Rain Tomorrow Night/Monday, then Warmer Mid-Week – Saturday Evening Forecast Update 8:40 PM

 

 

We enjoyed another nice weather day across Alabama today with lots of sunshine and highs reaching the low 60s for most spots this afternoon. Overnight tonight, we’ll still have some chilly conditions but certainly not as cold as previous nights including Thanksgiving night.

We still have an upper-level disturbance moving through the zonal upper flow tomorrow and Monday. While moisture will be fairly limited at the surface, fairly significant uplift associated with this feature will likely spell scattered showers tomorrow night lasting through the overnight hours into Monday around lunchtime. These showers should be light in nature, and no total washout is expected. By Monday afternoon, the sky should begin to partially clear.

Tuesday should be a pretty nice day across Alabama as a complex storm system begins organizing to our west. Southeasterly flow at the surface will prevail and this will help to begin a warming trend through the middle of the week. By Wednesday, temperatures should be near the 70 degree mark as a warm southerly flow continues. A few showers are possible Wednesday as moisture continues to stream in from the south.

By Thursday and Friday, a substantial longwave trough will be evolving over the middle of the country. The associated cold front will be slowly approaching from the northwest. Rain and perhaps some thunderstorms will become likely Thursday night into Friday as this front slowly moves closer towards our area. The upper flow will likely be parallel to the front and what this means is that this front will be very slow to clear our area. The GFS model wants to hang up the front while the European model is a little faster with the front’s progression.

Because the NAO forecast is expected to be neutral to slightly positive over the next week, I’m inclined to believe the European model at this time as that type of pattern would favor a more progressive frontal movement. Still, be aware of rain and thunderstorms primarily on Friday. Right now, there appears to be some instability as well as at least decent wind fields, so some stronger storms are possible. However, I want to emphasize that it is still much, much too early to speculate as to any potential severity of these storms; I just wanted to mention the possibility that there could be some stronger storms. We’ll be watching this system closely over the next several days.

Following the front’s passage sometime Friday into Saturday, much colder will filter in behind the system. But, this looks to be relatively short lived but again we’ll be watching this closely as well!

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
iwilliams@wvuatv.com
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

Not as Cold Tonight; Unsettled Next Week? – Friday Evening Forecast Update 8:30 PM

We had a fantastic weather day on this Friday with lots of sunshine and temperatures making it up to exactly 60 degrees in Tuscaloosa. I’m sure the plethora of Black Friday shoppers enjoyed today’s weather! Overnight tonight, the mercury won’t drop quite as low as previous nights, but a temperature range of 27 to 31 can be expected.

Heading towards your Saturday, we should have another very nice weather day across the state, including Auburn as well for the epic Iron Bowl matchup. As high pressure shifts off to our east, a modest southeasterly flow will help temperatures reach the low 60s once more with lots of sunshine. Some high level moisture may stream in through the day, but this will not lead to any rain chances.

By Sunday, a fairly strong upper air wave of energy will be moving towards the area. The associated downstream uplift will likely increase our cloud cover through the day, and as a result the temperature may hold in the upper 50s for the afternoon. Moisture will remain limited, but this system will likely squeeze out a few showers overnight Sunday into Monday, but a total washout is not expected. By Monday evening, the sky should be clearing and we’ll be left with a nice day for your Tuesday.

Some changeable weather is expected for the latter half of next week. Models continue to suggest that a front will approach us from the northwest by Thursday, and this front may be very slow to move through. As a result, it might be a setup that includes several days/waves of rain chances that begin Thursday and last throughout the entire weekend. We’ll have to watch this setup closely over the next couple of days, stay tuned! 

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
iwilliams@wvuatv.com
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

Another Cold Night, but Gradually Turning Warmer – Thursday Evening Forecast Update 8:25 PM

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! I hope each of you got a chance to relax, enjoy good company, and great food as well!

The weather wasn’t much of a problem today, unless you don’t like cold weather! Temperatures will be slowly increasing into the weekend after another cold night tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s area wide. You Black Friday shoppers will definitely need to take a heavy jacket with you as you head out the door, especially if you’re hitting the stores before sunrise!

Your Friday will feature lots of sunshine and temperatures rising into the middle 50s for most spots; it should feel pretty comfortable outside! As the high pressure system that brought us all of that cold weather begins sliding east tomorrow, temperatures will nudge up a few more degrees by the weekend towards 60 degrees! Our upper flow becomes zonal by the weekend, so no precipitation chances are expected at this time.

However, by the first part of next week, models continue to advertise an upper level disturbance moving through the area Monday and Monday night. The GFS, Canadian, and Euro models all show a decrease in rain chances with this system thanks to limited low level moisture. Still, isolated to scattered showers are possible through the day Monday, but a total washout is not expected at this time.

Models also continue to suggest a stronger system will move towards us by the end of next week. This should bring increasing rain chances by Thursday potentially lingering into your Friday, but we’ve got several days to watch this system, so stay tuned!

Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving, and have a great Friday!

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
iwilliams@wvuatv.com
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

A Very Cold Night Ahead…Warmer By Weekend – Wednesday Evening Forecast Update 9:20 PM

While the sun was out in full force today, temperatures did not respond accordingly. Most spots were at least 20 degrees colder than average today, with several locations breaking record low maximum temperatures (Tuscaloosa and Anniston). High pressure will remain in control over the Southeast for the next couple of days, allowing us to have some tranquil weather.

Your Thanksgiving Thursday should be fantastic weather-wise after a cold star to the day. Temperatures will rebound to around 50 degrees with abundant sunshine. That aforementioned high will slowly shift toward the east, allowing a more southeasterly flow to result at the surface. This should help our temperatures increase toward the mid and upper 50s by Saturday while the sunshine stays in full force.

Some weather changes begin happening toward the end of the weekend as a quickly-moving upper air disturbance traverses the Southeast. This will help create enough upward motion for some showers by the time we get to Monday. I’m not expecting a total washout, but some periods of rain are likely through the day Monday. By Monday night, that system will be shifting to our east, so we should the return of sunshine by Tuesday. Also, temperatures won’t be plummeting behind this system, because we have another system for Wednesday and Thursday.

The forecast models are hinting at this system being much more organized than the one on Monday. Accordingly, we should see rain chances increasing initially Wednesday afternoon, with higher rain chances coming in for your Thursday.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
iwilliams@wvuatv.com
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

Light Rain/Snow Moving In… Tuesday Update – 9:40pm

Good Tuesday evening! We’re getting lots of reports of rain changing to snow or mixing with snow across east and central Mississippi. Expect rain to increase in coverage across west Alabama between now and 11pm. Rain will change over to snow beginning on the Alabama/Mississippi State line between 10pm and 11pm, then the transition will take place from west to east across Alabama tonight. Areas near Tuscaloosa and Birmingham will notice a transition to light snow sometime around midnight… At this point, the risk of snow accumulations is low, but a burst of heavier snow may produce a quick dusting somewhere across Alabama tonight. Even if you get a quick dusting of snow at your house tonight, it will quickly melt as the precip comes to an end later tonight. There is a low chance of some icy bridges north of I-20 tonight, so drive careful as the temperature drops below freezing.

Most of you will sleep right through this event, as skies will become sunny around sunrise Wednesday morning.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Little Light Snow Tonight… Dry and Chilly Week… Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4pm

I had an awesome time speaking to the 1st graders at Oak Mountain Elementary School in Birmingham this morning. I’ll show the kids on WVUA news at 5, 6 and 10pm.

Our weather has turned into a mess over the past 24 ro 36 hours, with rain and cold temperatures. At this hour, there isn’t much rain on radar across Alabama, but mist continues in many areas this afternoon. Mist and drizzle is very hard to pick up on radar, but it’s out there. Also, a breezy northwest wind has developed on the back side of the departing low pressure. As cold air continues to funnel into Alabama and an upper level low moves across the state tonight, things will get a little interesting… First, temperatures will continue to drop into the lower 40s by sunset and upper 30s shortly after sunset. We can expect drizzle to continue at times through 10pm tonight.

As an upper level low tracks into the state, there’s a chance light showers will transition into light snow or snow flurries between 11pm and 3am for west Alabama and midnight and 5am in east Alabama. Most of you will sleep through this event and wake up with sunny skies on Wednesday. I don’t expect any snow accumulations across west Alabama, but areas east of I-65 may get a quick dusting of light snow. Since the ground is warm and very wet, flakes that hit the surface will melt. As temperature drop below freezing late tonight, some bridges north of I-20 may become a little icy. Use caution if you’re driving late tonight and early tomorrow morning! After 9am, bridges across the state will be fine…

Thanksgiving Day: Our weather will start off very cold Thursday morning, with most areas well into the lower or middle 20s. We’ll have a hard freeze, with temperatures only warming into the middle 40s for highs. Skies will remain sunny on Thursday.

Black Friday: Expect another cold start to our Friday, with lows in the upper 20s. Skies will remain sunny through the day, with a warmer middle to upper 50s expected.

Saturday and Sunday: Skies will remain sunny on Saturday, with a high close to 60. Saturday morning will start off cold, with upper 20s once again. Clouds will increase on Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s.

Our next risk of rain will occur on Monday, with a good soaking expected for the state. I don’t expect any flash flooding or severe weather issues with this next feature, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

Skies will clear out by sunrise Wednesday morning, with temperatures reaching the upper 30s for highs. Wednesday will be a cold day for sure! A breezy north wind will keep wind chill values in the 20s for much of the day.

If you’re going to the Alabama vs Auburn game in Auburn on Saturday, expect some nice football conditions. Highs will top out in the lower 60s in Auburn on Saturday, with a full day of sunshine.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Heavy Rain Ending… Light Rain At Times… Snow Flakes Tonight… Tuesday Morning Forecast Update – 11am

Good Tuesday morning! As of 11am, the heavier rain has ended across the western half of Alabama, while east Alabama is still in moderate to heavy rain. Expect the rain to lighten up a bit over east Alabama between now and 1pm. A strong area of low pressure is tracking just to our south, and winds are now switching around to the north. This means temperatures will fall this evening, with most spots in the low 40s to upper 30s after sunset. Light rain and drizzle will continue at times for the rest of the afternoon and evening, but I don’t expect anything overly heavy for the rest of the day. Most areas across west and central Alabama have picked up between 1″ and 5″ since yesterday afternoon and lastnight… Additional rain totals should be less than 1/4 of an inch.

As the air gets colder tonight and an upper level low tracks across Alabama, there’s a chance rain will change to light snow or snow flurries late tonight. I don’t expect accumulations across west Alabama, but areas east of I-65 and north of I-20 may get a quick dusting of rain. Best chance of snow flakes will happen between 11pm and 5am.

One thing we’re watching close is the risk of ice developing on bridges late tonight and very early Wednesday morning. The risk should remain isolated, but for areas that drop into the upper 20s to around 30 may have some issues before sunrise tomorrow morning. I think the best chance of a few icy bridges will happen to the north of I-20. We can expect some sunshine to make a return on Wednesday, with highs in the 30s… Thanksgiving day is looking cool and dry, with highs in the 40s, with lows in the 20s…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Cold Days Ahead! Rain… A Little Snow… Monday Forecast Update – 6pm

Good Monday afternoon! Our local weather started off cold on this Monday, with cloudy skies and temperatures in the 30s. Parts of west and central Alabama picked up a little sleet during the morning to mid afternoon hours, as the initial batch of precipitation moved into the area. As of 6pm, everything has changed over to rain. If you haven’t picked up any rain at your house yet, it’s coming your way. We’ll all get a soaking rain for much of the night tonight and much of the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well above freezing, so don’t expect any travel issues for tonight. Rain totals tonight through Tuesday will approach 2″ to 5″. There could be some minor river flood issues, but that’s mainly in the areas that receive totals near 5 inches…

The heavier axis of rain will end from west to east before lunch on Tuesday, but expect some light to moderate rain on and off for the rest of our Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will only top out in the middle to upper 40s on Tuesday, with a breezy north wind developing. Winds will gust to 35mph at times, due to the strong low pressure tracking nearby. Temperatures will start to drop quickly Tuesday night, as cold air gets pulled into Alabama on the back side of the surface low. An upper level low will track across Alabama late Tuesday night and very early Wednesday morning. As moisture gets pulled into this system, light rain will transition to a light snow across much of west and central Alabama Tuesday night. Below is a time line of what time light snow could fall at your house. At this point, the risk of accumulations is low. There could be a few slick spots on the bridges to the north of I-20…

The weather will go sunny on Wednesday, with a cold north wind. Highs will top out in the upper 30s to around 40 on Wednesday. Lows will fall into the middle 20s Thanksgiving morning! Thanksgiving day is looking chilly and dry, with highs in the middle to upper 40s. Lows will drop into the upper 20s Friday night. Black Friday is expected to be a tad warmer, with temperatures in the upper 50s for highs. We’ll remain sunny through the weekend, with temperatures nearing 60 both Saturday and Sunday. Lows will start in the upper 20s Saturday morning and upper 30s Sunday morning.

If you’re going to the Alabama vs Auburn game in Auburn on Saturday, expect some nice football conditions. Highs will top out in the lower 60s in Auburn on Saturday, with a full day of sunshine.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

A Little Sleet, Tons of Rain, A Few Snow Flakes… Monday Morning Forecast Update – 9am

Good Monday morning! As of 9am, we’re watching a batch of rain to the west of Alabama at this hour. Returns are already showing up across west Alabama, and as moisture increases by late morning and early afternoon, the precip will start to reach the ground. Expect some sleet to start off across west Alabama between now and 2pm, then it will become all rain. I don’t expect any travel issues, but don’t be shocked if you see a little sleet. Expect some sleet mixed in the rain for areas along and east of I-65 between 1pm and 5pm. After that, the event will be all rain.

We can expect lots of rain with this system, as a strong low pressure develops across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Rain totals will approach 3 to 4 inches across much of west and central Alabama, which may lead to some minor river flooding. Rain will fall almost non-stop this afternoon through Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain in the 40s all day on Tuesday, with a very breezy east wind.

As an upper level low tracks across Alabama Tuesday night, rain will likely change over to some light snow or snow flurries after 9pm Tuesday night. This will likely end before sunrise Wednesday morning, so most of you will sleep right through it. I don’t expect any accumulations, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the grass turns a little white for areas east of I-65. The best chance of snow flakes Tuesday night will happen north of HWY 80. As temperatures dip below freezing, areas north of I-20 may have a few slick spots on the roads, so use caution if driving early Wednesday morning. Skies will gradually become sunny on Wednesday…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Lots of Rain Ahead – Wintry Mix As Well? – Sunday Evening Forecast Update 9:20 PM

We enjoyed some sunshine today, but some big time changes are on the way, starting very soon! First, we’ll have another cold night tonight as temperatures drop to near the freezing mark for some spots. Some of the cooler locations will dip into the upper 20s.

An upper level system will be to our west tomorrow, but associated mid-level moisture will be quickly streaming in throughout the day Monday. Initially, our surface airmass will be very dry, but will be moistening from the “top-down.” During this process, initial precipitation may be in the form of some light sleet pellets, but no travel issues are expected. Then, the precipitation will quickly change over to an all rain event by tomorrow afternoon as a surface flow moves along the Gulf Coast.

The rain will likely become heavy at times tomorrow night as that surface low tracks through southeast Alabama. We could total rain amounts of up to 3″ in some spots before all is said and done!

As we head into Tuesday night, the surface low will be lifting off to our east and northeast. However, the parent upper level low will be moving over the top of us during this timeframe. As usual, it will be a race between the colder air and the residual moisture across the area to see if they can match up to produce any snow. For now, it looks like there is a small window late Tuesday night into predawn hours of early Wednesday morning where some snow flurries or very light snow could result.

I want to emphasize that we are not expecting any snow accumulations Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. However, be careful on the roadways Tuesday night into Wednesday morning if you have anywhere to travel.

It will be cold, downright cold, on Wednesday but we will see the return of sunshine. The winds will be gusting up to 20 mph at times, so wind chills may hold in the 20s all day! The sunny weather stays with us through the end of the week into your weekend as well, including Thanksgiving Thursday!

Check back for the latest weather information regarding this storm system over the next couple of days.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
iwilliams@wvuatv.com
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac