August 31, 2016 Leave a comment
Good Wednesday evening! At 10pm, the latest update from the National Hurricane Center notes Hermine is strengthening in the central Gulf of Mexico, as the storm moves north northeast. Tropical Storm Hermine is now expected to become a hurricane before landfall along the Florida Panhandle late Thursday night.
Below is a zoomed image that shows the forecasted landfall point and intensity. Hermine should be a category 1 hurricane at landfall with winds of 75mph. A hurricane warning has been issued for areas east of Panama City into the big bend of Florida. A tropical storm warning has been issued for areas as far west as Destin and as far southeast as the north side of Tampa. Fortunately, this system will be far enough away to prevent any rain or wind issues across our portion of central Alabama. The main impact along Alabama’s Gulf Coast will be large waves and a dangerous rip current. The main risk of storm surge will be along and east of where the center comes inland, which will be in the big bend region of Florida.
Here’s the 10pm, full discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon and evening indicate that Hermine has continued to strengthen, based on maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 52 kt. A recent dropsonde in the center of Hermine measured a pressure of about 998 mb, which is a decrease of 6 mb from the previous advisory.
Recon fixes over the past 4 hours indicate that the estimated motion is north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. An approaching mid-tropospheric trough located over the southeastern United States and extending southward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually lift out Hermine to the north-northeast tonight and Thursday, and then northeastward after 24 hours. The NHC model is in very good agreement on this developing steering flow pattern. Later in the forecast period, significant uncertainty in the track forecast remains, depending on how much the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a mid-latitude cutoff low that develops over the northeastern United States. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, primarily due to the more eastward initial position determined from recent recon fixes, and lies just to the left of the consensus model
The vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF models to shift from the current west-northwesterly direction to southwesterly by 18-24 hours at about 5 to 10 kt. SSTs are expected to be near 30C. The intensity consensus IVCN again brings Hermine
to hurricane strength prior to landfall and the offical forecast follows this guidance, forcing the issuance of a hurricane warning with this advisory. The predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on the global model guidance, which show the cyclone
becoming embedded within a frontal zone over the eastern United States by 72 hours.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist