Tropical Update on TD # 1… Monday Night Update – 10pm

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It’s official… We now have our first tropical depression of the season. Here’s a discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH…4 KM/H. A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB…29.80 INCHES.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Hot Days… Less Humid by Friday? Monday Update – 4:15pm

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Good Monday afternoon! Our weather has turned very hot this afternoon, as a summer ridge sit right over our area. At 4pm, temperatures are in the lower 90s, but heat index values are in the 99 to 103 degree range. It is interesting to note that the eastern edge of the ridge is over the Alabama/Georgia State line. In response to the edge of the rige in the position, there are numerous strong storms right on the state line. Since the flow around the east edge of a ridge is out of the north, storms in that area are moving south. Rain chances across our part of Alabama will remain very low through Tuesday.

If you have plans outdoors this evening, expect temperatures to remain very mild and conditions to feel very muggy. Temperatures will fall into the 80s after 7pm, then 70s by 10pm. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Highs continue in the lower to middle 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the ridge will start to break down a bit by Wednesday and Thursday, allowing a cold front to pass through Alabama. Typically a weak cold front this time of the year would mean for high rain chances, but our tropical low along the east coast of Florida could really help to reduce the risk of rain there on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll be in the perfect spot to deal with the sinking air around the outer edge of the tropical system. This means, the risk of rain will be low for Wednesday and Thursday as the front passes through. One good thing out of this… The low will be strengthening, which should help push the front further south and into extreme south Alabama. Dry continental air will be felt here on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Humidity will be a bit lower and overnight temperatures will be a bit lower. Expect lows in the lower 60s Friday morning and Saturday morning! Any outdoor events for Independence Day and the weekend following should be dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday and Saturday.

As for our tropical low… It’s a well developed low pressure, but as of 4pm, it’s still just that. The National Hurricane Center suggests any flare of convection around the center could bump this up to a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Authur. This will likely happen tonight, as the environment around the system becomes conducive for development. The low will hang out near the east coast of Florida for the next 48 hours, then track northeast, impacting the Carolinas by Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. It is unlikely this feature becomes a hurricane, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

Tropical Update… Monday Update – 3:45pm

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Here’s a note from the National Hurricane Center in regards to the tropical low just east of Florida:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low pressure east of Florida.

1. Updated:  An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east of Melbourne, Florida.  While the low is well defined, the associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories. Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development, and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained winds with the low are about 30-35 mph.  The low is moving southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.  A turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

 

Hot Days… Isolated PM Storms… Sunday Eve Forecast Update – 9:30pm

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Good Sunday evening! It has turned out to be a hot and mainly dry day across west and central Alabama, due to the presence of an upper air ridge. A few tiny storms dotted the landscape this afternoon, but most of the area didn’t get a drop. With an upper air ridge in full force over the next couple of days, expect temperatures to remain hot and skies remain mostly sunny. There’s a small chance of a passing storm during the afternoon hours each day, but most areas will stay dry. Expect highs in the lower to middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday.

The upper air ridge will weaken enough to allow a weak cold front to pass through Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday. The front will bring a chance of a few scattered storms, but some areas will remain dry. Expect highs in the lower 90s on Wednesday and Thursday, with lows near 70 at night.

Most model data thins out the rain chances for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, which would be great for the outdoor events surrounding Independence Day and the weekend. Highs will top out near 90, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70. If the air can dry out enough, conditions will feel pleasant during the morning and evening hours, but it’s hard to get dry air into Alabama this time of the year.

As for the tropics… We’re watching an area of low pressure east of Florida at this hour. There is a high chance this will become a tropical storm in the next day or two, as it slowly drifts southwest. As an upper air trough digs in from the west, the low will cut northeast by the middle of next week. There’s a chance it could impact the coastal sections of Georgia and the Carolinas as a tropical storm. At this time, it looks unlikely that it will become a hurricane.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

Hot Days… Isolated PM Storms… Saturday Forecast Update – 9:20pm

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Good Saturday afternoon! Much of west Alabama dealt with a fast moving round of showers and storms this evening, as a weak disturbance remains nearby. As of 9:30pm, most of west and central Alabama is drying out, as the storms fizzle. An upper air ridge will really start to take over the area on Sunday, so the risk of scattered storms will decrease to 30%. A few afternoon pop-up storms are possible, but many areas will remain dry on Sunday. With a little more sunshine on Sunday, temperatures will get rather hot. Expect highs in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The ridge will get a bit stronger by Monday and Tuesday, which means our weather will be hot and mainly dry. The risk for rain is very low for Monday and Tuesday, but a stray afternoon storm or two can’t be ruled out. Highs could reach the middle 90s in some areas both afternoons. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 70s at night.

A weak upper air trough will send a cold front into northern Alabama late Wednesday and on Thursday. A few pop up storms are possible. The risk of rain is at 30% for Wednesday through Saturday, but I may have to increase the rain amounts a bit, as new forecast data comes in. If you have plans outdoors for Independence Day on Friday or that weekend, keep an eye on the latest forecast…

As for the tropics… We’re watching a developing low pressure off the southeast US coastline. This system is slowly moving south and has a good chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next couple of days. At this time, I don’t expect any Alabama impacts. The approaching upper air trough will kick the system to the northeast by the middle of next week.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

Hot Days… Isolated Storms… Friday Forecast Update – 4:30pm

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Good Friday afternoon! It has turned out to be a hot day across Alabama, with some sun at times and a lack of organized rain. As of 4:30pm, we’re watching a weak upper air impulse move into west Alabama. This is providing some lift to get storms developing across east Mississippi. As this feature tracks northeast, the risk of scattered storms will continue through the evening and overnight hours. Most of your evening plans will be rain free, but have the umbrella handy incase a storm passes over your area. Temperatures will gradually fall into the lower 70s late tonight.

An upper air ridge will nose into the area from the west over the weekend, which will drop our rain chances and increase daytime temperatures. There is still a small chance of a passing storm on Saturday, but many areas will not get rain. Expect a partly cloudy sky, with a 40% risk of rain for any one spot. The best chance of a passing storm will happen during the afternoon hours. The risk for rain drops to 20% on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s, thanks to the increase in sunshine. Expect lows to remain in the lower 70s each night.

We’re watching a small low pressure over the southeastern Coastline of the US. There is a chance this feature could develop into a weak tropical system late this weekend or early next week, as it tracks offshore. The risk of this system becoming anything strong is very low, but we’ll keep an eye on it. An upper air trough will move into that area next week, which will kick the system northeast.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Scattered Storms Likely… Then, Hot and Mainly Dry… Thursday Forecast Update – 4:45pm

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Good Thursday afternoon! Much of Alabama has picked up some rain at times today, with some really heavy rain amounts falling north of I-20. To the south of I-20, storms have been rather scattered so far. With an upper air trough axis over Alabama, scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible through Friday. We may eve have a few scattered storms during the overnight hours. While rain chances are lower at night, keep the wet weather gear handy. Temperatures will fall into the lower 70s for lows tonight.

As for Friday, expect a good  chance of occasional showers and storms across Alabama. Since storms will be scattered, rain amounts will be uneven across the area. Some spots will get a big soaking, while some areas may not get a drop of rain.

The upper air ridge starts to move back into the area over the weekend and early next week, which means rain chances will drop into the low range. A few afternoon storms are possible over the weekend, but most spots will remain dry. Highs will top out in the lower 90s over the weekend. Lower to middle 90s are expected on Monday through Wednesday of next week.

The tropics remain quiet at this time, but we will be watching the tropics close, as we move deeper into the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua