Heat and Rain Continue; Tropics Heat Up Weather Update 615 PM.

Sevenday_640

Expect a  hot and rainy pattern to dominate the forecast over the next 7 days in Central Alabama. Temperatures will top out in the mid 90s in the afternoons with heat index values above 100 degrees area-wide, and some spots seeing heat index values of 105 next week. Scattered storms will also be a continuing theme this week, with rain chances 30-40% each day. Today, most of the rain has been across south and east Alabama as an MCV stalled out there this afternoon, providing a focus for afternoon convection.

DMA_640

The rain this week will be much appreciated, as drought conditions continue to be an issue across the state, particularly north of I-20.

20160726_al_nonedownload

Turning our attention to the tropics, Invest 97L looks a bit healthier this evening as multiple thunderstorms with overshooting tops are easily noticed on visible satellite this evening.vis0-lalo

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 40% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. There are some things that may inhibit development in the short term. First, the system is moving through the eastern Caribbean between Hispaniola and South America. During this time of year, there is often surface divergence created by heat lows on the land, and relative high pressure over the water. In addition, a small area of increased shear sits in the path of this system within the next 24 hours or so, which will also inhibit development.

two_atl_2d0

Longer term, this system will continue to move westward towards the Yucatan, and once it enters the western Caribbean Sea, conditions for tropical storm development improve dramatically, and thus the NHC has given this system a 70% chance (better than the odds of an NBA player hitting a free throw) of developing into a tropical storm. It should be noted that the storm already has winds at tropical storm level now, but lacks a closed low.

two_atl_5d0 (1)

Interestingly, model consensus on this storm is actually quite good considering its level of strength and organization. Virtually all models send this storm into the Yucatan Peninsula and away from a US landfall. 97L_tracks_latest97L_gefs_latest

We will continue to monitor Invest 97 L, but forecast confidence is high that it will not directly impact the state of Alabama.

 

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Alex Puckett

Twitter: @puckettwx

Facebook: Meteorologist Alex Puckett

Advertisements

Storms in the Afternoons Continue…Saturday Evening a Update 7:45p.m.

Sevenday_640.JPG

Good Saturday evening, or should I say soggy evening? After a dry start for most this morning, showers and storms progressively developed throughout the day. Areas further north, including Jasper received large amounts of rain, while other areas like here in Tuscaloosa only experienced quick downpours because storms were rapidly progressing through.

Tonight, showers and storms will gradually come to an end and some clouds will remain as temperatures drop into the mid 70’s. Watch for patchy fog late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Sunday wraps up the weekend with temperatures still remaining very hot as another batch of showers and storms develop in the afternoon.

Next work we starts with similar conditions Monday as we experience during the weekend with storms developing in the afternoon, but as we transition through Tuesday and Wednedsay, rain chances slowly drop, but temperatures will be back on the rise, as well as heat indexes reaching the triple digits.

Later in the work week, rain chances increase again for the afternoons, but temperatures will continue to remain hot, and the forecast will remain that way, into next weekend.


Taking a look at the tropics, the first tropical disturbance approaching the Carribbean has increased in size some, growth will continue to be limited because of its rapid movement and location in non-favorable waters. The current worry with this system is what will happen when it enters into the calmer, warmer water of the Carribbean Sea. Eyes will definitely be kept on the system over the next twenty-four hours. The second system, currently moving further into the Atlantic, has weakened some. Some growth may still result over the next twenty-four to fourth-eight hours, before it enters into less favorable waters and an area of upper level winds, which tears tropical systems apart.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.Reggie Roakes

Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes

Twitter: MetRoakes

Instagram: Reggie Roakes

Radar Update…3:10 p.m.


A large band of storms is slowly progressing through central Alabama, traveling south east. Current areas about to be hit are both Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and many other communities along I20. Storms will progress throughout the evening and slowly come to an end overnight. 

Storms are producing very heavy downpours, as many areas sush as Jasper have been dealing with localized flooding issues. No severe weather is expected though.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.Reggie Roakes

Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes

Twitter: MetRoakes

Instagram: Reggie Roakes

Tropics Update: Saturday Morning, 8a.m.


Since yesterday, the first tropical disturbance approaching the Carribbean has increased in size some, growth will continue to be limited because of its rapid movement and location in non-favorable waters. The current worry with this system is what will happen when it enters into the calmer, warmer water of the Carribbean Sea. Eyes will definitely be kept on the system over the next twenty-four hours.

The second system, currently moving further into the Atlantic, has weakened some. Some growth may still result over the next twenty-four to fourth-eight hours, before it enters into less favorable waters.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes

Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes

Twitter: MetRoakes

Instagram: Reggie Roakes

Stormy Afternoons This Weekend…Friday Evening Update 4:30p.m.

Sevenday_640.JPG

Good Friday evening! Some across central Alabama caught a shower or storm this afternoon, while others have remained dry, though with some clouds for a large portion of the day. Tonight we hang on to a few of the clouds as temperatures drop into the mid 70’s. Then, starting off the weekend, some clouds hang around into the morning to start Saturday off, before more showers and storms develop in the afternoon and temperatures warm back up into the low 90’s.

The rest of the weekend will keep this trend of low 90’s for highs and mid 70’s for lows at night while showers and storms develop in the afternoons and end early in the evenings. Storms will be scattered, so don’t expect a total washout every day, but do expect some locally heavy downpours for the ares that do get rain.

Next work week temperatures continue to rise as rain chances slowly decrease. We will see heat indices return back to values above 100°, so stay cool if you’ll be working outdoors. Areas that catch showers or storms next week will get some relief from the thanks to the rain.

two_atl_5d0.png

Currently in the tropics, two systems are being watched. The first tropical wave, highlighted in yellow and located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could be more conducive for development. The second tropical wave,  centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes

Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes

Twitter: MetRoakes

Instagram: Reggie Roakes

Scattered Storms Remain Likely… Thursday Forecast Update – 4:25pm #alwx @wvua23

7 Day Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.png

Good Thursday afternoon! We’ve had lots of storms develop today and track east across the state. While a few spots did remain dry, a good portion of central and west Alabama got atleast one passing downpour today. At 4:25pm, there are still lots of scattered storms across  the state, moving east or northeast. These storms will gradually fade after sunset, but isolated showers and storms remain possible overnight. If you didn’t get rain today, there is still a good chance of scattered showers and storms each day through the weekend and into early next week.

This upper air trough axis near Alabama and points just to the west will continue to keep us under a favorable environment for scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development. While it will not rain all day, most of you will get a few passing downpours from time to time, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will remain in the lower 90s through early next week, with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

Tropics: We are now watching 2 waves in the east Atlantic, which both have a potential to develop into a tropical storm over the next 5 to 7 days. Given the dry air and wind shear near these two features at the moment, it’s unlikely rapid development can occur, however, as they move westward, development may become possible. It’s way to early to know if they will become a named storm and if the US will be impacted or not. We’ll be watching and updating you as they move west.

 

two_atl_5d0

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Hot Temperatures with Storms in the Afternoon Continue…Wednesday Evening Update 7:45 p.m.

Good Wednesday evening! Its been a hot one toady across central Alabama, despite the scattered showers and storms. Tonight rain will come to an end early as some clouds hang around overnight. Temperatures will be once again be mild in the mid 70’s. Tomorrow temperatures once again crank up into the 90’s and a new batch of showers and storms develop in the afternoon.

The remainder of this work week, along with this weekend, will carry the same trend with scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoons with hot temperatures sticking despite the rain.

Next work week will still stay the same weather wise as two ridges continue to sit on either side of Alabama, meaning lots of uplift to help get storms developing and keep the temperatures hot!

Right now in the tropics, a tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes

Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes

Twitter: MetRoakes

Instagram: Reggie Roakes