Good Wednesday afternoon! Clouds are gradually increasing this afternoon across Alabama, as a storm system gets organized west of the state. At this hour, rain is breaking along and west of the Mississippi River, with batches of heavy rain in parts of Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas and Missouri. As the surface low tracks northeast and a cold front pushes east, the areas of rain will move our way. At this point, I don’t expect any rain over the next 24 hours, but rain will increase quickly tomorrow evening and night. If you have plans outdoors this evening or tonight, expect temperatures to gradually cool into the lower 70s at 7pm and middle to upper 60s at 10pm and midnight. Skies will remain cloudy to mostly cloudy.
Halloween day looks mild and dry, with only a small risk of a passing shower or two during the early afternoon hours. Highs will reach the upper 70s or lower 80s. A batch of strong to severe storms will develop and track across Mississippi and Tennessee during the afternoon hours on Thursday, but the storms will gradually weaken as the cross into Alabama. Instability over Alabama is expected to remain very low, and the best dynamics will pass well north of Alabama. These lacking severe weather ingredients should prevent big problems locally. That being said, there is a chance storms could produce isolated wind damage over northwest Alabama Thursday evening, but mainly in areas northwest of Aliceville and Jasper.
What time will the rain arrive… Look for heavy rain and storms to enter extreme northwest Alabama around 4 or 5pm, then track southeast over the next few hours. Storms will then reach the Tuscaloosa area between 5pm and 7pm, then track east of the Birmingham area between 8pm and 10pm. Here’s the catch… Once the rain starts in your area, rain will continue for much of the night, as the slow moving cold front tracks across the state. There will be some lightning and thunder involved, but the risk of severe weather is really low. If you have plans after dark tomorrow, make sure you keep an eye on the latest weather conditions. If possible, some events may need to be rescheduled to earlier on Thursday or another day this week… Below is the map of the time line and where there is a low risk of isoalted severe storms… Again, storms are very likely across west Alabama between 5pm and 11pm, then east Alabama between 10pm and 5am.
Cooler and drier air will quickly take over on Friday, with a high in the lower 70s. Skies will become sunny on Friday and remain sunny through the entire weekend. Temperatures will drop into the 60s for highs on Sunday, as a secondary push of cooler air takes over. Lows at night will fall into the upper 30s Saturday night. Some areas may stay in the 60s all day on Saturday too…
DON’T FORGET!!! Daylight savings time will end at 2am Sunday morning, so you will want to set your clock back one hour before you go to bed Saturday night. This will also be a great time to check the batteries in your smoke detector.
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