Soggy End to 2016…Friday Evening Update 5:10p.m.

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Good Friday afternoon! Today was a chilly, sunny day across the state; however, we’ve got some changes coming overnight and into tomorrow to close off 2016. Increasing clouds tonight won’t limit temperatures from dropping back into the mid to lower thirties, making for a chilly evening. Early tomorrow morning showers will start to develop in far northwest Alabama. Parts of north Alabama may see some sleet pellets for a few short minutes when rain first starts to arrive with dry pockets still located in layers of the atmosphere. Here in central Alabama though, we will only receive very cool showers. Heavy showers developing along the coast will limit inflow for central and north Alabama making for lighter showers north of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. Areas south of those cities will see much heavier rainfall. New Year’s Eve plans look to be a bit soggy with light showers continuing overnight. The Sanger bet is to keep plans indoors. Those that will be attending game the play-off game in Atlanta will be dealing with those showers all the way back home since rain will be scattered about much of the southeast by Saturday night.

Sunday marks the first day of the new year and showers will continue during the day but greater chances will be present for parts south of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. Areas north will only see spotty showers. Temperatures will be much warmer with winds pulling in warm in from the Gulf.

Monday will see the rain trend continuing, along with thunderstorms become apart of the mix. Storms will be fueled by the vary warm temperatures and dew points being brought in off the Gulf. Tuesday and Wednesday will only see isolated showers with Monday’s system moving out and mild zonal flow following behind it. It won’t be until Thursday that we see a new trough moving in from the west that will try to bring an end to rain after its exit, but it will also be bringing rain with it before we can get that dry period. The trough will arrive late Thursday bringing showers that will last into Friday as a surface low develops on the coast that will help further fuel additional showers. Models have been all over the place on what type of precipitation will follow behind the system. Most models generally show us just getting showers; however, every now and then a wild run will show us getting some freezing rain and a little snow. For now, that system is so far out that it is way too early to say anything else about icy weather. We will be keeping an eye on it, and if it starts to look like it will actually bring more than rain, we will update.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes
Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes
Twitter: MetRoakes
Instagram: Reggie Roakes

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Dry For Now… Wet Weekend Ahead… Thursday Forecast Update – 4:15pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Thursday afternoon! After a stormy night lastnight, a breezy northwest wind has dropped temperatures into the 50s this afternoon. Once the sun sets this evening, temperatures will drop into the 30s overnight, with a light north breeze. A light freeze is possible in spots, but frost is unlikely given the wind overnight. Expect lots of sunshine on Friday, with a cool day expected. Highs will only warm into the lower 50s, with a light northwest breeze.

Clouds increase Friday night, with a good soaking rain at times on Saturday. The best chance of rain will arrive during the midday to afternoon hours from west to east. There is a small chance of a few sleet pellets mixed in as the precip begins for areas along and north of I-20. Temperatures will be well above freezing, and if any sleet is mixed in, it will rapidly change to a cool rain. The only travel issues expected are the normal wet road issues. Highs will top out in the lower 50s on Saturday. Expect a soaking rain Saturday night for New Year’s Eve plans, with temperatures in the lower 50s.

Temperatures will warm into the 60s on Sunday and low 70s on Monday. Showers and a few storms are expected on Sunday, with a good chance of showers and storms on Monday. We’re watching Monday carefully incase parameters support severe weather. At this point, it looks like mainly rain and thunder with little to no severe weather. Stay alert incase that changes… Rain amounts over the weekend will vary from around 1 to 2 inches along and north of I-20, with 2 to 4 inches likely for areas south of HWY 80. We’ll all get a good rain, but coastal storms Saturday night and Sunday may limit the heavier rain to the north of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. If coastal storms form on Saturday night and Sunday, rain will be light to occasional moderate along and north of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, rather than heavy.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

1:30am Thursday Radar Update #alwx @wvua23

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Good early Thursday! As of 1:30am, the news continues good in terms of the lack of severe weather. Showers and storms continue to sink southeast across central and west Alabama. There are no current watches or warnings anywhere across Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. One main limiting factor for tornadoes continues to be the lack of uplift and the southwest surface wind. For tornado formation, surface winds need to be south to southeast to get the needed backing to increase low level wind shear, and that’s just not going to happen tonight.

Understand, the risk of severe weather has always appeared very marginal with this system, and the risk continues to look very low for the next few hours, as a cold front moves across the state. Storms may produce a quick burst of heavy rain and gusty winds. The risk of a tornado is really low for the rest of the night, but we’ll keep an eye on radar trends.

At 1:30am, the cold front was lined up from near Cullman to Vernon to Starkville. Behind the front, the air is turning cooler and stable. Ahead of the front, warm and unstable air remains in place. Showers and storms will feed off the fuel until the cold front brings an end to the action between now and sunrise Thursday morning from northwest to southeast. The cold front should reach I-59 (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden) around 3am. The cold front will reach Montgomery by 5am. Cold air will win the battle, and conditions will feel colder by sunrise.

Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Radar Update: 12:30 a.m.~~ #alwx @wvua23

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At 12:30am, numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are impacting areas roughly along and to the northwest of I-59. Rain is falling at times in Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden and points to the northwest. One good sign is there have been no severe weather warnings over the past few hours with the approaching storms from the west. The risk of severe weather tonight is low, but it’s not out of the question to get a warning or two overnight.

Given the uplift, wind shear and increasing surface based instability, storms that develop stand the chance of becoming strong. There could be an isolated wind damage issue or a spin-up tornado tonight, as the main line works through the state. The risk is on the low end of the scale, but I still want you to be weather alert tonight incase a severe storm moves into your area. Have a source to wake you up if a warning is issued for your area.

The risk of strong and isolated severe storms will develop between 1am and 3am near and northwest of I-59, then impact areas to the southeast of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden between 2am and 5am.

Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

9:40pm Wednesday Radar Update #alwx @wvua23

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At 9:40pm Wednesday, we are watching showers and storms develop across northwest Alabama. The storms over Alabama are not severe and remain rather weak. We are watching with interest new storms forming in northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas. Those are the storms associated with the main line and cold front. Currently, there are no watches or warnings associated with the storms to our west…

Given the uplift, wind shear and increasing surface based instability, storms that develop stand the chance of becoming strong. There could be an isolated wind damage issue or a spin-up tornado tonight, as the main line works through the state. The risk is on the low end of the scale, but I still want you to be weather alert tonight incase a severe storm moves into your area. Have a source to wake you up if a warning is issued for your area.

The risk of strong and isolated severe storms will reach northwest Alabama sometime closer to midnight, then impact the I-59 area (near Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden) between midnight and 2am. Areas to the southeast of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden will deal with the risk of strong to isolated severe storms between 1am and 4am.

Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Strong Storms Tonight… Cooler Thursday/Friday… Wednesday Update – 6:20pm #alwx @wvau23

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Good Wednesday evening! We’re watching radar trends for tonight, as we’ll be dealing with a round of showers and storms during the overnight hours. Some storms could become strong, with a low end risk of an isolated severe storm or two. The main risk will be from damaging wind, hail and an isolated spin-up tornado between 10pm and 4am. The risk will begin in northwest Alabama around 10pm and end in east and central Alabama by 4am.

Cooler air will take over on Thursday and Friday, with highs dropping back into the 50s. A breezy north wind on Thursday will make for a chilly feel to the air. Lows will approach 32 Thursday night.

Clouds increase on Saturday, with a good chance of a soaking rain on Saturday. There is a chance of a little sleet mixed in as the rain initially begins Saturday, but travel issues are not expected, as temperatures will be well above freezing. Highs will warm into the mid 50s on Saturday, with rain at times. New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day will include rain at times. If you have plans outdoors, take the umbrella! A few storms may become embedded in the rain on Sunday and Monday, with highs warming into the 60s.

Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Few Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight… Wednesday Update – 3:15pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Wednesday afternoon! We continue to watch for the risk of a few strong to severe storms overnight tonight, as a strong cold front moves into Alabama during the late night hours. All of west and central Alabama is classified under a risk of strong to isolated severe storms tonight, so it will be a good idea to have a source of severe weather information to wake you up incase a warning is issued for your area.

This is an interesting setup and didn’t appear in the models to be favorable for strong to severe storms until lastnight. It’s not uncommon for these winter systems to throw a surprise or two, and fortunately, we caught this one early enough to give a heads up before tonight.

As the upper air trough digs southeast, upward motion in the atmosphere will develop over Alabama, as well as a fair low level jet. The low level jet will transport higher dewpoints into the state, with dewpoints ranging from 62 to 66 overnight. Higher dewpoints, warm surface temperatures and cooling air at around 18,000 feet will increase instability during the overnight hours. Typically, the air becomes more stable during the overnight, but this setup is unique in respect to the increasing environment capable of producing strong to a few isolated severe storms during the “usual” cool part of the night. CAPE will be ranging from 500 to 1,000 j/kg tonight, which is sufficient for a severe risk during the winter. Wind shear will increase overnight as well, leading to the concern for an isolated tornado or two. One positive note, surface winds will be generally out of the southwest during this event. A southwest surface wind tends to limit tornado formation, rather than a more favorable south to southeast surface wind which would tend to enhance a tornado threat. That being said, it still possible to get a spin-up tornado in this environment tonight…

What to expect: Other than a few isolated showers, our local weather will remain quiet through atleast 9pm. By 10pm, a line of storms should have developed between Tupelo and Memphis and will slide southeast into northwest Alabama between 10pm and midnight. A few storms could develop ahead of the main line between 10pm and midnight in areas to the northwest of I-59 (to the northwest of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden). Any storms within the line and ahead of the line will be capable of producing isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado or two.

The risk of strong to severe storms will increase along the I-59 corridor (near Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden) between 11pm and 3am. Storms in this area listed will also be capable of producing isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado or two.

After 3am, the line of strong to isolated severe storms and isolated strong to severe storms ahead of the main line will shift well south of I-59, impacting areas near Demopolis, Clanton, and Rockford generally between 2am and 5am tonight. Storms will be capable of producing an isolated tornado and an isolated damaging wind gust in this zone listed as well.

Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott