Sunday Afternoon Weather Discussion

A good Sunday to you! Today was another pleasant day, with sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s. The easterly breeze and low humidity values made it feel very nice outside today. This will continue to be the case over the next couple of days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with an easterly wind continuing. Also, we aren’t expecting the humidity to return until Wednesday, so we will continue to see cool nights across the area. 

Tonight will be on the chilly side, with lows in the low 50s. Skies tonight will be clear. You can expect tomorrow to be much like today, with highs in the mid 80s, under sunny skies. We have been dominated by high-pressure over the past few days, and we will continue to be dominated by high-pressure through the early portion of next week. 

Things begin to change by Wednesday, as we will have a return of gulf moisture into the southern half of our area. This will give us the return of pop-up showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and lasting through the weekend. Highs will warm into the upper 80s. Something interesting we have been watching is the tropics. There is a stalled out frontal boundary situated near the east coast of Florida. Some computer models develop an area of low pressure in that area and bring it towards the west. In fact, some of our guidance develops a tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. This is something that we will need to keep a close eye on as it moves towards the west. As of now, nothing has gotten organized there, but if anything does, we will be sure to let you know about it.  

As for the tropics, we were dealing with two tropical systems well out in the Atlantic, but both systems have really fizzled away and are not expected to re-develop.  

Be sure to tune in tonight at 10 p.m. for the latest in your weather forecast. 

WVUA TV’S Richard Scott

Saturday Afternoon Weather Discussion

144044w_sm1.gifA good Saturday to you! Today, you can expect lots of sunshine, with a nice easterly breeze. Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid 80s, but with low humidity in place, it will feel pleasant outdoors, especially during the evening hours. I noticed yesterday evening, how cool it felt; it reminded me of football weather. I bet the nice weather was a welcome relief for all of the high school football games across the area last night. 

The nice weather will continue for the next 3 to 5 days. Highs each afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies. Lows over the next couple of nights will be really nice. Tonight, lows will be in the mid 50s.

Our next chance of rain comes into the forecast by the weekend. On Thursday, you will notice a return of humidity across the state, with the chance of scattered, afternoon storms. It doesn’t appear that it will be a washout at this time, but we are watching signs of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico next week. As of now, it is uncertain whether anything will develop, but the Gulf certainly bears watching by mid-week. 

Elsewhere in the tropics, we have a newly formed Tropical Storm Melissa well out in the Eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect this system to strengthen into anything more than a weak tropical storm. Its forecasted track takes Melissa out to sea in about 5 days. Closer to home, we have Tropical Depression Karen. This storm is battling some intense wind shear east of the Virgin Islands and is not expected to survive. Of course, we will keep an eye on this system as it moves towards the northwest. 

Looking ahead, I don’t see any signs of cold air intrusions into the area. We will keep an eye on things as we head into the month of October.  

Be sure to tune in tonight at 10 for the latest on your forecast. 

WVUA TV’s Richard Scott

Image source: National Hurricane Center

Friday Afternoon Forecast Discussion Update

The weather has been picture perfect out there today and it has felt great with temperatures in the upper 80s. The north wind has helped out and it’s been rather gusty at times. As you know, the major drought continues and the lower humidity has prompted no burn advisories. If you’re planning on grilling outdoors or using anything flammable, be super cautious. The weather this evening is going to be perfect for High School Football. Temperatures will be dropping into the low 60s during the game. Tomorrow morning we will have lows in the 50s, with upper 40s possible in outlying areas to the north.

The weather will remain dry, with lots of sunshine expected through at-least the 2nd of October. Temperatures during the day will remain in the 80s, with lows at night in the 50s. The humid air will make a gradual comeback into next week and the long-range data does look interesting due to the fact that a tropical system could come into the picture. The data continues to advertise a disturbance around the Florida Panhandle and also the data is saying Karen, now a Tropical Storm well out in the Atlantic, could make a turn westward. For now I’ve included more clouds in the forecast for next Thursday and Friday, with the chance for a shower or thunderstorm. By the way, Lorenzo made a landfall in Mexico early today and now the system is a much weaker depression over land. Be sure to join us tonight for more details on our local forecast!

Chief Meteorologist Wes Wyatt-WVUA-TV Weather

Thursday Afternoon Forecast Discussion Update

I had a great time out at Hillcrest Middle School today speaking to the sixth grade Patriot’s. It was great visiting my old stomping ground and I also brought back a nice-delicious looking cake. Today’s weather has been right on track with the forecast, as scattered areas of rain and some thunderstorms have developed. A front is now pushing through and this will bring some pleasant changes for the end of the week.

Tonight there will be some lingering showers to the south but this activity will be exiting the area, with gradual clearing expected. As high pressure builds in, sunshine will be making a full return for tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday. According to the latest visible satellite imagery, the sky is already cloud free back over portions of Louisiana and Arkansas. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s and it’s going to feel much nicer, with a less humid-northerly wind. Tomorrow night the sky will be mostly clear and this will allow for good cooling. You can expect a great start to Saturday, with morning lows in the 50s.

Other than a slow moderation in temperatures, not much will change in the extended forecast. Things will start to get interesting around Wednesday of next week as a tropical system may come into the picture. The data has been trying to grasp onto some development in the eastern Gulf. We will keep an eye on the latest developments and we will keep you posted. Tropical Storm Lorenzo developed in the southern Gulf today and this system will be tracking southward into Mexico tomorrow. Also, Tropical Storm Karen is still churning in the open Atlantic. This system will be making a turn northward into the open Atlantic. Stay tuned.

Chief Meteorologist Wes Wyatt-WVUA-TV Weather

Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion Update

The weather pattern over our region has been rather stagnant this week due to high pressure over the eastern U.S. This ridge will weaken slightly as a front drops into our area tomorrow. For now we will have another muggy night, with the chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm. Lows tonight will be dropping into the middle 60s.

Unfortunately, the coverage of rain won’t be that impressive as the main upper air support will be well north of our area. Highs will be in the upper 80s, with lows tomorrow night in the 60s.

Another stretch of dry weather will kickoff on Friday, with a mostly sunny expected. The good news is that the humidity won’t be as bad, with some nice-crisp nights and mornings. During the each day, highs will be in the 80s under a mostly sunny sky. Look for a clear sky at night, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Saturday morning will be the coolest morning, with lows near 59 degrees.

High pressure to our east will guide a disturbance into north Florida late next week and this feature may migrate into Alabama. I’m thinking the data may be trying to pick up on some tropical development late next week. For now, as moisture will increase, I’m calling for partly cloudy skies for Wednesday and Thursday, with the chance for a thunderstorm in the afternoon Thursday.

Trouble in the Tropics: All kinds of things are happening in the tropics. Right now tropical depression thirteen in the southern Gulf is dropping towards Mexico. Tropical Storm Karen east of the Antilles is turning northward and should stay away from land. Karen may likely develop into a hurricane soon. A low-pressure system off of south Florida will track along Florida’s east coast in the days ahead and at this time we’re not expecting development. It will need to be closely monitored over the warm Gulf Stream. Finally, two other healthy waves are well across the Atlantic and these features will have to be monitored for development. Both western Atlantic systems are in favorable environments for development. Click here for much more

Traveling With The Tide: If your traveling with the Crimson Tide this week, look for partly cloudy skies and scattered thunderstorms in Jacksonville on Saturday. Highs will be in the middle 80s. Much like last week’s game, just carry the poncho, as the rain should pass over quickly.

Chief Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
WVUA-TV Weather

Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion Update

Good afternoon! I sure had a great time over at Woodland Forest Elementary School earlier today speaking to the students in Mrs. Cain’s Fifth grade class. We talked about the wide variety of weather we can have around here, including this year’s record setting heat wave.

So what is the deal with our local weather? Today Alabama’s weather was much like what we experienced yesterday-minus the rain-with highs in the low 90s. The big factor has been the humid conditions, which has made it feel much warmer. A high pressure ridge has built in from the east and this has put an end to the rain development. The ridge will weaken slightly tomorrow and this will allow for isolated rainfall development late in the day.

A cold front is expected to drop in from the northeast and this will bring us our best chance of rain this week on Thursday. Unfortunately, even on Thursday, this won’t be the beneficial rain event we’re looking for. Dry air filters in behind the front on Friday and as no shocker, the drought will continue. It will feel more bearable however, as the less humid air will make for pleasant evenings. Lows will be in the upper 50s by Saturday morning.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Karen has formed east of the Windward Islands and the system is expected to make a turn northwest and eventually northward, staying well away from land. Tropical depression thirteen could form at any moment in the southwestern Gulf and the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate. Also, a tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles could become better organized in the days ahead. As we are now in the peak of hurricane season, stay with your “Home Team Station” for the latest developments.

Chief Meteorologist Wes Wyatt-WVUA-TV Weather

Tropical Depression Twelve Forms In The Eastern Atlantic

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…

AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1700 MILES…2735 KM…EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION…10.1 N…36.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

Posted By: WVUA TV’s Richard Scott

Monday Afternoon Forecast Discussion Update

My favorite season of the year has arrived! Fall is here. During this time of the year I guess we’re all just ready for a break from the oppressive heat and humidity of late summer. We especially need a break this year considering we went through one of the worst heat waves to impact Alabama. This past August we had a record 14-day stretch with temperatures at or above 100-degrees and if that wasn’t enough, we reached an all time record high of 107 on the 10th of August. Unfortunately, the weather for today and tomorrow will be far from fall-like as highs will be near 90-degrees with more humidity. The good news however, is that this hot and humid stretch won’t last much longer. A front is on the way and this will bring some relief later in the week.

The tropics have been quite active as we had a tropical depression and tropical storm in just the past three days. Tropical depression ten moved ashore Friday evening and brought heavy rains to south Alabama. We picked up some rain thanks to this feature and even though it was forecasted to develop into Jerry, that name was given to another tropical system yesterday that developed well out in the Atlantic, east of New England. Now we’re monitoring another disturbance in the central Gulf that could become better organized. A plume of moisture extending north of this feature has brought heavy rain to Louisiana. There are also two other tropical disturbances that have caught our eye, one is a disturbance east of the Windward Islands and another is a wave further eastward.

The tropical moisture to our west will eventually be swept eastward in advance of a cold front and this will bring us a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be partly cloudy days, with hot and humid conditions. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon hours. The better chance of rain will move in on Thursday as the actual front pushes through and following the front, much drier air will filter in. Look for lots of sunshine on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Highs will be in the lower 80s and the less humid air will make it feel much nicer.

Chief Meteorologist Wes WyattWVUA-TV Weather

Sunday Afternoon Weather Discussion

 

A happy first day of fall to you! Today, we have seen a good mix of sun and clouds. The big story is the humidity. If you stepped outside today, you probably noticed how humid it feels. This is going to stick with us over the next few days, as we have a flow out of the southeast. On Friday, tropical depression # 10 moved just to our south; that system helped pull lots of tropical moisture in place across the area. Thanks to the moisture and daytime heating, you can expect a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area. The real downfall to the forecast is the hot temperatures. It certinally doesn’t feel like fall, with temperatures in the upper 80s.

Our thinking doesn’t change much over the next couple of days. We will continue to see a mix of sun and clouds, with an opportunity of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the area. Our coverage of storms dwindles down somewhat on Tuesday, where the best moisture supply will be to our west.

We are awaiting on the arrival of a cold front by mid week, which will help our rain chances through out the week. You can expect a 40% chance of rain and storms each afternoon through Thursday.

Some of the latest data is hinting that the front will slip through here on Friday, which will cut back our rain chances as some drier air works into the state. Unfortunally, it doesn’t appear that it will give is much cooler weather. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s. The good news is that we are shaping up for a georgous weekend, with mostly sunny skies in place. Of course, depending on how far south the front moves, depends on how nice our weather is going to be. As of now, it looks like the drier air will make it all the way through our area. If things change in our forecast, we will be sure to let you know about it.

We are watching the tropics. We have newly formed Sub Tropical Storm Jerry, which formed today well out into the Central Atlantic. This system doesn’t pose a threat to us as it is heading well out to sea. Also, there are several more areas we are watching for possible tropical development out in the Atlantic. We will be sure to let you know more about thoes in coming days. One area closer to home is a tropical disturbance near the Yukatan Penensula. It is not very organized, but could become better organized over the next day or two as it moves towards the north. Stay tunned for updates on this system if it develops.

Be sure to tune in tonight at 10 for the latest on your weather forecast.

Have a great Sunday!

WVUA Weather: Richard Scott

Picture Source: (National Hurricane Center)

Jerry Forms in the Atlantic

…JERRY BEGINNING TO TAKE ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…

AT 500 PM AST…2100Z…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1060
MILES…1705 KM…WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/HR…AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC…WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS…AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TONIGHT.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION…36.8 N…46.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

Posted By: WVUA TV’s Richard Scott