Storms Ahead… Wednesday Forecast Update – 5:30pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Wednesday afternoon! Our local weather remains rather mild across Alabama this evening, with temperatures in the 60s. A weak cold front moved through Alabama lastnight and did manage to drop temperatures today by about 5 to 10 degrees. A south wind will develop tonight, and very warm/tropical air will return quickly to Alabama. This will set the stage to a developing storm system west of Alabama on Thursday.

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Patchy fog is possible overnight, as moisture increases. Temperatures will remain nearly steady all night, with lows in the lower 60s and skies becoming cloudy. A vigorous shortwave trough becomes negative tilted on Thursday over the Mississippi River Valley. The trough and associated weak cold front will spark the development of showers and storms across Alabama by lunch on Thursday. Rain and storms will then spread eastward into the afternoon and evening hours Thursday. Forecast models indicate enough uplift, wind shear and instability to have a concern for a few storms becoming strong or perhaps severe. The risk remains limited, but be weather alert during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely for the Thursday event.

We will catch a break in the action on Friday, with only a small chance of showers across portions of central Alabama. Temperatures will remain very warm on Friday, with highs in the lower 70s.

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The weekend gets rather complicated. A very deep upper air trough will become negatively tilted, with strong uplift passing over the state. A small scale disturbance ahead of the main trough will bring a round of rain and storms to Alabama on Saturday. Models indicate the mix of uplift, windshear and instability will be very impressive, which is concerning for a January event, however, there is a fair chance coastal storms develop on Saturday and could block the inflow of unstable air into central Alabama. If this indeed occurs, our severe weather risk on Saturday would be greatly limited to coastal areas of deep south Alabama.

As the main trough axis and surface front swings towards Alabama on Sunday, we have another opportunity to get a batch of heavy rain and storms across central Alabama. These storms also have the chance to become severe. Models are having a tough time on the setup for Sunday, so it may take a little more time for confidence to increase on a scenario. There is a fair chance coastal storms on Sunday could also limit the risk, but I don’t want you to let your guard down! The weekend event needs to be watched very carefully, as it has a potential to produce severe weather across portions of the deep south.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Ahead… Wednesday AM Update – 8:30am #alwx @wvua23

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Good Wednesday morning! We’re still carefully watching forecast trends over the next several days, as we deal with 2 rounds of heavy rain and storms across Alabama. Both rounds have the potential to bring strong to perhaps a few severe storms. Round 1 comes in Thursday afternoon, with a low end risk of strong to severe storms. Round 2 comes over the weekend; in-fact, the weekend event could come in 2 waves of storms. One on Saturday and a second wave of storms on Sunday.

Above is the 500mb vorticity look at the shortwave trough coming in Thursday afternoon. The trough goes slightly negative tilt and will provide plenty of uplift over Alabama. The amount of instability, uplift and wind shear does support a risk of strong storms, with isolated severe storms. Given the amount of rain expected to develop and the forecasted nearly saturated atmosphere, that may limit the risk. Anytime after lunch Thursday into Thursday night, there is a risk of heavy rain, gusty winds and an isolated, small spin-up tornado. Large hail is not expected and the flooding risk is low Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. That wave will move to the east late Thursday night, but cold is not associated with this round.

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Above is a look at the weekend system. As you can look and compare this one with Thursday’s event, the weekend setup is much more impressive in terms of uplift and dynamics involved. The upper air trough goes negative tilt, which will provide strong uplift in our local area. Models are hinting at a small piece of energy kicking out ahead of the main trough Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, which may produce a risk of strong to severe storms across Alabama. While that is in question, it is a distinct possibility, so be alert through the day on Saturday. It is also possible for Coastal convection to develop and limit the risk of severe weather on Saturday, as that tends to block the inflow of unstable air into central Alabama. As we get closer, we’ll have a much better understanding of a time-line and threat category.

Sunday will bring another wave of rain and storms, as the main trough passes through the area. Depending on what time the front reaches central Alabama will greatly determine how serious the severe weather threat becomes in our area. Midday to early afternoon surface heating would drive instability much higher, ahead of a very impressive storm system. If the front passes through Sunday morning, that could reduce the risk of severe storms on Sunday somewhat, plus, the possibility of coastal convection could also limit the risk on Sunday. Again, as we get closer to the weekend, we’ll be able to give you a much more clear picture of what will happen. There is a real possibility this event could become a serious threat, or it could be a limited risk due to some limiting factors discussed above. Keep checking back for updates…

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Several Waves of Storms Ahead… Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday afternoon! At 4:30pm, a band of rain and storms is slowly moving east across the northwest portion of Alabama, with rain falling in areas around Vernon, Hamilton, Fayette and Haleyville. A few isolated showers have popped up in other spots across western Alabama, but the heavier rain will remain to the northwest of I-59 this evening.

Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s tonight, as a slow moving cold front sags southward across the state. An isolated shower or two will be possible on Wednesday, but heavy rain is not expected. Skies remain mostly cloudy, with a high in the upper 60s, a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.

Below is my thoughts from earlier this afternoon on the severe weather possibilities ahead..

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I’m carefully watching 2 storm systems that will impact our weather this week and into the weekend. The first round of heavy rain and storms will arrive Thursday afternoon, ending Thursday night. The second round of heavy rain and storms will arrive sometime Saturday night into the day on Sunday.

Above is the zone where I think there will be a chance of a few strong and perhaps an isolated severe storm Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A vigorous shortwave trough will swing eastward across the southern Mississippi River Valley, sparking the development of a weak surface low and providing lots of uplift to enhance a risk of heavy rain and storms. Instability will be lacking with this event, but there will be enough wind shear, uplift and instability combination over west Alabama for a small chance of storms becoming strong and possibly a severe storm or two. The main time frame would be 5pm Thursday through 2am Friday. Gusty winds would be the main risk, but an isolated spin-up tornado isn’t out of the question. Given the expected widespread heavy rain, the severe weather risk should remain really low.

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Our next system to watch arrives over the weekend. This one is much more impressive given the uplift, wind shear and available instability. Above is a look at the 500mb vorticity. This shows a very deep upper air trough axis becoming negatively tilted. The energy with this system is impressive.

A deep surface low will develop over Texas and move northeast into the Arkansas and Tennessee. This should place central and west Alabama in the prime location for strong to severe storms, but all of this could easily change. The placement and strength of the surface low could change, increasing or decreasing the risk. I have seen a few model runs track the low right across central Alabama, which would limit the risk for the northern half of the state. There is also a possibility of widespread coastal storms, which would block the inflow of unstable air into central and west Alabama. I think there is a fair chance storms on the coast limit the risk, but there is no doubt this one needs to be watched carefully. Keep checking back for more updates as we get closer to the weekend and as forecast confidence increases. This could easily turn into a heavy rain event with some storms or it could become a serious severe weather threat. For now, there is too much inconsistency in our data to lay out a specific threat.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Active Weather Ahead… Quick Midday Tuesday Update – 12:15pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday midday! I’m carefully watching 2 storm systems that will impact our weather this week and into the weekend. The first round of heavy rain and storms will arrive Thursday evening, ending Thursday night. The second round of heavy rain and storms will arrive sometime Saturday night into the day on Sunday.

Above is a simulated radar off the RPM, which is a high resolution computer model. A vigorous shortwave trough will swing eastward across the southern Mississippi River Valley, sparking the development of a weak surface low and providing lots of uplift to enhance a risk of heavy rain and storms. Instability will be lacking with this event, but there will be enough wind shear, uplift and instability combination over west Alabama for a small chance of storms becoming strong and possibly a severe storm or two. The main time frame would be 5pm Thursday through 2am Friday. Gusty winds would be the main risk, but an isolated spin-up tornado isn’t out of the question. Given the expected widespread heavy rain, the severe weather risk should remain really low.

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Our next system to watch arrives over the weekend. This one is much more impressive given the uplift, wind shear and available instability. Above is a look at the 500mb vorticity. This shows a very deep upper air trough axis becoming negatively tilted. The energy with this system is impressive.

A deep surface low will develop over Texas and move northeast into the Arkansas and Tennessee. This should place central and west Alabama in the prime location for strong to severe storms, but all of this could easily change. The placement and strength of the surface low could change, increasing or decreasing the risk. I have seen a few model runs track the low right across central Alabama, which would limit the risk for the northern half of the state. There is also a possibility of widespread coastal storms, which would block the inflow of unstable air into central and west Alabama. I think there is a fair chance storms on the coast limit the risk, but there is no doubt this one needs to be watched carefully. Keep checking back for more updates as we get closer to the weekend and as forecast confidence increases. This could easily turn into a heavy rain event with some storms or it could become a serious severe weather threat. For now, there is too much inconsistency in our data to lay out a specific threat.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Mild Days Continue… Severe Risks Possible Ahead… Monday Forecast Update 5:30pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday afternoon! Our local weather has been very mild again this afternoon, with most of central and west Alabama reaching the lower to middle 70s for highs. Skies have remained mostly cloudy, evident of moisture and uplift across the southeast. We’ll continue to deal with the fetch of tropical moisture northward into Alabama over the next several days.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s tonight, under a mostly cloudy sky. A few isolated showers are possible tonight, especially northwest of I-59. A few showers will remain possible generally near and northwest of I-59 on Tuesday, but I do not expect an all day rain and some areas will not get rain. Highs will reach the middle 70s on Tuesday, with lower 70s for highs on Wednesday.

A vigorous shortwave trough will dig across the southern Mississippi River Valley, sparking the development of a surface low and widespread showers and storms. Storms will become numerous sometime Thursday evening or Thursday night. With a little surface based instability, wind shear and uplift ahead of the front, we’ll have to keep an eye on anything becoming strong to severe. Models hint at widespread rain developing ahead of the storms, which could limit a risk of anything becoming severe. As we get closer to Thursday, I’ll update you on the threats.

Friday and most of Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. A few showers are possible both Friday and Saturday, but a soaking widespread rain is not expected.

By Saturday night, a very intense, negatively tilted shortwave trough digs across the southern Mississippi River Valley, sparking a rapidly deepening surface low over Arkansas. Gulf moisture will be pulled northward into central Alabama, with a strong low level jet developing, moisture and instability will be pulled rapidly northward into central Alabama. Fuel for storms, as well as strong uplift, cold air aloft, and strong wind shear could lead to a healthy severe weather threat across portions of central and west Alabama sometime Saturday night into the day on Sunday. The key in making or breaking this from becoming a severe weather threat will be whether or not coastal storms will rob the inflow of unstable air deep into Alabama. Like our last event, it’s possible storms near the coast prevent a risk in our part of Alabama. Given we’re 5 to 6 days out, anything could easily change, and it is important to keep checking back with us for updates as we get closer. Hopefully, model data will become more set on storms to the south to prevent a risk here!

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Gloomy, Warm Weather On The Way…Sunday Evening Update 7:40p.m.

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Good Sunday evening! Today was another fantastic day, weather-wise. Unfortunately, we’ve got big changes coming tomorrow for the start of the work week. Tonight, we will start to see clouds developing over portions of central Alabama as high pressure ridging starts to break down. Temperatures will remain mild. A big difference tonight to several past evenings will be slightly stronger southerly flow keeping an major fog development from taking place. Tomorrow will see that high pressure ridging over the southeast slowly breaking down still; that will lead to a chance of a few stray showers tomorrow afternoon for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Tuesday will see an approaching trough trying to slide into the state. As it approaches the I-20 corridor, the system will start to try and stall during Tuesday evening. This stalled trough will provide enough lift to get a fair amount of stray showers to fire up. A more robust pocket of air will aid in forcing to get Tuesday’s weak trough out. The stronger forcing Wednesday could aid in producing a few rumbles of thunder along with the passing showers. Thursday, negative tilting of the line of showers could produce some lasting showers for parts of south Alabama. Later Thursday, a new developing low, west, will begin to produce a new line of rain that could also contain some thunderstorms with ample forcing behind the system to get significant lifting.

For now, Friday afternoon and next weekend plan on multiple bands of heavy showers and storms to move through the state. We could see the chance for a low end severe weather event with some of these bands. That said, stay posted with us on any changing updates as we get closer to next weekend.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes
Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes
Twitter: MetRoakes
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Spring Like Weather Continues…Saturday Evening Update 8:10P.M.

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Good Saturday evening! Today was a pre-spring taste of warm weather across the southeastern portion of the U.S. Here at home, highs ranged between 72 and 79 degrees. The crazy thing is, but not necessarily bad, temperatures will continue to remain about this warm for the remainder of this weekend and even a majority of next work week. Tonight, mild conditions are going to lead to the development of fog across much of central Alabama that will last into tomorrow morning. Sky conditions will gradually clear for most overnight, making for a mostly sunny start tomorrow morning once the fog dissipates. As Sunday progresses, southerly flow pulling in warm, moist air and ample sun in the morning will lead to cloud cover developing in the afternoon. The best comparison for tomorrow will be to today’s conditions.

Going into next work week, cloud cover will increase as we prepare for an onslaught of troughs that will deliver several opportunities for both showers and a few thunderstorms. Monday will see the high pressure ridging over the southeast slowly breaking down; that will lead to a chance of a few stray showers Monday afternoon for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Tuesday will see the approaching trough trying to slide into the state. As it approaches the I-20 corridor, the system will start to try and stall during Tuesday evening. A more robust pocket of air will aid in forcing to get Tuesday’s weak trough out. The stronger forcing Wednesday could aid in producing a few rumbles of thunder along with the passing showers. Thursday, negative tilting of the line of showers could produce some lasting showers for parts of south Alabama. Later Thursday, a new developing low, west, will begin to produce a new line of rain that could also contain some thunderstorms with ample forcing behind the system to get significant lifting. This system is still under watch with how conditions will be when that system develops. For now, Friday afternoon and Saturday plan on a band of heavy showers and some storms to move through the state.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes
Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes
Twitter: MetRoakes
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