Watching The Tropics… Ana In The Making… Wednesday Update – 3pm #alwx

untitled

Good Wednesday afternoon! For several days, we have been talking about a developing area of low pressure across the Bahamas, with some risk of this feature becoming a sub-tropical or tropical storm late this week. There’s no doubt, the cluster of storms to the east of Florida is becoming better organized, but notice how the clouds fan off to the north from the low pressure center. There is still a decent amount of south and southwesterly wind shear, which is blowing the clouds and storm to the northeast. For tropical development, there must be little to no wind shear. Wind shear will weaken a bit over the next few days, so some slow development is likely.

Despite what you may hear on some TV channels and on social media, this will not be a major system. Unfortunately, some people simply live off hype in order to increase ratings. I do not believe in this method and would rather explain what is expected to happen. Here are the limiting factors for rapid development:

1. Dry air is getting pulled into the circulation from the west. Dry air tends to choke these systems and limit thunderstorm activity. Forecast models continue to hint at dry air near the circulation through the weekend.

2. Wind shear is currently preventing rapid development, but wind shear will be decreasing over the next few days, so that will allow some slow development.

3. Cool water temperatures… Water temperatures are generally in the lower to middle 70s east of Florida and into the coastal sections of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. For hurricane development, water temperatures need to be atleast 80 degrees, if not warmer. The potential energy for tropical systems to get going is really low this time of the year. This is one main reason the peak of the hurricane season is August and September. Water temperatures are not only the warmest at the surface that time of the year, warm water temperatures also extend much deeper below the ocean surface.

What will likely happen: The circulation will gradually become better organized over the next few days, with a good chance it will be classified as a sub-tropical or tropical storm on Thursday or Friday. With the limiting factors present, I don’t expect anything stronger than a moderate tropical storm prior to landfall. The low will likely be very small, so impacts will only affect a small area, generally near the coastal sections of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Wind will not be a big deal with this system, but rain and rip current will become the main issues. Keep in mind, the low will generate rip current issues along the entire east coast of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Alabama will not have any rain/wind impacts out of this event…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also,look us up on facebook and twitter. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Hot Days Ahead…Watching Tropics… Tuesday Forecast Update – 3:45pm #alwx

Warnings_1040

Good Tuesday afternoon! Our local weather has turned out rather hot this afternoon, especially in west Alabama, where temperatures have reached into the middle 80s. With a mostly sunny sky and dry airmass in place, it doesn’t take much for the early May Sun to heat us up. Expect temperatures to gradually fall this evening, with most areas in the upper 70s by 7pm, then upper 60s at 10pm. Lows tonight will fall into the 58 to 61 degree range. There is no risk of rain for our area this evening or tonight.

Wednesday through Friday will include a slow warming trend. High pressure remains in control, keeping our weather quiet. With an upper air ridge over the area, temperatures will really spike into the upper 80s by Thursday and Friday.

Mother’s Day Weekend is looking hot and dry. While I can’t rule out a very quick afternoon shower, 95% of the state will not get a drop of rain, so I don’t formally have the risk in the 7-day planner. Expect a good dose of sunshine this weekend, with highs in the 88-91 degree range. Lows at night will fall into the lower 60s each night.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Monday and Tuesday. A few spotty showers or storms will become possible, especially late Monday and into Tuesday…

We’re watching the tropics… There is a weak area of low pressure developing near the northern Bahamas. There’s a chance this could become weak sub-tropical storm Ana over the next few days, as it drifts northward towards the coast of east Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. It will bring some rain and wind to these areas, but with cool water temperatures and dry air surrounding the circulation, I don’t expect anything much stronger than a weak sub-tropical storm or tropical storm.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also,look us up on facebook and twitter. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Very Warm Days Ahead… Monday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx

Warnings_1040

Good Monday afternoon! It has turned out to be a very warm day across the state, with temperatures reaching the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Humidity remains low and will remain low for the rest of the week. With a ridge building into the area and a surface high pumping dry air into the state, I don’t expect any rain this week or this weekend.

Any plans this evening will be fine in terms of weather conditions. Temperatures will fall into the upper 70s by 7pm, then upper 60s at 10pm and lower 60s at midnight. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight, with a calm wind.

Tuesday through Sunday will feature a stretch of mostly sunny skies. Highs will slowly warm each day, with middle 80s expected Tuesday and Wednesday, then upper 80s to near 90 on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. With upper level ridging in place, I don’t expect any major rain chances all week. Mother’s Day will feature dry and very warm conditions.

A cold front will pass through the state Monday of next week, with a few storms becoming possible. Most models suggest rain may be scattered or isolated on Monday, so I’ve kept rain chances low.

We’re watching the tropics… There is a weak area of low pressure developing near the northern Bahamas. There’s a chance this could become weak sub-tropical storm Ana over the next few days, as it drifts northward towards the coast of east Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. It will bring some rain and wind to these areas, but with cool water temperatures and dry air surrounding the circulation, I don’t expect anything stronger than a weak sub-tropical storm or tropical storm.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also,look us up on facebook and twitter. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Possible East Coast Tropical Action Soon… Monday Update – 12:05pm #alwx

12

Good Monday midday! We’re a little less than a month away from the kickoff of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we’re already watching something near the Bahamas. An area of low pressure is slowly developing, in a somewhat favorable tropical environment. Keep in mind, water temperatures are still rather cool, and there will be some dry air near the low, so rapid development will not occur. It’s simply too early in the season, as the water temperatures are below the standard hurricane development threshold. However, models continue to indicate a sub-tropical system may develop in the next few days. This isn’t expected to be your classic warm core tropical storm, but it could bring some rain and wind to some areas from the east coast of Florida and points northward into the Carolinas by mid to late week.

The model above is the RPM, valid for Thursday morning. This suggest a weak sub-tropical storm would be impacting the Georgia/South Carolina boarder at that time. I don’t expect any impacts in Alabama in terms of rain or wind, however, sinking air around this system may help to enhance the amount of sunshine here late in the week and to start the weekend. The first name on the list is Ana, so if it becomes a sub-tropical storm, that’s the name it will get…

Just for fun… Most tropical system names are reused. In 2003, Tropical Storm Ana was the earliest storm on record to form in the Atlantic on April 20th.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also,look us up on facebook and twitter. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Break Out the Shades, Sunshine is Here to Stay… Sunday Forecast Update — 7:50pm

sevenday_640

We have had a great weekend weather-wise, warm temperatures and lots of sunshine are a welcome change from the rainy and cloudy weather we saw throughout April. Tonight will be another spectacular night to get out and enjoy the weather as we have mainly clear conditions tonight with temperatures cooling into the mid 50’s. The high pressure that has brought us such nice weather will slowly slide east toward the Carolinas through the first half of the week, keeping us sunny and dry for the first week of May.

Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the week with winds out of the southeast. Monday’s high will be in the low and mid 80’s under a mostly sunny sky. Similar conditions for Tuesday through Friday, with incrementally warmer afternoon highs and morning lows. Friday will start off in the low 60’s before reaching the upper 80’s. The outdoors might feel a bit on the sticky side as we reach the end of the week due to increasing moisture as well.

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on the potential for a low pressure system to develop north of the Bahamas and east of Florida during the week. Should this develop into a tropical system, it will track north toward the Carolina coast, pushing the high pressure back west toward us, further preventing clouds and rain to develop here.

As we head into the weekend, a few extra clouds will return as the high pressure weakens and moves off into the Atlantic. The next low pressure system will not arrive until the beginning of next week.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to pcrank@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like my weather page on Facebook by searching WVUA 23 Peter Crank. You can find me on Twitter by searching Peter Crank or @crankyweather. Another great way to get weather updates!

Join us live on WVUA 23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank
WVUA Staff Meteorologist
Twitter: crankyweather

Sunny Sunday… and Monday… and Tuesday… Saturday Forecast Update — 6:30pm

sevenday_640

Good Saturday evening! Today held beautiful weather of clear skies and temperatures hovering in the upper 70’s here in Tuscaloosa, which helped make the University of Alabama’s graduation today even more pleasant for those who were a part of or attended the the commencement ceremonies honoring the graduates. Tonight, the sky will remain clear with a few clouds will mix in, but no worries about rain as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures tonight will be on the cooler side in the lower 50’s thanks to those clear skies letting the heat of the day escape. Mostly sunny conditions return for Sunday, helping start off the first full week of May warm and filled with ample amounts of sunshine.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend throughout the work week. A surface ridge of high pressure will slowly slide from the Tennessee Valley eastward over the Carolinas and then hold steady along the Atlantic Seaboard, meaning it pushes any rain chances away from us. No rain in the future and plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to gradually build throughout the week as the winds shift to a southeasterly direction. The warming trend will peak as we approach the weekend with high temperatures in the upper 80’s and low’s in the lower 60’s, thankfully, the humidity shouldn’t be oppressive for this week.

Next weekend holds the promise of having clear, almost summer like weather. Temperatures will drop slightly compared to the end of the work week, but no worries because it is still going to be warm!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to pcrank@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like my weather page on Facebook by searching WVUA 23 Peter Crank. You can find me on Twitter by searching Peter Crank or @crankyweather. Another great way to get weather updates!

Join us live on WVUA 23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank
WVUA Staff Meteorologist
Twitter: crankyweather

Dry Now… No Rain Coming… Warmer Days Ahead… Friday Forecast Update – 3:45pm #alwx

Warnings_1040

Good Friday afternoon! After a very wet April across the state, we are in for a stretch of dry weather this weekend and all of next week. This is a very easy forecast, as an area of high pressure will build into the area and remain with us for the next 6 to 7 days. If you have plans outdoors tonight, expect chilly temperatures after sunset, with lows in the upper 40s. Keep in mind, dry air heats and cools very efficiently.

It’s race weekend in Talladega! If you are going to that part of the state, or have interest in the local weather there, expect sunny skies and mild daytime temperatures. Highs will approach the lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the middle 50s. Take the sunscreen!

Monday through Friday will feature a very slow warming trend, with highs in the lower to middle 80s on Monday and Tuesday, then middle to upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. Dewpoints will come up just a tad, but humidity will still remain low. Expect low temperatures to modify into the lower 60s by the middle of next week.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also,look us up on facebook and twitter. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 5,785 other followers