Rain Total Map for February 2013… Thursday Update 10pm

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Good Thursday evening! Today is the final day of February is passing, as we move into the month of March. It’s safe to say we’ve had a lot of rain this month. The map above shows rain totals across Alabama during the entire month of February.

The higher amounts occured over south Alabama, with totals between 15 and 20 inches just south of HWY 80. Most spots reported 6 to 9 inches of rain along I-20. Notice how rain totals are lower over extreme north Alabama, with only 2 to 4 inches across the Tennessee Valley. Over the month, we had several rounds of very heavy rain, which caused some river and creek flooding from time to time.

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Cold Air Ahead…Snow Flurries on Saturday…Thursday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4pm

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Good Thursday afternoon! Temperatures are about 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, as a chilly airmass takes over today. Clouds are gradually increasing this afternoon, and you’ll notice skies becoming cloudy later tonight, as lows fall into the lower 30s. The air over our area will remain dry, so I don’t expect any precipitation tonight. With a good deal of clouds on Friday, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 40s. Friday will be a cold winter-like day, with the chance of a sprinkle or two.

The airmass will continue to cool a bit by Friday night, with a low near 30 degrees. A few snow flurries are expected along and north of I-20 late Friday night, with snow flurries and snow showers becoming more likely for all of west and central Alabama Saturday morning. While many of you will see some flakes flying around on Saturday, I don’t expect snow accumulations or road issues. Highs will top out in the lower 40s on Saturday. Since the air just above the ground is forecasted to become very cold on Saturday, snow flakes will be able to reach the ground, even with above freezing temperatures. As lift from the upper air trough moves east of Alabama, snow flurries will end by late afternoon on Saturday.

Temperatures will reach the upper 20s Saturday night, with skies becoming clear. Highs will struggle to reach the middle 40s on Sunday, despite a sunny day. Temperatures will become very cold Sunday night, with a low near 22. A quick warming trend will put temperatures back in the 50s for highs on Monday and Tuesday.

Our next storm system will bring some showers on Tuesday, with highs in the 50s. There’s a small chance of a few snow flakes Tuesday night, but confidence is still pretty low. We’ll continue to update the forecast for you. Forecast models show a nice warming trend by Thursday and Friday of next week.

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Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Cold Air Ahead, Some Snow Showers on Saturday… Wednesday Night Forecast Update – 10pm

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Good Wednesday evening! After a warmer day today, with highs in the lower 60s, cold air will gradually take over for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Lows will fall into the upper 30s tonight, with a partly cloudy sky. We’ll continue to notice a cloud and sunshine mix through the day on Thursday. Highs will reach the lower 50s. As the upper air trough deepens across the south, temperatures will continue to drop.

Friday will turn into a cold day, with highs in the upper 40s. Clouds will thicken up as some uplift moves into the area. A few sprinkles are possible on Friday, but I don’t expect widespread rain at all. A few snow flurries are possible north of Hamilton and Cullman Friday afternoon and evening, but that activity will stay north of our area.

An upper air low will move through the base of the trough on Saturday. Uplift from that feature will bring the risk of snow flurries and snow showers on Saturday. Most spots will see some flakes flying around on Saturday, but I don’t expect anything to stick. It will not snow all day, but some flakes will fly across all of west and central Alabama at some point on Saturday.

Temperatures will stay very cold through the weekend, with highs in the 40s on Saturday and Sunday. Lows will fall into the upper 20s Saturday night and lower 20s Sunday night. We’ll notice a gradual warming trend on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s. Showers are possible on Tuesday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Snow Showers on Saturday… Accumulations Unlikely… – Wednesday Update 2:15pm

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Good Wednesday afternoon! The upcoming weekend forecast has many folks excited about a brush of winter weather. We’re getting late in the season for snow events to continue, so this may be our last shot to see some snow before temperatures warm this spring. Above is the RPM, valid for 9am Saturday morning. This is a radar simulation off the forecast model. If this is a correct solution, all of west and central Alabama would be dealing with on and off snow showers; even as far south as Jackson, AL. While you see lots of blue, snow, the precip will be rather light and spotty.

Why I don’t expect snowfall accumulations… First, this event will be happening in early March, when the sun angle is higher. Melting will occur faster with a higher sun angle in March, rather than a much lower sun angle in January. Next, surface temperatures will remain above freezing. Most spots will be in the upper 30s to around 40 when the snow falls on Saturday, so that will cause melting. Since temperatures just above the ground will be well below freezing, snow flakes will be allowed to reach the ground level, even with temperatures at the ground level above freezing. I’ve seen it snow as warm as 45 with a setup like this. Next, there’s not enough moisture to create a heavy snow event. To offset melting, you must have heavy snow for it to stick this time of the year. Finally, it will not snow constantly on Saturday. Instead, we’ll deal with convective snow showers. This means, you’ll see a burst of light snow at your house for 10 to 15 minutes, then it will stop for a while. Similar to summer showers, these snow showers will come and go at a fast speed. The sun may even peak out between snow showers.

The bottom line… This will not be a big deal at all, but many of you will see lots of snow flakes flying around on Saturday. It will be a lot of fun to see and will be harmless due to no roadway impacts. I wouldn’t be shocked if a burst of snow puts a dusting down in areas north of I-20, but that dusting will melt within a few minutes.

Time-frame… Snow showers and flurries will start in northwest Alabama Friday night and continue on and off all day on Saturday. Snow showers will end just after sunset on Saturday.

We’ll watch this system just incase any surprises develop. You never know with this setup…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Dry Weather This Week…Snow Showers on Saturday… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4pm

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Good Tuesday afternoon! Our weather has turned dry after a soaking rain yesterday evening and lastnight, but our weather is chilly and dry. Temperatures remained in the 40s along and north of I-20 all day, with lower 50s being reported south of the interstate. Skies remain mostly cloudy this afternoon, but skies will gradually clear out late tonight and on Wednesday. While clouds will continue to move overhead from time to time, atleast we will see some sun.

Lows will fall into the upper 30s tonight, under a partly cloudy sky. With some sun at times on Wednesday, most spots will warm into the upper 50s. A few 60 degree temperatures are possible by mid afternoon. A surge of colder air takes over on Thursday and Friday, with afternoon highs falling into the lower 50s and lows dropping below freezing. A deep upper level low will pass over Alabama on Saturday, which will mean for an interesting early March forecast.

Snow showers will become likely on Saturday, as the cold core upper level low passes over Alabama. This feature will bring lift and a batch of cold air. I don’t expect snow accumulations at this time, but we’ll have to keep an eye on this feature. Upper level lows can be tricky to forecast, so it’s worth keeping an eye on. At this time, we can expect snow flurries and snow showers at times on Saturday.

We will go dry on Sunday, with lows in the upper 20s Sunday morning and highs in the upper 40s Sunday afternoon. A warming trend takes over on Monday, with highs in the upper 50s. Our next system will move in on Tuesday, with the risk of a few showers.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Rain Tonight…Dry and Cold Weather Ahead! Monday Eve Forecast Update – 10:30pm

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Rain will continue at times on this Monday night, with a soaking expected. Areas south of I-20 may pick up about an inch of rain, while areas along and north of I-20 pick up 1/2 an inch. Look for some thunder, but I don’t expect severe weather issues. Dry weather will take over just in time for our Tuesday morning plans. Above is the radar image as of 10:30pm.

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The forecast will become rather cool on Tuesday, with afternoon highs in the lower 50s. A light shower or two can’t be ruled out on Tuesday, but most spots will stay dry. Skies remain mostly cloudy on Tuesday, but skies will go sunny on Wednesday. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s Wednesday morning. Highs will warm into the upper 50s on Wednesday.

Temperatures go down-hill on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the lower 50s. A sharp upper air trough will build into the south on Saturday, and highs will struggle to reach the middle 40s. A few snow showers or snow flurries are possible on Saturday. I don’t expect any issues with that, and amounts will be too light for anything to stick. We’ll keep an eye on it.

A gradual warming trend takes over by early next week, with highs in the upper 50s on Monday. A hard freeze is expected Saturday night and Sunday night, with lows in the upper 20s.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Severe Weather Just West of Alabama…Lots of Rain Tonight!… Monday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4pm

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Good Monday afternoon! Notice lots of rain on radar just west of Alabama, as of 4pm. This large batch of rain and thunderstorms will start in southwest Alabama (Marengo and Sumter County) between now and 6pm. Rain will continue to spread northeast and will include the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham areas after 6pm.

Much of Mississippi is under a tornado watch this evening until 10pm. The risk of severe weather is a little higher over Mississippi, where isolated tornadoes are possible. The storms should drop below severe limits once they reach west Alabama. We’ll keep an eye on radar incase a storm or two reaches severe limits. A large complex of rain along the coast is really protecting west and central Alabama from a big severe weather risk. The storms are blocking the inflow of unstable air into our part of Alabama. Some heavy rain is possible at times, but flooding issues will remain south of I-20. Keep an eye out on flooding conditions along and south of HWY 80 tonight.

The rain will move out just before sunrise Tuesday morning, but chilly and cloudy conditions will stick around for our Tuesday plans; highs will reach the lower 50s on Tuesday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 9:10 p.m.

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After a beautiful Sunday, overnight a surface high will move to the east over the mid-Atlantic as the closed low pivots across the southern plains. The easterly flow will create a cold air damming situation across the southern Appalachians. This wedge is forecast to hold in rather strong as the warm front tries to push northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation will increase in coverage from southwest to northeast tonight. Isentropic lift over the warm front will produce elevated showers. Models have been trending slower with the overall movement of the system and the start of precipitation. High temperatures will be lower for Monday with the wedge holding in strong. Expect the easterly flow in combination with widespread cloud cover should hold temperatures down well below guidance for much of the area. Expect highs will range from upper 40s across the northeast to low 60s across the southwest. These temperatures are very similar to those experienced on Friday when a similar wedge type pattern was in place. At this time, it appears that the best time for severe weather will be between 10 pm to 4 am on Monday night into early Tuesday. The front looks to barely nudge into southwestern portions of the forecast area around 10 pm. The wedge will really hinder the warm fronts progress northward and do not expect it to make any further northern progress than the southern third of the area. Therefore, areas generally along and south of a line from Demopolis to Montgomery to Phenix City will have the greatest risk of experiencing severe weather. The threat remains rather low. Expect the 60 degree isodrosotherm will make it northward to the line mentioned above and a few storms could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat. Cannot rule out an isolated tornado but the main threats will be damaging winds and localized flash flooding. The 850 mb winds will pick up to around 45-55 kts late Monday and these winds could translate down to the surface in some of the stronger storms. Also, an additional 2-3 inches of rain will create localized flash flooding and the potential for rises along creeks and rivers. The cold front associated with the closed low should move out of the area by early Tuesday morning with a few left over showers expected.

For the middle and later part of the week, upper level trough will continue generally across the eastern US. Westerly to northwesterly winds will advect in cold air throughout this time period with high temperatures generally in the 50s and low temperatures generally in the 30s. A reinforcing shot of cold air will move in later in the week into the weekend. The GFS model continues to be colder in the extended portion of the forecast than the ECMWF model. Both models are now showing an upper level trough moving through on Saturday with a little bit of precipitation. If you take the temperatures from the cooler GFS it would be light snow on Saturday while the ECMWF would be rain. At this time, there is a slight chance for showers on Monday favoring the warmer ECMWF.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8:30 p.m.

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With ample low level moisture and some clearing tonight expect patchy fog will be possible especially in the sheltered valleys. Expect Sunday will be a nice day across Central Alabama. Surface high pressure located to the north and weak ridging aloft should keep skies mostly sunny with temperatures rebounding into the low 70s across the south.

The pattern remains rather active moving into Monday. A rather potent upper level trough will move out of the southern plains into the lower-Mississippi River Valley. This will increase southerly flow in the low levels with the stalled out front reemerging from the gulf as a warm front. At the same time, the surface high pressure will move to the east with easterly flow at the surface. This easterly flow will produce a wedge across most of Central Alabama. Therefore, the question remains how far the warm front will move with the wedge holding strong across most of Central Alabama and Georgia. There should be plenty of elevated shower and thunderstorm activity north of the warm front during the morning and afternoon hours on Monday. Mid-level lapse rates are rather impressive with 850 mb temperatures warming to near 11-13 degrees Celsius ahead of the warm front. With these impressive lapse rates and low freezing levels there is the possibility of a few isolated stronger storms with small hail. However, the main threat will come south of the warm front later into the evening and overnight hours. Models are coming into better agreement regarding this situation. The warm front looks to push northward through the southern third of the forecast area during the evening and overnight hours. Additionally, the models have come into better agreement regarding the timing of the frontal passage. The most likely time for severe weather is between 4pm to midnight in locations generally south of a Gainesville to Prattville to Phenix City line. Confidence level will remain the same with uncertainty remain over whether the wedge will hold or will the warm front push far enough northward. The upper level trough will become negatively tilted as the warm front advances northward across the southern counties. The surface low is forecast to deepen with 850 mb winds increasing to around 50 kts. With the increase in low level shear compared to the models yesterday there is a slight risk of tornadoes. The other threat will be heavy rainfall that will create localized flash flooding and will continue to add to already swollen creeks and rivers across Central Alabama. The cold front should move through the area by 12z Tuesday with a few showers lingering behind the front into the day Tuesday.

Drier and colder air is expected to move in for the mid to later part of next week. A reinforcing shot of cold air late Wednesday and into Thursday will keep high temperatures in the 40s. Models are showing that temperatures could potentially remain in the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the weekend. Temperatures are not expected to modify that much with a fresh coat of snow across the central plains and portions of the mid-Mississippi River Valley. The only precipitation that the models are indicating in the extended forecast is some uplift snow across the Appalachians with northwesterly flow aloft. Regardless, it appears some of the coldest air of the year will move in across the southeast later in the week into next weekend.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Friday Night Radar/Forecast Update – 9:30pm

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Rain will continue for much of this Friday night and very early Saturday morning. Here’s a radar check as of 9:30pm. Numerous showers and storms were moving across central and west Alabama at that time, with the very heavy rain axis around the HWY 80 area. The heavier rain will remain along and south of I-20 tonight, with minor flooding issues possible along and south of HWY 80. Rain totals tonight will approach 1 to 2 inches along and south of I-20 tonight, with higher totals around the Montgomery area.

I don’t expect any major severe weather issues tonight, but a strong to severe storm is possible through daybreak along and south of HWY 80. The risk of a severe storm is low, but an isolated storm may produce small hail. The rain will quickly end from northwest to southeast by daybreak tomorrow morning. Areas along and north of I-20 will be dry by 5am, with areas around HWY 80 dry by 7am Saturday.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Saturday, with a few peaks of sun late in the day. Highs will reach the middle 60s on Saturday and upper 60s on Sunday. Look for a full day of sun on Sunday…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com