Good Monday afternoon! Our weather has turned very hot this afternoon, as a summer ridge sit right over our area. At 4pm, temperatures are in the lower 90s, but heat index values are in the 99 to 103 degree range. It is interesting to note that the eastern edge of the ridge is over the Alabama/Georgia State line. In response to the edge of the rige in the position, there are numerous strong storms right on the state line. Since the flow around the east edge of a ridge is out of the north, storms in that area are moving south. Rain chances across our part of Alabama will remain very low through Tuesday.
If you have plans outdoors this evening, expect temperatures to remain very mild and conditions to feel very muggy. Temperatures will fall into the 80s after 7pm, then 70s by 10pm. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Highs continue in the lower to middle 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the ridge will start to break down a bit by Wednesday and Thursday, allowing a cold front to pass through Alabama. Typically a weak cold front this time of the year would mean for high rain chances, but our tropical low along the east coast of Florida could really help to reduce the risk of rain there on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll be in the perfect spot to deal with the sinking air around the outer edge of the tropical system. This means, the risk of rain will be low for Wednesday and Thursday as the front passes through. One good thing out of this… The low will be strengthening, which should help push the front further south and into extreme south Alabama. Dry continental air will be felt here on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Humidity will be a bit lower and overnight temperatures will be a bit lower. Expect lows in the lower 60s Friday morning and Saturday morning! Any outdoor events for Independence Day and the weekend following should be dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday and Saturday.
As for our tropical low… It’s a well developed low pressure, but as of 4pm, it’s still just that. The National Hurricane Center suggests any flare of convection around the center could bump this up to a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Authur. This will likely happen tonight, as the environment around the system becomes conducive for development. The low will hang out near the east coast of Florida for the next 48 hours, then track northeast, impacting the Carolinas by Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. It is unlikely this feature becomes a hurricane, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist