the greatest overlap occurs. Down our way, I expect a rather thin line of storms to blow through west and central Alabama during the midday through late afternoon. Storms should reach far west Alabama sometime around noon, then exit east Alabama into Georiga by 8pm. The line of storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, brief heavy rain and intense lightning. Small hail will be possible, with a few isolated areas of damaging strait line winds. The risk of tornadoes appears really low, but I can’t rule out a spin-up somewhere on the line.

Please understand, these things can change. We’re close enough and models have been consistent enough for my confidence to be high on the outcome, however, we always want you to be alert going into an event like this incase something changes. We will be watching radar and providing updates for you through the event. If there is a tornado warning issued, you can tune into WVUA for live, non-stop coverage. Also, you can go to wvua23.com, click weather and hit the weather stream option to watch us non-stop online as well.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Rain Monday…Severe Weather Wednesday?…Sunday Evening Update 5:35p.m.

Good Sunday evening! We started off very chilly this morning but this afternoon turned out great weather wise. Tonight, expect not so chilly conditions. Clouds are going to start sliding in overnight, blanketing in our warmer temperatures from this afternoon. Around midnight, we can start to expect rain to arrive on the western edge of the state. Rain will gradually progress from west to east throughout Monday, making for a dreary start to the work week. Areas behind the rain can expect cool conditions; however, areas in east and southeast Alabama may get some warmer conditions, into the lower 70’s, before rain arrives (probably closer to lunch time). Monday night, the chance for showers will continue as a warm front start to lifts from our south, meaning cloud cover and Gulf air will both aid in keeping the night’s temperatures on the mild side.

Tuesday, the lifting warm front will provide the chance for more showers, as well as a few thunderstorms. Wednesday, though, holds the greatest chance for storm activity. An approaching cold front to our west will bring storm activity Wednesday afternoon. Atmospheric conditions currently seem more conducive enough to get some severe weather sparked. The greater chance will be for everyone north of the I-20 line. As of now, exact timing isn’t available yet; plan on activity to start for west Alabama around 2-5 p.m. Stay posted with us on any changing updates.

After the storms Wednesday night, cooler air funnels in behind the front, meaning a cooler Thursday. Temperatures will remain cooler for the remainder of the work week. The weekend looks to have some increasing cloud cover throughout as a new chance for rain develops and currently takes aim to arrive Monday the following week.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes
Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes
Twitter: MetRoakes
Instagram: Reggie Roakes

Gradual Warming, Then Rain…Saturday Evening Update 7:25p.m.

Good Saturday Evening! Many likely woke up this morning surprised by how much we changed temperature wise from yesterday. Temperatures remained cool throughout the day: tonight, plan on a very chilly evening with lows for most dropping below freezing. Sunday, we will be slightly warmer as high pressure ridging slowly breaks down, winds shift, and warmer air from the Gulf starts to flow back in. That change will have some bigger impacts on our weather for next work week.

Monday, a developing low pressure system to our west will lift dew-points that will allow for shower activity for much of the day. Rain should be light to moderate. Tuesday, increased forcing and instability will provide more rain, as well as a few thunderstorms. Wednesday, with the arrival a cold front, will see the greatest chance for storms. Models are lining up for a chance for some severe weather Wednesday evening. Sufficient shear and instability look to be present to provide the opportunity for hail, damaging winds, as well as the opportunity for a quick, spin-up tornado. We will continue to watch Wednesday closely for any changing details.

After the showers and storms Wednesday, temperatures cool down again. Clear skies and cooler weather will be the story for up to the end of the work week; as we head into the weekend though, Saturday will have increasing clouds as we start to see our next rain maker form.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes
Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes
Twitter: MetRoakes
Instagram: Reggie Roakes

 

Cooler Weekend…. Rain Next Week… Friday Update – 5pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Friday afternoon! Our local weather is incredibly warm this afternoon, with temperatures reaching the lower 80s across all of central and west Alabama. Temperatures will fall into the 40s tonight, as a cold front passes through the area. A few showers and storms are likely along the front between 9pm and 3am tonight, but severe weather is not expected.

Saturday will be a cooler and breezy day. Look for a high near 60 along and south of I-20, with areas north remaining in the 50s all day. Temperatures will drop into the low 30s Saturday night, as a surface high moves right over the area. A light freeze and widespread frost appear likely for much of central and west Alabama Sunday morning. If you have any frost sensitive plants outdoors Saturday night, be sure to cover them or bring them indoors. Highs on Sunday will warm into the low 60s, with lots of sunshine.

A weak surface low and upper air trough axis will influence out local weather on Monday, with a good chance of occasional rain. Rain will remain a good possibility on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the front stalls across our local area. There are some big model differences in how much rain we get, but it is possible conditions get rather wet early next week. Temperatures will modify into the upper 60s on Monday, with 70s likely Tuesday and Wednesday. A secondary cold front will push through Alabama sometime Wednesday night. We’ll have to watch for a risk of strong storms, but widespread severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Tuscaloosa’s Tornado Alley…Look Back at Tornado Paths… Update: Feb 23, 2017 #alwx @wvua23

On this date in 1975, an F-4 tornado ripped right through the middle of Tuscaloosa, killing one and injuring nearly 50. The tornado took a path from the current Shelton State location north northeast into the current University Mall area and into Holt. Since my post on this tornado earlier this morning, I have got tons of questions on past tornadoes that have hit Tuscaloosa directly, so I decided to do a little digging. If you’ve lived in the Tuscaloosa area for a number of years, you probably have heard stories of how Tuscaloosa is its own tornado alley. After looking back at all tornadoes reported since 1920 in the range from EF-1 to EF-5 or the previous F scale, I found something very troubling.

I plotted the exact track lengths, width and colored intensity of every tornado stronger than an EF-0 that impacted the Tuscaloosa area. The map above shows a jumbled looking mess. It is nearly impossible to discern the difference between some tornado paths, as multiple paths overlap. I also added the date to each tornado track. Nearly every square inch of the city of Tuscaloosa has been impacted by atleast one tornado since 1920. That means, if you are in your 90s and have lived in Tuscaloosa your entire life, at some point you likely had damage or lost your property to a tornado. I lost my home and belongings to the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011… Not only has a large portion of Tuscaloosa been impacted directly by a tornado, most of the tornadoes were at EF-3 or stronger.

Does this mean more strong to violent tornadoes will hit Tuscaloosa in the years to come? According to statistics, absolutely. However, the atmosphere does not follow statistics and anything is possible. There’s no doubt all of west and central Alabama is in a tornado prone zone. Any time we have a risk of severe weather across portions of Alabama, it is always a good idea to have a plan and be ready. We could have another big tornado looming at any time…

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott