November 30, 2013 Leave a comment
We enjoyed another nice weather day across Alabama today with lots of sunshine and highs reaching the low 60s for most spots this afternoon. Overnight tonight, we’ll still have some chilly conditions but certainly not as cold as previous nights including Thanksgiving night.
We still have an upper-level disturbance moving through the zonal upper flow tomorrow and Monday. While moisture will be fairly limited at the surface, fairly significant uplift associated with this feature will likely spell scattered showers tomorrow night lasting through the overnight hours into Monday around lunchtime. These showers should be light in nature, and no total washout is expected. By Monday afternoon, the sky should begin to partially clear.
Tuesday should be a pretty nice day across Alabama as a complex storm system begins organizing to our west. Southeasterly flow at the surface will prevail and this will help to begin a warming trend through the middle of the week. By Wednesday, temperatures should be near the 70 degree mark as a warm southerly flow continues. A few showers are possible Wednesday as moisture continues to stream in from the south.
By Thursday and Friday, a substantial longwave trough will be evolving over the middle of the country. The associated cold front will be slowly approaching from the northwest. Rain and perhaps some thunderstorms will become likely Thursday night into Friday as this front slowly moves closer towards our area. The upper flow will likely be parallel to the front and what this means is that this front will be very slow to clear our area. The GFS model wants to hang up the front while the European model is a little faster with the front’s progression.
Because the NAO forecast is expected to be neutral to slightly positive over the next week, I’m inclined to believe the European model at this time as that type of pattern would favor a more progressive frontal movement. Still, be aware of rain and thunderstorms primarily on Friday. Right now, there appears to be some instability as well as at least decent wind fields, so some stronger storms are possible. However, I want to emphasize that it is still much, much too early to speculate as to any potential severity of these storms; I just wanted to mention the possibility that there could be some stronger storms. We’ll be watching this system closely over the next several days.
Following the front’s passage sometime Friday into Saturday, much colder will filter in behind the system. But, this looks to be relatively short lived but again we’ll be watching this closely as well!