Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Update/Tropical Update – 6:30 PM

A good Wednesday evening to you! Be sure to scroll down for the latest on a developing gulf storm. This system could bring some big impacts to Alabama with heavy rain and gusty winds.

The short term forecast won’t change that much. An isolates shower or storm is possible this evening and again on Thursday. The chance of rain is low, but temperatures will remain high. Highs will continue to top out in the middle to upper 90s through Friday. Winds will gradually increase as the pressure gradient increases between a high pressure to the north and the developing low to the south. Look for a nice 10 to 20mph breeze through Friday and Saturday.

The medium range forecast all depends on what happens with the developments of Lee. Much of Saturday will remain dry, but afternoon storms will become possible for areas south of Tuscaloosa. Heavy rain will then start to spread inland along the immediate coastal sections of the state. Rain should hold off for the Alabama Football Game on Saturday, but rain could become a good bet on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Some cooler air moves in on Wednesday and Thursday, as highs settle back into the 80s.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Tropical Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico… Alabama Impacts? Wednesday Update 5 PM

If you have plans to the Alabama Gulf Coast this weekend, we’re going to have some big issues. A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico will likely become tropical storm Lee by Friday. Many of the tropical models as well as global models develop this into a tropical storm. Most data also move it into the central Gulf Coast States.

With very warm water temperatures and low wind shear, I wouldn’t be surprised if this system quickly develops into a tropical storm or weak hurricane. That all depends on how much time it spends in the gulf and its exact track.

Our thinking right now…. Look for heavy rain to develop along the coastal sections of Alabama on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The rain will gradually spread north and should move into the Tuscaloosa area Saturday night or Sunday. With a strong low to our south and strong high to our north, a tight pressure gradient will give us a howling east wind on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. If the center of this storm moves inland along the Alabama or Mississippi Gulf Coast, much of west Alabama will have some winds gusting over 30 MPH. There is a chance of very heavy rain across parts of Alabama, where flooding could become an issue. The best chance of this will happen south of Demopolis.

Again, this could all change as new data comes in. Stay with us for more updates soon to come.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Storm Lee Ahead for the Gulf of Mexico? Tropical Update 10 PM Tuesday

Here’s the latest 0Z run of the NAM, which is valid for Saturday morning. For everyone who has plans for the Alabama Football game on Saturday, I’m sure you’ll be paying close attention to the forecast. If the NAM is right, rain bands would start moving into south Alabama Saturday morning but should not threaten the Tuscaloosa area. It’s a close call… While this model brings it closer to Alabama, most data keeps it away from our area. With an approaching trough from the northwest, we have to atleast put some confidence in northern Gulf Coast storm.

Data also keeps this feature fairly disorganized and well below hurricane strength, but we’ll watch it close. Right now, the area of disturbed weather is in the Caribbean. Since water temperatures are in the upper 80s to lower 90s, a tropical storm would have potential to rapidly develop.

Again, don’t change plans for Saturday just yet. We’ll know a lot more by this time tomorrow night. At this point, I think the best bet is for a Texas or west Louisiana landfall.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – Updated 4:30 PM

A good Tuesday to you! After a nice start to the day, it’s much hotter this afternoon. Many folks are feeling temperatures near 100 degrees. As of 4 PM, Tuscaloosa is at 99 degrees. Radar and satellite is very quiet this afternoon, so don’t expect any rain through the rest of the day. In-fact, rain chances will remain very low through the weekend.

Rain chances will increase on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow for temperatures to drop a few degrees due to the extra clouds and some storms. We will also be watching some tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico. Data continues to develop a tropical storm in the central Gulf, with a landfall somewhere between central Louisiana and south Texas. With an approaching trough, it’s possible that this system itself or tropical moisture from it will move into the state ahead of a cold front. There are still more questions than answers, but the best bet that any rain from this feature would occur on Labor Day. We’ll continue to sift through data and fine-tune the forecast.

If you have plans to the Alabama football game on Saturday, the chance of rain is low at this point, but a stray storm is possible. It will be a hot and humid day, with highs near 95. Heat index values could top 100, so make sure you drink plenty of water to stay well hydrated.

As a cold front moves into the state, rain chances will come and go on Monday and Tuesday. Dry air should take over on Wednesday.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Another Major Hurricane In The Making… Tropical Storm Katia Update 12:15 PM Tuesday Update

Tropical Storm Katia has formed in the Atlantic this morning and afternoon. Katia is becoming better organized and will likely become a major hurricane in 5 days. This storm doesn’t look like a gulf threat at this point.  Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KATIA HAS DECREASED AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BETTER DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT 40 KT.  WITH WEAKENING SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 28 DEG C…KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS…WHICH
SHOWS KATIA NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 285/16. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Action In The Gulf? Monday Update at 5 PM

We’re watching data close this afternoon, as models are indicating tropical development on Wednesday and Thursday. Above is the 18Z run of the NAM for Thursday night at midnight. This shows a developing tropical storm, moving in the direction of Texas. Data is picking up on a tropical wave in the Caribbean. We have a couple of days to watch it, but our forecast models are keeping it away from Alabama at this point. If it moves into Texas, it could move into Texas over the weekend. Stay tuned for updates!

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Monday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:30 PM Update

A good Monday to you! Today is the anniversary of catastrophic Hurricane Katrina. Be sure to scroll down for thoughts on that. Temperatures this morning were fairly cool, as we have a dry, north flow. Dry air heats and cools very effectively, so a cool start to the day ended up hot this afternoon. Temperatures topped out near 100 in spots, but it’s a dry heat. The dry air is giving us a slight break when it comes to the oppressive heat.

Conditions will remain dry through atleast Friday. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 90s. Expect a sunny sky each day, with fairly cool nights and hot afternoons. Moisture will gradually increase by Friday, Saturday and Sunday. This will allow for the afternoon storm chances to increase to 30%. I don’t expect anything major for the Alabama Football weekend, but you may have to dodge a few rain drops.

Temperatures will gradually trend downhill over the weekend and early next week. This will be a result of an increase in clouds and moisture. Highs will top out in the middle 90s over the weekend and lower 90s by early next week. With an increase in moisture, temperatures at night will warm back into the 70s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com