Saturday Afternoon Weather Discussion: Posted at 6:30 p.m.

A good Saturday to you! If you got a chance to go outdoors today, the weather was perfect, with temperatures near 60 degrees in many locations. Tonight, skies will continue to be clear, but a cold night is expected, as lows approach 33 degrees. On Sunday, the weather will be even warmer than today, with highs near 64 degrees. So, this talk of wintry weather and middle 60s can be a little mind boggling. First, we are going to deal with a flow out of the south, which will bring some warm gulf air; that will be shortly lived, as cold air will be funneling in from the north. An area of low pressure will be developing over the Gulf of Mexico, which will bring a round of showers to the state. Will the cold air and precipitation meet up over Alabama?

A cold front will move into northwest Alabama during the day on Monday, with rain still around. There is still some indication that we could get a brief mix of rain and snow during the afternoon hours, but it looks like most of it will be in the form of rain. The surface low is now forecasted to go further south and be weaker. This will enable it to wrap in a lot of cold air in a hurry, which will spare us from a wintry mess. In my forecast, I have a chance for rain on Monday, with most of that coming during the morning hours. There could be a brief change over to light snow, but temperatures will remain above freezing. Don’t expect any travel issues or accumulations. It is still fairly early in the game, so conditions may change. Be sure to keep an eye on our blog page and join us tonight at 10 p.m. on our live newscast for the latest on the weather.

As an upper-air disturbance pivots in from the northwest, we could still have enough moisture across our area to squeeze out some light snow or snow flurries. At the most, there could be a dusting north of Tuscaloosa on Tuesday; highs will only reach 42 degrees. Tuesday night, we will all go dry, as lows make it into the lower 20s. A few locations may reach the upper teens over the Tennessee Valley. On Wednesday, highs will continue in the 40s, but a big warm-up is expected on Thursday; highs will make it into the upper 50s. There will continue to be a sunny sky throughout the rest of the week. Clouds will begin to increase late on Friday, with highs near 61 degrees. A small chance for a shower works in on Saturday. Have a great day!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

Friday Update – 2:55 p.m.

It’s been a pretty nice day across the area… sunshine and temperatures in the lower 50s. There are a few clouds out there, but the weather should stay calm tonight… and through the weekend.

We’ll see warmer temperatures tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the middle 50s tomorrow and the lower to middle 60s Sunday!

Of course, all eyes are on Monday. Right now, a low pressure system will be developing in the Gulf of Mexico. It will head northeast into the panhandle of Florida Monday.

We’ll see a cold rain Monday, and early in the afternoon, cold air will catch up with that rain as it’s ending. That means a period of some snow is possible Monday afternoon and evening.

It’s early to call for any accumulations… but we could see a dusting across West Alabama.

Right now, it looks like the rain will start to change over to snow at about 1 or 2 Monday afternoon in our far northwest counties, Lamar and Fayette. By 6 p.m. Monday, the snow change over should be happening along Interstate 20/59. By 8 p.m. the snow line moves into our southern most areas in Marengo County.

This, of course, can and will change as we get closer.

As this low lifts up the eastern coast, it will pull down a tremendous amount of cold air. Tuesday, there will be some lingering flurries along with gusty northwest winds and high temperatures in the low 40s.

Wednesday through Friday, temperatures start to moderate with mostly sunny skies.

Richard Scott will have updates over the weekend here on our blog and on the air.

I’ll have the forecast today on WVUA News First at 4:00 and the news at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 p.m.

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather

Thursday Afternoon Update – 2:30 p.m.

It’s a sunny afternoon across West Alabama today, however, it’s rather chilly! Temperatures are in the upper 40s around the whole area.
This morning, lows started out int he upper 20s and lower 30s.

Here’s a look at some area lows:

• Hamilton – 29
• Jasper – 30
• Centreville – 33
• Tuscaloosa – 33
• Demopolis – 34
• Selma – 38

Tonight, we’ll see temperatures lower than those numbers, I’m expecting upper 20s area-wide.

Tomorrow, we’ll see highs right around 50 with plenty of sunshine. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon and early evening.

Saturday looks to be nice, we’ll start off cold in the morning, in the upper 20s, then we’ll warm up to 55 in the afternoon.

Sunday looks to be even better, with highs near 60! Clouds will start to move in as we go through the day Sunday.

Sunday night, there’s a chance for rain as a vigorous Gulf low develops southwest of us. This storm is going to bring us rain and probably some snow before all is said and done.

Cold air will be in place, and with overriding moisture from this storm system, we could see some snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Right now, it’s too early to tell how much snow, if any, we will see here in West Alabama. But, confidence is growing that we will see some wintry weather to start off the first week of February.

Here’s what I’m thinking about this system… here in West Alabama, we will start with rain showers late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Monday afternoon, we’ll start to see a change over to snow. Monday night, snow will taper off. Tuesday, we’ll see some flurries.

As this system moves across the panhandle of Florida, it will then race northward, causing a big nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic and New England states next week.

Again, this is a changing situation… so please check the blog for updates and also catch our forecast on the news at 4, 5, 6 and 10 p.m.

Looking past Monday and Tuesday, we’ll be cool with mostly sunny skies for Wednesday and Thursday.

I’ll be in today and tomorrow for Wes with West Alabama’s forecast.

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather

Winter Weather Thoughts for Monday; Posted at 1:00 p.m.

There are certainly some busy days ahead in the weather center, with the thoughts of a winter storm somewhere in the south. Wes will have more on this later this afternoon, but I wanted to throw some thoughts around as well. A deep trough will dig out into the heartland of the nation on Sunday and move into the southeast. This will spin up a surface low somewhere over the western Gulf of Mexico or south Texas. While no one knows what’s going to happen at this point, the models have been surprisingly consistent. This is the first time this season, where the Canadian, GFS and the European models have been this consistent with the track and intensity of a storm system several days out. We, as forecasters must keep in mind that forecasting winter weather is very difficult to do in the south, but we also can’t ignore the model consistency. Somewhere in the deep south will see heavy amounts of snow. Where will that happen? That is the million dollar question.

The current look suggest that rain will begin late Sunday afternoon or during the overnight hours. As cold air filters in from the north, we could have rain change to snow across central Alabama. The low will move ashore over the Florida Peninsula, which will place all of north and central Alabama on the cold side of the low. As the area of low pressure rapidly deepens and moves into southern Georgia, very cold air will move into our area. We’ll have a gusty wind, and snow coming to an end over Alabama late Monday night and early on Tuesday. Again, this will change over the next few days. I’m just telling you the current look. We will keep you updated through out the week and the weekend as the system moves in. I can tell you that a band of heavy snow will develop and move across either Alabama or Tennessee. This depends on the track and intensity of the low. It could be Nashville, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa or Demopolis that gets the heavy snow. I’ll let you know that on Saturday. Usually, this type of set up will include a 50 – 70 mile wide band of accumulating snow. South of that will be rain and north of that will be flurries. Last January, 4 – 5 inches of snow fell across Marengo County, while it was rain south of there and a dusting in Tuscaloosa. That’s one reason forecasting winter weather is so hard.

Again, Wes will have a discussion on here later this afternoon, and I will be in on Saturday, with the full details on the latest with this winter weather threat. This will change over the next few days, so it is very important that you watch out newscast and keep an eye on the blog page. Have a great Thursday!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

Wednesday Afternoon Discussion 4:36 PM

We received a report of rain mixing with sleet over Sumter County this afternoon. The actual report was around 3:10 p.m. near the town of Sumterville. Colder air continues to pour into the area and we will drop below freezing tonight. The precipitation is slowly departing and we will continue to deal with a cloudy sky throughout the evening hours. Rainfall totals for today have been in the quarter inch range. Some clearing will take place after midnight, with lows tonight dropping into the upper 20s. Tomorrow the sky will be sunny, with highs recovering into the low 50s. We will have a west to northwest wind tomorrow and then the wind direction will become northerly, with another intrusion of cold air on Friday. We will get a taste of polar air on Friday, with highs only reaching the 40s.

Bright weather will be the story for Saturday and after a frigid start temperatures will make a nice recovery into the 50s. All eyes today are on the long range data that paints some interesting possibilities for Monday. It looks like we will have bright weather on Sunday followed by increasing clouds Sunday night. The data is showing a gulf low developing by Monday as colder air digs into the region. This could bring us a brush with wintry weather and the National Weather Service is already highlighting the possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Monday. At this time we’re forecasting a possibility of rain or snow for Monday and Tuesday. There is still plenty of time to assess the winter weather possibility and I can guarantee you the models will depict different scenarios in the days ahead. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune our forecast!

Wes Wyatt
WVUA Chief Meteorologist

Tuesday Afternoon Weather Discussion 4:30 PM

Residents in states stretching from Oklahoma northeastward into the New England States have dealt with a major wave of wintry weather. According to the Associated Press, significant ice accumulations have been reported over Arkansas and western Kentucky, with more than an inch of ice. The weight of the ice has downed trees and power lines causing numerous power outages. Travel in the region is also quite hazardous.

The cold air responsible for the wintry weather will be on the move tonight and we will feel the colder air in central Alabama tomorrow. In the meantime, we will have a cloudy sky tonight with temperatures bottoming out near 50 degrees. Tonight’s low will also be the high for tomorrow as temperatures will fall during the day. The cold front will drop in around sunrise tomorrow and a north wind will continually pump colder air into the region throughout the day. I’m also expecting damp conditions as rain will move in late tonight and continue through the day tomorrow. Moisture will be overrunning the colder air setting the stage for a very raw day. Post frontal precipitation will come to a slow end late tomorrow and there may be enough cold air to support a wintry mix for the extreme northern half of the area. This possibility will mainly be in areas like Hamilton and Double Springs. At this time I’m expecting the precipitation to be well out of here before temperatures drop below freezing late tomorrow night.

On Thursday we will have some rays of sunshine, with highs near 50 degrees. An upper air trough pivoting into the region will bring another surge of cold air. Lows will be in the 20s for both Thursday night and Friday night. Highs will only reach the low 40s on Friday and some spots could wake up to teens early Saturday. We will remain dry this weekend and by Monday our daytime temperatures will be near 50 again. The data is now bringing in a cold front on Monday and this could squeeze out a few showers late Monday and into the day on Tuesday. Be sure to join us tonight for more details!

Wes Wyatt
WVUA Chief Meteorologist

Monday Afternoon Weather Discussion 4:18 PM

The weather was perfect today with lots of sunshine and pleasant January temperatures. The month is about to end and this rocky January won’t end without a bang. Temperatures tonight will cool into the 40s, with increasing clouds. There could be some patchy fog tonight as moisture slowly increases. We will wake up to lots of clouds tomorrow and the cloudy sky will persist during the day. The one thing I’m looking forward to tomorrow is the warm-up to 70 degrees. We will have highs well above average and enjoy it because we will experience a sharp change to 40 degree readings on Wednesday.

A cold front will drop in tomorrow night bringing a good chance for rain. We will also have wet weather through Wednesday morning, lingering into the afternoon. Temperatures will fall throughout the day Wednesday, with a cold north wind developing. There will be some overrunning moisture on Wednesday, as the cold front pushes south, and this will spark the lingering precipitation. Some data even suggests sleet mixing in with rain just as the precipitation comes to an end. At this time I don’t see any major problems for Wednesday. However, if overrunning moisture lingers into Wednesday night there could be some trouble spots, especially over Lamar, Winston, and Marion Counties. An area of high pressure will reinforce the cold air late Thursday and we will have sunshine returning. Highs will be near 50, with lows in the 20s. At this time it looks like another high pressure cell will drop in early next week. Therefore, I’m expecting dry weather with cold nights through the weekend and start of next week.

Wes Wyatt
WVUA Chief Meteorologist

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update; Posted at 2:45 p.m.

After a cool day, with temperatures reaching the lower 50s in many locations, we are about get into a complicated setup. First, the remainder of the day will be cool, with mostly cloudy skies around; that will last through the overnight and lows will approach 36 degrees. A warm front will get set to lift though the area on Monday, which will include a south flow and a warm-up. Highs will make it into the lower 60s in Tuscaloosa, but upper 60s are expected for locations south of HWY 80. I can’t rule out a stray shower on Tuesday, but the chance of rain is very small and will mainly be north of Tuscaloosa. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue to exist across much of Alabama.

A cold front will reach central Alabama during the morning hours on Wednesday, which will cool us down into the lower and middle 50s. The front will become parallel to the upper-air flow, which will stall it out along I-20/59. This will be a day where cold temperatures north of Tuscaloosa and warm 60s in south Alabama. A deep trough will dig down into the heartland of the nation, which will move the front slowly to the south. There will be a state-wide coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms during this process on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect highs in the middle 50s on Thursday.

Here’s where the forecast gets very complicated. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front, which will bring a large batch of rain to portions of the state on Thursday; it will be a cool rain, with many locations in the 50s for highs. Depending on where the front stalls out, will determine what track the low will take. If the low tracks too far south, most of us will be dry and cold, but if the low tracks over central Alabama, we will be in the set-up for some heavy rain. I haven’t latched onto a solution just yet, as there are a lot of conflictions in the models. We’ve seen this setup many times before, where a costal low forms and spreads a chilly rain across the state, but the big questions is how much cold air will be available. One of our reliable computer models show rain changing to snow late Thursday night, with accumulations north of Tuscaloosa. We’ll have to wait a few more model runs before I forecast that type of snow, so for now, we will mention the chance for rain changing to a little snow late Thursday night and Friday morning. This is a developing situation that needs to be watched closely. Be sure to watch tonight at 10 p.m. for the latest on your forecast. Also, tomorrow night, Wes Wyatt will have a more answers to any wintry weather in the forecast.

As for the rest of the weekend, we’ll dry out and stay chilly on Friday; highs will be in the 40s on Friday, and a slow warm-up into the 50s can be expected on Saturday. Have a great day!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

Saturday Evening Weather Update; Posted at 8:20 p.m.

I hope your Saturday has been nice. If you were outside today, you’ve noticed a big difference between the warm 70s yesterday and the chilly 50s today. A cold front moved through the area before daylight, which sent temperatures in a downhill direction. Temperatures stayed in the 50s for much of the day. Now that the sun has set, temperatures are beginning to get colder. Many locations are in the 40s, but with clouds hanging around, we won’t get cold in a hurry. Low level clouds act as a blanket and keep the temperatures from quickly dropping off. We’ll see some showers south of Tuscaloosa tonight, but rainfall will be light. Also, as clouds break apart after midnight, temperatures will be allowed to reach the upper 30s. With some low level moisture present, we will also see some fog developing after midnight.

Tomorrow, we’ll have some clearing, with a mix of sun and clouds. Expect more chilly weather to be here, as highs approach the lower 50s. There is still a chance for a shower or two south of town; this will mainly be in the morning hours. Sunday night, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s. A big warm-up is in the forecast for Monday, as highs top out in the lower 60s. As a warm front lifts northward across the state, we’ll get a south flow on Monday and Tuesday. We will continue to see partly cloudy skies for Monday and Tuesday, with a few showers developing on Tuesday. I have a 30% chance for rain in the forecast for areas north of Tuscaloosa. I think everyone south of I–20/59 will remain dry. On Tuesday, highs will make the middle 60s, and upper 60s can be expected on Wednesday.

A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the state on Thursday, which will bring a state-wide coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Instability values don’t look impressive, so don’t expect severe weather. It will be a tricky forecast on Thursday, with a huge contrast in temperatures. Hamilton may stay in the 40s all day, Tuscaloosa will reach 60 degrees around midnight, and Demopolis will experience middle to upper 60s. A slow moving front will move from northwest to southeast across our viewing area. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through much of Thursday. On Friday, temperatures will be in the 40s, with a brisk north wind. Skies will clear out during the day, and a warm up will begin on Saturday, with highs in the upper 50s. Be sure to join us tonight at 10 pm for the latest on your forecast on WVUA-TV. Have a great day!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

2 Day QPF Image

This image displays the 2 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from HPC (The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center).