A Few Storms Possible Through Wednesday…Better Rain Chances Ahead…Beach Forecast – Tuesday Update 4:45pm
July 31, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Tuesday afternoon to you! What a mess late lastnight and early this morning, as a MSC (Mesoscale Convective System) moved through our state. The complex of storms packed a big punch across the area, with strong winds, very intense lightning and very heavy rain. The rain was beneficial for many areas, but too much rain fell too fast in some areas, causing some big issues. In-fact, rain totals were reported over 4 inches in Jasper and Birmingham, with pockets of 6 to 7 inches embedded in a line from Jasper to Birmingham to Clanton. My rain total in Northport was right at 0.50”. The active batch of storms has moved off the Gulf Coast this afternoon, as the upper air disturbance continues to track around the outer edge of the ridge.
The northwest flow aloft is weakening and shifting west of Alabama, so I don’t expect any big issues with storms over the next 24 hours. A stray storm or two is possible this evening and on Wednesday, but rain chances are at around 20%. There could be some foggy issues late tonight, so allow extra time on the roads late tonight or early on Wednesday. Look for lows to fall into the middle 70s tonight. We’ll introduce more sun in the forecast on Wednesday, with an afternoon high around 96 degrees. With high dewpoints and hot air temperatures, heat index levels will reach the 105 degree mark in many spots.
The ridge will nudge east a bit and strengthen on Thursday and Friday, which will help to increase the northwest flow aloft over Alabama. As a few small scale features work around the eastern edge of the ridge, we can expect a round of showers and storms at any point on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. It will not rain all day or night, but a round of strong to severe storms is certainly possible. The main threats with any storms that develop Thursday through Saturday will include damaging winds, hail and intense cloud to ground lightning. Rain chances stand at around 40% for those days, but these chances may increase.
The ridge west of Alabama will weaken late in the weekend and early next week, which will reduce the good chance of scattered storms. A few storms are still possible, but it will mainly be in the form of isolated afternoon storms.
If you have plans to the beach over the next few days, look for the risk of a few scattered storms on Wednesday, with highs near 90. Rain chances will increase a bit on Thursday through Saturday, with the risk of intense storms at any point. It will not rain all day or night, so the beach forecast is looking fair. We can expect a partly cloudy to partly sunny sky Wednesday through Saturday along the Alabama Gulf Coast and northwest Florida Panhandle.
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