Tropical Storm Bertha Has Formed…. Thursday Update – 10:30pm #alwx

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As of 10pm Thursday night, Tropical Storm Bertha has formed in the Atlantic. The storm will be impacting the Lesser Antilles on Friday, with tropical storm winds and heavy rain. Puerto Rico will be impacted by the storm on Saturday, with winds nearing 50mph sustained at that point. By Sunday and Monday, Tropical Storm Bertha will likely track through the Bahamas, before making a turn to the north and northeast on Tuesday. With some dry air and wind shear, it is unlikely that Tropical Storm Bertha becomes a hurricane during it’s track… Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014

1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier this afternoon and evening indicated that the well-defined low pressure system located about 250 nmi east-southeast of Barbados had surface winds of about 40 kt north and northeast of the center. Since the departure of the aircraft, a band of deep convection has developed near and to the north and east of the low-level center, and now has enough organization to consider this system a tropical cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Bertha is moving along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located to the north based on earlier dropsonde data obtained by a NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on the cyclone maintaining a general west-northwestward motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest after that through 96 hours. By Day 5, Bertha is expected to turn northward as it moves around the western portion of the ridge. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly north of the consensus model, TVCA.

The environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable for significant strengthening during the next two days due to modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However, the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The resultant increase in instability could allow for some slight strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the consensus model ICON.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

 

Scattered Weekend Storms… Thursday Forecast Update – 3:45pm

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Good Thursday afternoon! Our local weather has become rather humid again today, as moisture levels increase. There are lots of clouds spread across Alabama this afternoon, but so far, most of the area is dry. I expect a few sprinkles or light showers in some areas this afternoon and evening, but many of you will not get rain today. A weak trough axis will be shifting into Alabama over the weekend, so rain chances will increase in response to the approaching uplift.

If you have plans outdoors this evening, expect temperatures to gradually fall into the 70s after 7pm, with upper 60s possible after midnight. Humidity will remain rather high this evening, under a mostly cloudy sky. The risk for rain remains low on Friday, but a few scattered showers and storms are possible. The risk of rain on Friday is at 30%, with an afternoon high in the upper 80s.

Rain chances will increase some on Saturday and Sunday, as improved uplift moves into the area. While I don’t expect an all day type of rain or a wash-out, I do expect some scattered showers and storms on radar. With the humid airmass in place and a lifting feature, I can’t rule out a few morning storms over the weekend as well. The best chance of scattered storms will occur during the peak heating of the afternoon hours.

Monday through Wednesday will feature a summer routine, with a few passing storms each day. The risk of rain for one spot early next week is only at 30%, so don’t count on rain ever day at your house. You may actually miss the rain each day, but understand, there is a risk of a few storms…

We’re watching a tropical low nearing the Lesser Antilles at this hour. The Hurricane Hunters have been out there investigating the storm and have found winds to support a tropical storm, however, there is no convection around the center due to wind shear and dry air. The National Hurricane Center will likely hold off on naming it into a named storm until thunderstorm convection fires up near the center. A this point, it’s a low level swirl, with gusty winds an some clouds. Most models take this system over the Bahamas early next week as a tropical storm, but it’s still in question whether this system can get organized… I don’t expect any issues with this feature in the Gulf at this time…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Scattered Storms Possible Ahead… Wednesday Forecast Update – 4:30pm

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Good Wednesday afternoon! After record breaking lows this morning, with all of the area in the 50s, temperatures have modified a bit this afternoon. As of 4:30pm, all of west and central Alabama is in the lower to middle 80s. With a full dose of sunshine and low humidity, conditions still look and feel nice. Humidity levels will gradually creep up tonight and on Thursday. While it won’t get overly humid until the weekend, the comfort will drop a bit in the next 36 hours.

An upper air trough axis will work into Alabama by late week and over the weekend, which will increase the risk of scattered showers and storms. I can’t rule out a few passing showers or storms on Thursday, but many areas will remain rain free. Scattered storms are a little more likely on Friday and Saturday, but I don’t expect an all day type of rain. The risk of rain on Friday and Saturday is at 40%. Daytime highs will remain in the middle to upper 80s through the weekend, with lows increasing to near 70 by Saturday night.

Rather hot and humid conditions will take over for much of next week, with a risk of a passing storm or two each day…

The news is a little better in terms of what’s happening with our tropical low 93L. On Monday, the system was looking impressive, with deep convection around the center and a developing circulation. Since then, dry air has surrounded the low and has been ingested into the center. As long as dry air is near the center, the low won’t have much of a chance to get well organized. The guys at the National Hurricane Center have lowered the risk of this becoming a tropical depression or storm to 50% in the next few days.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Tropical Update… 1pm Wednesday #alwx

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The news is a little better in terms of what’s happening with our tropical low 93L. On Monday, the system was looking impressive, with deep convection around the center and a developing circulation. Since then, dry air has surrounded the low and has been ingested into the center. As long as dry air is near the center, the low won’t have much of a chance to get well organized. The guys at the National Hurricane Center have lowered the risk of this becoming a tropical depression or storm to 50% in the next few days.

With a weaker system, it is more likely to track in a west or west northwest direction for the next few days. An eastern US trough will likely turn it to the north before reaching the US, but that part is still in question. The environment ahead of it isn’t all that favorable in the short term. There’s still a chance this could become tropical storm Bertha, if it can get away from dry air and wind shear. US impacts appear unlikely at this time, but we’ll keep an eye on the upper air pattern in the coming days. The low is still well east of the Lesser Antilles. If you have a trip planned to the Lesser Antilles over the next few days, keep an eye on any changes. More than likely, that area will just experience windy conditions with some rain.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Record Lows Shattered This Morning! Look at the Numbers… Wednesday Update – 9am

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Good morning! It was a cool start to our Wednesday morning, with all of west and central Alabama falling into the 50s. Most locations were in the middle to upper 50s, which is crazy for late July! Tuscaloosa dropped to 56 degrees, with the old record of 67… That means, Tuscaloosa was 11 degrees cooler than the record for the day!  Here’s a long list of lows across Alabama this morning…

Tuscaloosa: 56

Anniston: 54

Birmingham: 57

Montgomery: 59

Prattville: 59

Brent (Bibb Co): 55

Hayden (Blount Co): 54

Union Grove (Chilton Co): 56

Barfield (Clay Co): 53

Shoal Creek (Cleburne Co): 56

Heflin (Cleburne Co: 55

Cullman: 52

Fort Payne: 50

Rainbow City (Etowah Co): 55

Sardis City (Etowah Co): 53

Gainesville Lock & Dam: 57

Millport (Lamar Co): 52

Vernon (Lamar Co): 54

Demopolis: 54

**** Hartselle (Morgan Co): 46

Oakmulgee (Perry Co): 53

Helena (Shelby Co): 56

Chelsea: 57

Hoover: 57

Pell City (St. Clair Co): 55

Livingston (Sumter Co): 55

Talladega: 53

Coker (Tuscaloosa Co): 55

Jasper: 54

Parrish (Walker Co): 56

Haleyville (Winston Co): 54

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Nice Now… Humidity Returns by Late Week… Tuesday Forecast Update – 3:45pm #alwx

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Good Tuesday afternoon! It has turned out to be a fantastic weather day, with low humidity and a refreshing north breeze. Winds have gusted to 25mph in spots today! Dewpoints continue to drop, which will set the stage for record lows tonight. As winds go calm and skies remain clear, temperatures will drop quickly after sunset. Expect temperatures in the upper 70s in some areas by 7pm, then 60s by 10pm. Areas along and north of I-20 stand a good chance of reaching the upper 50s tonight, which is record breaking for most areas. If you live south of I-20, you’ll drop into the lower 60s by sunrise Wednesday morning.

The general trough slowly moves out of the area on Wednesday, but humidity will remain low. Daytime highs will reach the middle 80s on Wednesday, under a mostly sunny sky. Humidity finally starts to make a return on Thursday and Friday, with a risk of a few scattered storms. Highs will remain in the middle to upper 80s Thursday and Friday afternoon. With higher dewpoints, temperatures at night will warm back into the upper 60s.

The risk of a few passing storms will continue through the weekend and early next week, but the risk of rain in one spot isn’t very high. If you have plans outdoors this weekend, have the umbrella handy. Most events will be rain free over the weekend.

The tropics are starting to heat up a bit. We’re watching a large area of low pressure in the central Atlantic, track west. There is a good chance this becomes tropical storm Bertha sometime over the next day or two. Model data is still iffy on the path of the storm, but there is a chance it could impact the lower 48 in 8 to 10 days. There’s still a good chance the storm remains out to sea and never impacts the US. It’s too close of a call for this far out. As you know, a lot can change in that amount of time. Depending on how strong the ridge is to the north of the system, and the position of the trough will determine where this feature tracks. Also, if it rapidly strengthens or remains rather weak will determine the path. If it remains weak longer, it will likely track further west, increasing the risk of a US landfall. If it gets stronger, quicker, it would turn north into a weakness in 5 to 6 days. As I said, there are still a lot of questions that need ironing out. Lets keep an eye on it…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Thoughts on Tropical Low Invest 93L… Monday Update – 5:35pm

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Good Monday afternoon! We’re watching a tropical low becoming better orgnaized over the central Atlantic at this hour. There is a high chance this will become our next tropical storm (Bertha) over the next couple of days. The low is in a good environment with little wind shear, uplift, warm water temperatures and deep tropical moisture. The environment ahead of this feature is favorable for intensification; in-fact, many of our tropical models develop this system into a hurricane. There is evidence of some dry air near the system, so if dry air gets pulled into the center, it would slow or hamper strengthening.

Where will it go? There are several options of where this storm will go. I think there is a higher chance the low will turn out into the open water of the Atlantic over the weekend and early next week, due to a forecasted weakness in the subtropical ridge. If the storm develops stronger and faster, there is a high chance it will feel the weakness to the north and turn north. If it remains weaker for a longer period of time, then it may miss the weakness and continue further west. With a trough forecasted to remain over the eastern US, it will be hard for this system to impact the southeastern US, but not impossible. Really, anyone along the Atlantic or Gulf Coast should monitor this system incase the upper air pattern changes up a bit. While not impossible, I don’t think this will become a Gulf Storm, however, any pattern change could allow it to move into the Gulf. I just don’t see a high chance of that happening at this time.

How strong will it get? If the storm remains in the favorable environment, I would expect it to become our second hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. There is a fairly high chance it will become a hurricane later this week or over the weekend. Anyone planning a trip to the Lesser Antilles in the next 5 to 6 days need to keep a cautious eye on this one…

The bottom line… This system is just now developing and changes are likely in the days ahead. It will be a good idea to keep checking here for any updates in the next 5 to 7 days.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua