Good Wednesday afternoon! The upcoming weekend forecast has many folks excited about a brush of winter weather. We’re getting late in the season for snow events to continue, so this may be our last shot to see some snow before temperatures warm this spring. Above is the RPM, valid for 9am Saturday morning. This is a radar simulation off the forecast model. If this is a correct solution, all of west and central Alabama would be dealing with on and off snow showers; even as far south as Jackson, AL. While you see lots of blue, snow, the precip will be rather light and spotty.
Why I don’t expect snowfall accumulations… First, this event will be happening in early March, when the sun angle is higher. Melting will occur faster with a higher sun angle in March, rather than a much lower sun angle in January. Next, surface temperatures will remain above freezing. Most spots will be in the upper 30s to around 40 when the snow falls on Saturday, so that will cause melting. Since temperatures just above the ground will be well below freezing, snow flakes will be allowed to reach the ground level, even with temperatures at the ground level above freezing. I’ve seen it snow as warm as 45 with a setup like this. Next, there’s not enough moisture to create a heavy snow event. To offset melting, you must have heavy snow for it to stick this time of the year. Finally, it will not snow constantly on Saturday. Instead, we’ll deal with convective snow showers. This means, you’ll see a burst of light snow at your house for 10 to 15 minutes, then it will stop for a while. Similar to summer showers, these snow showers will come and go at a fast speed. The sun may even peak out between snow showers.
The bottom line… This will not be a big deal at all, but many of you will see lots of snow flakes flying around on Saturday. It will be a lot of fun to see and will be harmless due to no roadway impacts. I wouldn’t be shocked if a burst of snow puts a dusting down in areas north of I-20, but that dusting will melt within a few minutes.
Time-frame… Snow showers and flurries will start in northwest Alabama Friday night and continue on and off all day on Saturday. Snow showers will end just after sunset on Saturday.
We’ll watch this system just incase any surprises develop. You never know with this setup…
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