Thursday Afternoon Forecast Update – 3:46 PM Update

A good Thursday to you! It’s hot around central Alabama this afternoon, but it’s not as hot as it will get over the next few days. As the 500mb ridge builds into the southeast, temperatures will continue to warm a little each day through the weekend. As soil moisture dries out over the next few days, more of the sun’s energy will go into heating the ground rather than evaporating the moisture. Evaporation is also a cooling process, so that’s what has kept us in the lower 90s over the past couple of days. The good news is that the ridge doesn’t look as intense over the weekend as it did a few days ago, so I’ve brought temperatures back into the upper 90s rather than triple digits.

Skies will remain mostly sunny through the 4th of July weekend, as warmer air aloft caps off the atmosphere. If you have a trip planned to the river, lake or pool, the hot weather shouldn’t be much of a bother. Be sure you drink plenty of water and stay well hydrated. Also, wear lots of sunscreen. The higher sun angle this time of the year can bake your skin in a hurry. Expect highs in the upper 90s through the mid portion of next week. Dry air that is currently in place will move out as moisture returns. This will mean a warming trend at night, with lows returning into the lower 70s.

Isolated afternoon storms are possible on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, but many of us will not see the rain. Plus, if a storm pops up in your area, it won’t last more than 15 minutes.

Have a safe holiday weekend!

Join me on WVUA-TV for the latest on your forecast at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Arlene Nearing Hurricane Status… Wednesday Update 10:30 PM

 

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH ARLENE WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB.
SEVERAL SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS CLOSE TO 50 KT WERE ALSO RECORDED ON THAT PASS AND THE SUBSEQUENT ONE AROUND 2300 UTC.  EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES REVEALED A PROMINENT BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT A LACK OF ANY DISTINGUISHING CENTRAL FEATURES.  THE LATTER MATCHES WHAT THE PLANE ALSO FOUND…A LARGE REGION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  ON THE BASIS OF THE PLANE REPORTS AND 0000 UTC TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5/3.0…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE ARE VERY WARM…THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT SEEM SUITABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  BESIDES…THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS DECREASING NOW THAT LANDFALL SEEMS IMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATES ARLENE REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IMMEDIATELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON FLIGHTS YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION…BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TO NEAR LANDFALL.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE CHANGES AND AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO EARLIER DECELERATION.

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:15 PM Update

 

A good Wednesday afternoon to you! After lots of rain yesterday, the hot summer sun has returned today. Due to lots of soil moisture, temperatures won’t get as hot as they could today. Temperatures will try to reach the middle 90s, but as the ground dries out and a ridge builds in from the west, temperatures will warm a bit each day. The good news is that a drier airmass has settled in. Dry air heats and cools very effectively, so temperatures will get a bit cooler tonight. Expect a low in the middle 60s tonight. As dewpoints stay rather low, lows will remain in the middle to upper 60s.

Skies will remain sunny through the weekend, so if you have outdoor plans through the 4th of July weekend, be sure to wear lots of sunscreen. Also, drink lots of water to stay well hydrated. As moisture levels increase, humidity will rise. Temperatures will reach the triple digits on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. With higher moisture levels, heat index values will top out between 108 and 112. This type of heat is more common in late July and August, but it’s still a dangerous type of heat. Take your heat safety precautions through the weekend and into next week. With warmer air aloft, the atmosphere will be capped off through Monday, so the chance of rain is less than 10%. Skies will also remain mostly sunny into early next week.

The ridge will try to break down a little on Tuesday and Wednesday, so isolated afternoon storms will become possible. I don’t think there’s a good chance of rain, but a few afternoon storms will cool a few of us off during the afternoon and evening. Highs will remain hot, but temperatures will drop back into the upper 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

We’re watching a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Arlene is getting better organized this afternoon and could become a weak hurricane before making landfall in the morning. This system is moving into northern Mexico and will stay well away from Alabama. Be sure to scroll down for the latest on Arlene.

Join me on WVUA-TV for the latest on your forecast at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Latest on Tropical Storm Arlene… Wednesday Update at 4 PM

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
400 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION…ALTHOUGH   RECENTLY THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY…WITH ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED TO PENETRATE THE CENTER VERY
SOON.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE OVER 24 HOURS…HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH LAND WOULD HALT STRENGTHENING SOONER THAN THAT TIME FRAME.  THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE MITIGATES THE INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE FOR ARLENE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55-65 KT BETWEEN THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL…AND THUS THE SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SOUTHERN CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY MAY HAVE PARTIALLY EXPLAINED THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION NOTED IN THE AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM EARLIER TODAY.  A LONGER-TERM…AND LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE…MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 270/6.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ARLENE SHOULD CAUSE A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER.  THE LATTER HAS OFTEN BEEN NOTED AS TROPICAL CYCLONES INTERACT WITH THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AS WELL.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK…AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Hello Arlene…. Tropical Update 9:30 PM Tuesday

Tropical Storm Arlene is moving west northwest in the Gulf of Mexico at this hour. The good news is that a strong ridge north of this system will keep the storm well away from Alabama. Landfall is expected in northern Mexico during the afternoon hours on Thursday. While it’s not very likely at this point, Arlene could become a hurricane before landfall. If this system had more time over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, this system could become a pretty strong system, but it’s only 48 hours away from land, so that is very unlikely at this point.

Be sure to join me on WVUA news at 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great evening!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Wind Damage Today… Updated Tuesday at 9:20 PM

This is what some areas saw as a result of strait line winds this afternoon. This picture was taken near Akron, AL on the Black Warrior River. This image was sent by Gary Tate.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in Gulf – 7:50 p.m. Update

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather