August 25, 2016 Leave a comment
Good Thursday evening! New model data coming in this evening continues to point into the direction of a weak, poorly organized tropical low moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Above is the 0z set of tropical models, and the model spread is very wide, which leads to a low confidence forecast. Some models have the weak tropical low moving towards Brownsville, Texas, while others move the low into the Florida Panhandle.
Here’s the facts as of 9:45pm Thursday… There is a very weak tropical low (not a named storm or hurricane) over the extreme southeast Bahamas, moving west or west northwest towards northern Cuba. Given the land interaction, wind shear and dry air around the system, there’s basically an open swirl on the satellite. Little to no thunderstorm activity is associated with the system, which means it will continue to lose its identity as a tropical wave. There is a real chance this wave just fizzles out and loses it’s energy over Cuba and doesn’t re-organize over the Gulf. While it will be moving into more of a favorable environment over the next few days, I’m not sure if the energy can re-organize into a tropical cyclone.
If you have interest along the coast next week, lets keep an eye on it, however, the risk of a damaging tropical system making landfall looks low at this time.
Let me mention this… The power of social media has led to the spread of poor information of a “major hurricane” coming for the coast. A few models actually suggested this as a possibility earlier this week, but those models have since weakened the system with time. Meanwhile, the thought of this being a major storm continues to get spread across social media. This should serve good example why you need to check your source. If it’s not a post from the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center or your local meteorologists, ignore the post. There is too much false information on social media these days, so it’s never been more important to be cautious what stories you share.
The bottom line… there are still uncertainties with the forecast track and intensity of the tropical low. Keep checking back with us for updates as we move through the weekend and into early next week.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist