Tornado Watch Until Monday 2 a.m. – Sunday 6 p.m.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for Sumter and Marengo counties until 2 a.m. Monday. The threats with tonight’s weather will include flooding, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. We will likely see another watch issued for the remainder of West Alabama at some point later tonight.

Stay with WVUA for the latest on tonight’s weather. We’ll continue to update you here on the blog and on television should any warnings be issued across the area.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

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Isolated Tornadoes Tonight Through Early Monday… Sunday Update 5pm

Good Sunday evening to you! As of 4:40pm, much of Alabama is dealing with rain. So far, I’ve picked up 1.75″ at my house in Northport. Ronald Hughes reports 1.33″ at his house in Coker (West Tuscaloosa Co) so far. Rain totals will continue to add up over the next 24 hours. Most spots will pick up between 1 and 4 inches across west and central Alabama.

We’re watching a strong area of low pressure develop southwest of Alabama this evening. A warm front extends north and east ahead of the low and is positioned near HWY 80. As the warm front moves north through the night, instability will continue to increase. While instability values are marginal for severe weather, wind shear is forecasted to become favorable for rotating storms late tonight and early on Monday. The threat of isolated tornadoes is low, but it’s worth watching.

For the last day of September, it’s very rare to have a developing mid-latitude cyclone like this one across the deep south. At this hour, pressure values are at 1000mb. Look for pressure values to drop a tad between now and Monday afternoon. The low will continue to pull warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will continue to fuel lots of rain and thunderstorms. There’s not much lightning across our area at this hour, but you’ll notice an increase in thunderstorm development. As wind shear and instability increases across west and central Alabama, we’ll likely go under a tornado watch late tonight and early Monday morning. A few rotating storms are expected ahead of the surface low and cold front. Expect the risk of isolated tornadoes to develop between midnight in west Alabama and 10am Monday morning. The threat will continue through lunch for areas east of I-65 on Monday, but the threat should end in west Alabama before noon. Since there’s a risk of small, isolated tornadoes tonight, it will be a good idea to stay alert through tonight. A NOAA Weather radio is a great source to alert you when sleeping. You can then tune into WVUA-TV for the latest. If a tornado warning is issued in west Alabama, we’ll be on air.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Isolated Tornadoes Tonight – Monday Morning… Sunday Update 9:45am

Good Sunday morning! Rain will continue to increase today, with heavy rain at times. Rain totals look a tad lower across central and south Alabama, with storm totals between 1 and 4 inches. The higher rain amounts will fall over north Alabama, north of the surface low. Since the low track has shifted north, the heavier rain band will shift north. We can expect lots of rain over our entire area, but the flooding issues should be a little more isolated.

That being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Alabama under a slight risk of severe storms for late tonight and early Monday. In that threat, expect the risk of isolated tornadoes. Tornadoes should be small and short lived, but take any warning serious. Since this will be happening late at night or early tomorrow morning, it’s important to have a source to wake you up incase of a tornado warning in your area. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great source to have! I don’t expect a big tornado threat, but it only takes one tornado to cause issues. As the low tracks northeast and the wind shifts around to the west or northwest, the threat of severe weather will end from west to east across our state. At this point, I expect the threat to begin in west Alabama after midnight tonight and last through 9am tomorrow morning. The threat should end in east Alabama around noon. There is still room for change, so stay with us for updates!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Flooding Rain Tonight – Monday…Isolated Tornado? Saturday Eve Update 6:30pm

Good Saturday evening! As of 6:30pm, rain is starting to increase across west and south Alabama. Rain will continue to increase tonight from the southwest, and rain will become heavy at times. Look for periods of heavy rain through Sunday and Monday. There could be some serious flooding issues across parts of west and central Alabama. Here’s the latest rain total forecast from the HPC. Rain totals are forecasted to reach 3 to 4 inches across central and west Alabama. Some totals could reach the 5 inch mark between now and Monday night!

As the warm sector moves into western and southern Alabama Sunday night and on Monday, the threat of isolated severe weather is possible. We can expect the risk of an isolated, spin-up tornado Sunday night through Monday along and south of I-20/59. While I think the chance is very low at this point, we’ll have to watch radar trends close. Stay with us for updates.

The surface low is forecasted to track along I-20 Sunday eve and on Monday. Shear and instability ahead of the low will bring the risk of an isolated severe storm. Again, the risk is low, but lets all keep an eye on it. If anything changes, we’ll let you know. Dry weather will take over late on Monday as the surface low pulls to the northeast.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Rainy Weekend and Start to the Week – Saturday 10:15 a.m.

An upper level disturbance over Texas is the partial remnant of a pacific tropical system. This feature slowly moves toward Central Alabama through Tuesday. The synoptic setup and evolution looks pretty good amongst the models before departures show up by Wednesday, mainly in the timing of the system finally lifting out of the area. This is somewhat odd due to the fact that the kicker northern stream system is handled fairly well as another cold front enters the picture Friday with cooler conditions as a trough develops over the heart of the US.

Model consensus and run to run performance has not been great over the past several days, but some trends are starting to appear. To some extent, the NAM/CMC are still trending slower and more south with the surface low while the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET have a more northern solution, which is much closer to the suite ensemble solutions.

Models have trended a bit stronger with the upper system approaching the past run or two. The surface low will allow a tropical airmass to overspread Central Alabama with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches. It appears there will be sufficient frontogenetic forcing for the possibility of some locally heavy rain. Local streams are running near normal for most places except southeast and east, where drought conditions persist. The heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the low, upward motion/forcing, where a deformation zone sets up, so the exact timing and placement still remains a challenge. Rain amounts may reach 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts, with most falling Sunday into Monday.

The severe weather threat is less defined but certainly not a zero chance. As the surface low approaches, the wind fields at all levels increase quite dramatically, at times exhibiting nice right turning hodographs. Therefore, bulk shear/relative humidity values would indicate the potential of some organized activity and rotation as a large warm sector develops. But there are a few factors that may inhibit this stronger activity from developing at all. The lapse rates throughout are rather poor. CAPE values are also rather low, even zero on some soundings as the atmosphere is completely saturated most of the event. Clouds and rain will decrease surface heating and with highs only forecast around 80 at best. The severe threat will be highly dependent on mesoscale effects/surface low track. So there is a marginal threat of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, but at this time, localized flooding appears to be the higher threat.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Flooding Issues Possible Sunday – Monday… Friday Update 6:30pm

Here’s the latest output from the HPC. They are now forecasting rain totals of 2 to 3 inches across all of west and central Alabama. The main batch of rain would come in here Saturday night and last through Monday. Rain will be heavy at times due to a deep layer of Pacific and Gulf tropical moisture. There will be a band of heavier totals in there somewhere across west and central Alabama, where totals could reach the 5 inch mark. There could be some flooding, especially if that heavy band sets up across parts of the area.

Model data has trended considerably wetter with this storm system. A low will track along the Gulf coast, then turn northeast into central Alabama sometime on Sunday and Monday. Along and north of the low track will feature the heaviest rain. Our entire area will get into the heavy rain at times Saturday night through Monday. If you have outdoor events planned, you’ll need the rain gear!

The Alabama football game looks fair, with the risk of scattered showers and or a rumble of thunder. I don’t see a heavy rain for the game in Tuscaloosa, as models bring most rain in after midnight.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Very Heavy Rain Ahead… Gameday Forecast… Friday Eve Forecast Update – 6pm

Good Friday afternoon to you! There are no issues for the local high school football games this evening, as conditions remain dry across our area. The only showers on radar are south and east of Montgomery. Conditions will be mild through the games this evening, with low 80s at kickoff and upper 70s through the end of the games. Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy tonight. Lows will reach the lower 60s late tonight. The risk of rain through tonight, but I can’t rule out a passing shower.

Saturday is looking fair in terms of outdoor events, but you’ll need the rain gear from time to time. The risk of rain is at 50%, but I don’t expect rain all day. Showers and storms will remain scattered and short lived through the day, so if it rains, it won’t last that long. An area of low pressure will move into central Alabama Saturday night and on Sunday. The slow moving area of low pressure will dump heavy amounts of rain across all of west and central Alabama. Storm totals could reach 4 inches across parts of our area, so there could be some flash flooding issues. The low will move very slow across our state, so we can expect lots and lots of rain for a couple of days. There could be some strong storms south of I-20/59 on Sunday, but the risk of severe weather is looking low at this point.

The Alabama/Ole Miss game is looking fair, as the heavier rain will move in after the game. Look for a few showers and storms in the area, so a poncho will be needed. I don’t think it will be a washout during the 8:15pm kickoff. It’s going to be a close call though, as model data brings a shield of rain into our area sometime around midnight. Temperatures will remain in the 70s during the entire game.

Heavy rain will occur at times on Saturday night, Sunday and on Monday. We can expect the good rain chances to drop pretty fast Monday evening, as dry weather takes over from the north and west. Temperatures will cool off a bit at night, with overnight lows in the mid 50s next week. Skies will become sunny on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com