Cooler, Drier Days Ahead… Monday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Monday afternoon! A much advertised cold front is moving southeast across Alabama this afternoon, which will bring a nice airmass change to the state. At 4:30pm, a few scattered storms were oriented from northeast to southwest across central Alabama, but some areas will miss out on the rain. Given the drought situation, it would be nice to see a more widespread coverage of storms, but unfortunately, there’s not enough coverage to combat the drought. Temperatures will drop into the middle 60s overnight, as the front slowly tracks southeast across the state.

We’ll still have a mix of sun and clouds on Tuesday before the main surge of dry air moves in this week, with highs in the lower 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas along and north of HWY 278 will remain in the 70s for highs both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will drop into the middle or upper 50s Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

A secondary surge of cooler and drier air will move in on Thursday, with highs both Thursday and Friday in the upper 70s. Skies will be in full sunshine mode Thursday through the weekend, with no risk of rain. Lows will dip well into the lower 50s Thursday night and Friday night, with a few spots reaching the upper 40s across north Alabama!

In the tropics, we’re watching a very large tropical low develop in the central Atlantic. All models agree this will become a tropical storm by mid week and a hurricane later this week. The system will move across the southern Lesser Antilles by mid to late week, so interests there need to carefully monitor the intensification. Some models develop this into a major hurricane in the central Caribbean, then turn the storm north into Greater Antilles. This would be in response to the trough across the eastern US, if the storm indeed catches the trough north. This would lead to the possibility to the storm turning north before reaching the US, however, if the storm misses the trough, it could progress further west. We’ll carefully watching this one, but the risk of it impacting our local weather appears low at this time… not impossible… just a low risk for now. If evidence points towards this becoming a Gulf storm, I will update you.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Pattern Change Coming. Rain Chances Monday, First Taste of Fall.

Finally, a change to this unbearably warm pattern is on the way. Monday morning looks like another mild start, with temperatures climbing in the afternoon. Some much needed rain is in the forecast for Monday, although as drought conditions continue to get worse, the spotty shower and storm coverage Monday afternoon and evening likely won’t make any drastic improvements to our drought situation.

Monday is also our last day in the 90s for a while. Sunshine returns Tuesday, and brings with it a significant change in temperatures. Highs will only be topping out in the low to mid 80s this week, and low temperatures will be topping out in the mid 50s to around 60. This week won’t exactly be frigid, but it will be a nice relief from the heat we have been dealing with all summer long.

Monday Bus Stop Forecast: Mild morning, but hot in the afternoon. Be sure to pack some rain gear with the kids, as a few scattered storms will be possible when they come home from school.

Tropics:

We are continuing to monitor this tropical wave, Invest 97-L, in the open Atlantic. It is moving westward at about 20 mph, and has a high likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days as it enters the southern Caribbean Sea. We are still about 2 weeks away from this having any impact on US weather, but as we enter the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, this will be a system everyone on the WVUA23 weather team will monitor closely.

 

 

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Alex Puckett
WVUA Weekend Weather Anchor
Twitter: @puckettwx
Facebook: Meteorologist Alex Puckett

 

 

Hot Sunday; Cooldown Next Week.

Another hot, summerlike afternoon is in store for west Alabama on Sunday. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day, and temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s. Monday, a cold front makes its way through the state, bringing with it increased cloud cover and a few scattered showers and storms. Behind this front, our first taste of fall weather awaits. It isn’t exactly time to dust off your jackets and scarves, but next week will bring a significant cooldown compared to the temperatures we have been dealing with this weekend. Expect lows in the mornings to be in the upper 50s and low 60s, and afternoon highs likely wont get much above the low 80s, and it doesnt appear any rain will make its way into the forecast from Wednesday through Saturday.

Tropics: 

A tropical wave in the open Atlantic will move westward into the Caribbean over the next 5-7 days, and has a high likelihood (70%) of developing into a tropical cyclone. We are still a long ways out from this having any sort of impact on US weather, but all of us on the WVUA23 weather team will monitor this closely and keep you informed.

 

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Alex Puckett
WVUA Weekend Weather Anchor
Twitter: @puckettwx
Facebook: Meteorologist Alex Puckett

Hot Weekend… Cooler Next Week… Friday Forecast Update – 5pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Friday afternoon! It has turned out very hot this afternoon across Alabama, with most areas reaching the middle to upper 90s. Jasper reached 100 this afternoon! A strong upper air ridge is responsible for the summer like conditions and will remain in place through the weekend.

Football Friday is looking dry across all of central Alabama, with temperatures in the middle 80s at 7pm and upper 70s at 10pm. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight.

Saturday, Alabama takes on Kent State in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Expect upper 80s at the 11am kickoff, with temperatures climbing into the middle 90s by early afternoon. It’s going to be a dangerously hot game, so drink lots of water if you’re going to the game.

Auburn takes on LSU in Auburn on Saturday. Kickoff is at 5pm, with temperatures in the upper 80s. By the end of the game, temperatures will approach 80 degrees, under a mostly clear sky.

We can expect a cold front to reach Alabama Monday night, with a risk of a few scattered showers and storms. If the front makes it through central Alabama, temperatures will drop a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately, models are really backing off on the amount of rain with this front, so it doesn’t appear that we will get a lot of relief from drought conditions. Expect highs to back down into the lower 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the middle to upper 50s Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Sunshine will return on Wednesday and Thursday.

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Karl will be impacting Bermuda tonight, possibly as a minimum hurricane. Karl will turn out to sea and not impact the US. Lisa will fizzle in the central Atlantic; in-fact, that is happening now. I’m interested in a new tropical wave coming off Africa, as it is at a lower latitude and may approach the Caribbean in 5 to 6 days. There are too many uncertainties to speculate where it will go and if it will even develop at all… We’ll watch it carefully.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Hot Days For Now… Some Rain and Cooler Air Possible Next Week… Thursday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Thursday afternoon! Today is the first official day of fall, yet it still feels like summer. Highs have managed to reach the lower to middle 90s across the state, as we continue under the influence of a summer ridge. Fortunately, humidity has been rather low today.

Friday through the weekend will continue much of the same, with very hot days and mild nights. The core of the upper air ridge will remain over our area through the weekend. Highs will easily reach the lower to middle 90s Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Heat index will approach the upper 90s to near 100 on Friday and Saturday.

Football Friday is looking dry across all of central Alabama, with temperatures in the middle 80s at 7pm and upper 70s at 10pm. Skies will remain mostly clear Friday night.

Saturday, Alabama takes on Kent State in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Expect upper 80s at the 11am kickoff, with temperatures climbing into the middle 90s by early afternoon. It’s going to be a dangerously hot game, so drink lots of water if you’re going to the game.

Auburn takes on LSU in Auburn on Saturday. Kickoff is at 5pm, with temperatures in the upper 80s. By the end of the game, temperatures will approach 80 degrees, under a mostly clear sky.

Our local forecast gets very complicated early next week, as a cold front tries to approach west Alabama. If the front makes it through the area, expect much cooler air to arrive sometime late Monday or on Tuesday. If the front stalls to our west, we will atleast notice an increase in clouds and the chance of some showers or storms early next week. Given how inconsistent our forecast models are with this system, confidence is low. We’ll fine-tune the numbers as we get closer.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Hot Through The Weekend… A Little Cooler Next Week.. Wednesday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Wednesday afternoon! It has turned out to be another hot summer day across Alabama, with our area reaching the lower to middle 90s this afternoon. A few high cirrus clouds have moved across portions of Alabama, which is helping battle the afternoon heat a little. Fortunately, dewpoints remain low this afternoon, so heat index is not a factor.

An intense upper air ridge will continue to build over the area on Thursday and will remain with us through the weekend. This means our local weather will be hot and dry. Dewpoints will rise some by Friday and Saturday, allowing for heat index values to approach 100 during the afternoon hours. Expect plenty of sunshine each day through Sunday. Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s, with lows modifying to near 70 overnight. Fall formally begins on Thursday, but it will feel far from typical fall conditions!

Next week appears to be rather complicated, as a battle occurs between a ridge over the southeast and an advancing trough across the central US. If the ridge weakens enough to allow the trough and associated cold front to reach Alabama Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, we would experience mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of periods of rain and storms. Air temperatures in that case would be cooler, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However, if the ridge remains strong and the front never reaches Alabama, our local weather would remain hot and dry. Based off model trends, I’ve included atleast some risk of showers and storms early next week, but confidence remains rather low at this time. As models come in better agreement, we will have a much better handle on the forecast over the next day or so.

In the tropics, we have Tropical Depression Karl and Tropical Storm Lisa. Karl should become better organized and may become a hurricane over the weekend. Karl will brush Bermuda over the weekend, but a US impact is not expected. Lisa will battle wind shear and dry air over the next few days, but will not impact the US. We’ll be watching other systems with interest over the next few weeks, but I don’t see an immediate risk to the US.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Hot Days Continue… Little to No Rain Ahead…Tuesday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Tuesday afternoon! It has turned out to be another hot day across Alabama, with plenty of sunshine. Highs have reached the lower to middle 90s across the entire state, with a few upper 80s over far northeast Alabama. Fortunately, humidity is much lower today, allowing for a slight break in the extreme heat. Expect a nice evening, with temperatures dropping into the middle 70s by 10pm and upper 60s before sunrise tomorrow morning.

Wednesday will include a hot and dry day, with air temperatures reaching the lower 90s. Humidity will remain low on Wednesday and Thursday, so I don’t expect any extreme heat in the forecast with oppressive humidity. However, highs in the lower 90s will feel hot enough relative to the averages for late September.

Moisture will increase slightly over the weekend, adding a slight discomfort to the air. Lows will warm into the lower 70s, as the dewpoints rise and prevent cooler nights. There are signs of lower dewpoints returning to Alabama early next week, which will allow for air temperatures to get cooler at night. I don’t see any signs of a strong cold front just yet, but we are seeing signs of cooler air in the weeks ahead, as we move into Fall. Fall officially begins on Thursday.

In the tropics, we have Tropical Storm Karl (wind: 40mph) and Tropical Storm Lisa. Karl will brush Bermuda Friday night and early Saturday before turning northeast into the open Atlantic. Lisa has winds of 45mph and will likely turn north over the next few days. Karl and Lisa are no risk to the US.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott