Tropical Storm Hermine Stronger…. 10PM Wednesday Update #alwx @wvua23

Tropical Track Close Up.png

Good Wednesday evening! At 10pm, the latest update from the National Hurricane Center notes Hermine is strengthening in the central Gulf of Mexico, as the storm moves north northeast. Tropical Storm Hermine is now expected to become a hurricane before landfall along the Florida Panhandle late Thursday night.

Below is a zoomed image that shows the forecasted landfall point and intensity. Hermine should be a category 1 hurricane at landfall with winds of 75mph. A hurricane warning has been issued for areas east of Panama City into the big bend of Florida. A tropical storm warning has been issued for areas as far west as Destin and as far southeast as the north side of Tampa. Fortunately, this system will be far enough away to prevent any rain or wind issues across our portion of central Alabama. The main impact along Alabama’s Gulf Coast will be large waves and a dangerous rip current. The main risk of storm surge will be along and east of where the center comes inland, which will be in the big bend region of Florida.

Tropical Close Up VIS Storm NHC Track.png

Here’s the 10pm, full discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon and evening indicate that Hermine has continued to strengthen, based on maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 52 kt. A recent dropsonde in the center of Hermine measured a pressure of about 998 mb, which is a decrease of 6 mb from the previous advisory.

Recon fixes over the past 4 hours indicate that the estimated motion is north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. An approaching mid-tropospheric trough located over the southeastern United States and extending southward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually lift out Hermine to the north-northeast tonight and Thursday, and then northeastward after 24 hours. The NHC model is in very good agreement on this developing steering flow pattern. Later in the forecast period, significant uncertainty in the track forecast remains, depending on how much the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a mid-latitude cutoff low that develops over the northeastern United States. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, primarily due to the more eastward initial position determined from recent recon fixes, and lies just to the left of the consensus model
TVCN.

The vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF models to shift from the current west-northwesterly direction to southwesterly by 18-24 hours at about 5 to 10 kt. SSTs are expected to be near 30C.  The intensity consensus IVCN again brings Hermine
to hurricane strength prior to landfall and the offical forecast follows this guidance, forcing the issuance of a hurricane warning with this advisory.  The predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on the global model guidance, which show the cyclone
becoming embedded within a frontal zone over the eastern United States by 72 hours.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Advertisements

Local Forecast Update… Tropical Update – 4:30pm Wednesday #alwx @wvua23

7 Day Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.png

Good Wednesday afternoon! It’s another hot and mostly dry day, with only a few passing clouds and an isolated shower or storm on radar. Expect the risk of a stray shower or storm to end this evening, with overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. The upper air ridge that is responsible for the hot weather is moving out quickly, which will in part help to cool temperatures a tad over the next few days.

Tropical Storm Hermine will have little effects on our local weather, however, you will notice a light northeast breeze on Thursday and a light north breeze on Friday. Both days, we’ll see some clouds passing by from time to time, but we’re on the northwest side of this storm, or the dry side. Other than a small chance of a few isolated showers, most of the rain with Hermine will remain well southeast of our local area. The circulation around Hermine will help to pull southward drier air and slightly cooler air temperatures. Highs will likely remain in the upper 80s on Friday, with lows in the upper 60s.

We will quickly warm back into the lower 90s over the Labor Day Weekend, with lots of sunshine. I don’t expect any risk of rain over the weekend.

KDGK.png

Good Wednesday afternoon! At 4pm, we’ve got updates on all tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, with Hurricane Gaston, Tropical Depression 8 and Tropical Storm Hermine. Above is a wide view of basin, along with the 4pm update on each system from the National Hurricane Center.

BHKVL.png

Above is a current, 4pm, view of Tropical Storm Hermine in the central Gulf of Mexico, moving north northeast at 7mph. Hermine has winds of 45mph, with strengthening occurring. There is a real chance this becomes a category 1 hurricane before landfall in the central Florida Panhandle.

Below is a snap shot at landfall. The National Hurricane Center track has shifted west a bit, as models continue to shift west, with a landfall point somewhere between Panama City and the big bend of Florida. Models also agree that landfall will occur after midnight Thursday night as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. In response to the shift west, the NHC has expanded the hurricane watch to include Destin and points east to just north of Tampa. This area noted is also under a tropical storm warning.

Tropical Close Up VIS Storm NHC Track.png

Flooding will be the main issue across much of Florida and southern Georgia, but impacts along Alabama’s Gulf Coast will be low. Waves will become rather large along the coast this evening and gradually increase through Thursday night. The main risk of a minor storm surge will occur near and east of Panama City. If the storm shifts westward any, so will the effects.

Below is the discussion of each tropical system in the basin from the National Hurricane Center:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West.  Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall
occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).
This general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is still possible, and the
depression could become a tropical storm tomorrow before losing
tropical characteristics on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 46.9 West.  Gaston is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A turn toward the
east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected
tonight, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near the western and
central Azores on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Gaston is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


 

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Tropical Storm Hermine Approaches Gulf Coast… Latest on Tropics… Wednesday – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

KDGK.png

Good Wednesday afternoon! At 4pm, we’ve got updates on all tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, with Hurricane Gaston, Tropical Depression 8 and Tropical Storm Hermine. Above is a wide view of basin, along with the 4pm update on each system from the National Hurricane Center.

BHKVL.png

Above is a current, 4pm, view of Tropical Storm Hermine in the central Gulf of Mexico, moving north northeast at 7mph. Hermine has winds of 45mph, with strengthening occurring. There is a real chance this becomes a category 1 hurricane before landfall in the central Florida Panhandle.

Below is a snap shot at landfall. The National Hurricane Center track has shifted west a bit, as models continue to shift west, with a landfall point somewhere between Panama City and the big bend of Florida. Models also agree that landfall will occur after midnight Thursday night as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. In response to the shift west, the NHC has expanded the hurricane watch to include Destin and points east to just north of Tampa. This area noted is also under a tropical storm warning.

Tropical Close Up VIS Storm NHC Track.png

Flooding will be the main issue across much of Florida and southern Georgia, but impacts along Alabama’s Gulf Coast will be low. Waves will become rather large along the coast this evening and gradually increase through Thursday night. The main risk of a minor storm surge will occur near and east of Panama City. If the storm shifts westward any, so will the effects.

Below is the discussion of each tropical system in the basin from the National Hurricane Center:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West.  Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall
occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).
This general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is still possible, and the
depression could become a tropical storm tomorrow before losing
tropical characteristics on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 46.9 West.  Gaston is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A turn toward the
east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected
tonight, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near the western and
central Azores on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Gaston is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


 

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Very Active Tropics Continue…Tuesday Eve Update – 10pm #alwx @wvua23

Tropical Info WIDE Multiple Storms.png

Good Tuesday evening! At 10pm, the latest word from the National Hurricane Center is we have 2 tropical depressions and a major hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane Gaston has strengthened into a category 3 hurricane, with winds at 120mph. Fortunately, this one is moving away from the US, and will not have an impact on the US, as it moves towards the Azores this weekend.

Tropical Depression 8 is near the outer banks of North Carolina, but this system is moving away from land now. It should become a tropical storm over the next day or so.

Tropical Depression 9 in the central Gulf of Mexico is slowly moving north northwest, with a turn to the northeast expected tonight. TD # 9 should become a tropical storm at any time, with the chance of this becoming a category 1 hurricane before landfall Thursday evening in the big bend of Florida. A hurricane watch has been issued for the big bend of Florida in response to that risk. Wind should not be a huge deal with this storm. Flooding is more of a risk than wind, but we’ll carefully watch trends incase additional strengthening occurs.

Below is the National Hurricane Discussion and maps of Tropical Depression # 9:

Tropical Track Close Up.pnglandfall.png

NHC Discussion on TD # 9:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A slow drift toward the north-northwest or north is expected tonight
and early Wednesday morning. A turn toward the north-northeast is
forecast to begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening. On the forecast
track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the
northwest Florida coast in the watch area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday,
and be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs on
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK – TROPICAL DEPRESSION # 8
——————————
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 74.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A
northeastward and then east-northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the depression will continue to move away from the
coast of North Carolina.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK – HURRICANE GASTON
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 50.9 West.  Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  An
east-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gaston is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is
expected tonight and early Wednesday, but weakening should begin by
late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

 

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Hot Days… Active Tropics… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4:25pm #alwx @wvua23

7 Day Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.png

Good Tuesday afternoon! It’s a hot summer day, with a good dose of sunshine. Temperatures have warmed into the middle 90s across most of the state, with a heat index near or just over 100. A few tiny showers have formed generally near HWY 80, but most of the state is and will remain dry this evening. Expect temperatures to slowly drop into the 70s after 10pm, under a mostly clear sky.

Wednesday will feature identical conditions, with highs reaching the middle 90s. A heat index will approach 100 to 103 during the mid afternoon hours. There is a small chance of a stray afternoon shower or storm.

As a developing tropical storm moves into the northeast Gulf Thursday, expect a light northeast or north breeze to develop, which will help to pull lower humidity into the state Thursday evening and on Friday. A passing shower is possible on Thursday, but most areas will remain dry. Labor Day weekend is looking perfect, with less humid air and typical summer temperatures.

hlrk.png

The tropics are very active! We’ve got 2 tropical depressions and a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, with one of those tropical depressions in the central Gulf of Mexico. This should become a tropical storm this evening or tonight. Tropical depression # 8 is located near the outer banks of North Carolina, and should become a tropical storm soon. Hurricane Gaston is getting better organized, with winds back up to 110mph. Gaston will approach the Azores this weekend in the central or east Atlantic as a tropical storm. Here’s maps and discussions from the National Hurricane Center on each of these storms.

Tropical Close Up VIS Storm NHC Track.png

Above is a zoomed in map of Tropical Depression # 8, which should be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane Thursday evening at landfall. Landfall looks to occur in the big bend of Florida. A hurricane watch is in yellow and a tropical storm watch is in peach. Warnings will likely be issued for that area in the next 24 hours. We’ll be on the northwest side of the storm, so expect a nice breeze on Thursday into Friday, but any other impacts are not expected at this time. If you have a beach trip planned to Alabama’s Gulf Coast, just expect large waves on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, with little to no rain. The main rains will be in areas east of Panama City. We’ll keep an eye on the track incase any shift west…

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 87.3 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).   A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the center will approach the coast in the watch area on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early
Wednesday.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 75.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
This general motion is expected tonight with a turn toward the
northeast forecast on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North
Carolina this evening and overnight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 51.9 West. Gaston is moving
toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

 

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Detailed Tropical Update – 8am Tuesday #alwx @wvua23

Untitled.jpg

Good Tuesday morning! At 8am, we still have a tropical depression in the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving west. There has been a huge blow up of convection around the center, which is signs of organization. We should get information later this morning from the National Hurricane Center on whether this has gained tropical storm status. If storms persist around the center today, strengthening will continue. Fortunately, there is some dry air just west of the circulation, which should prevent rapid development.

Below is a look at the 12z model plots on TD # 9. Most models bring this storm inland between Destin and Tampa as a strong tropical storm. Wind shouldn’t be a big deal with this system, however, flooding over Florida could be major. Some areas could get over 10 inches of rain this week in Florida. The only impacts across central Alabama will be a nice north or northeast breeze, helping to pull down drier air.

09L_tracks_latest.png

Below is the official track from the National Hurricane Center. The storm will make landfall, likely in the big bend of Florida as a strong tropical storm Thursday afternoon, then quickly move northeast into the Atlantic by the holiday weekend. If you have a beach trip planned, conditions should improve in Florida by Friday. Surf will be rather rough all along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast Wednesday through Friday, then relax a bit over the weekend. Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward motion is expected today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression will continue to move slowly away from western Cuba,
and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on dropsonde data from the NASA Global Hawk aircraft.

105135W5_NL_sm

We have several other tropical systems in the Atlantic basin we’re watching close. See the image below… Tropical Depression # 8, soon to become a tropical storm is nearing the outer banks of North Carolina, with gusty wind and heavy rain. This storm will turn sharp back to the northeast on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the outer banks of North Carolina.

Hurricane Gaston is slowly weakening across the central Atlantic, with winds down to 100 mph. Gaston will maintain hurricane status through Friday before weakening to a tropical storm, as it moves into the north Atlantic. Gaston will impact the Azores over the weekend with rain and tropical storm winds.

Finally, a tropical wave just coming off the African coast will likely become our next tropical storm or possibly a hurricane in the next 5 days, as it moves into warm waters this week and this upcoming weekend. We’ll watch this one carefully, as it has a chance to get close to the US in about a week to 10 days. This system could still turn out to sea, but we’ll carefully watch it.

two_atl_2d0.png

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Hot Days Continue… Very Active Tropics… Monday Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

7 Day Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.png

Good Monday afternoon! Our local weather remains hot this afternoon, with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Most areas are in the lower to middle 90s, with a heat index over 100. Make sure you stay well hydrated this afternoon and each afternoon through Wednesday, as the combination of heat and humidity will be dangerous. There is a small chance of an isolated afternoon storm or two, but the risk of any one spot getting rain is at 10% to 20%. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s through mid to late week.

The upper air ridge will quickly break down by mid to late week, allowing the heat and humidity to decrease some. I expect conditions to get a little breezy on Thursday and maybe on Friday, as tropical depression # 9, what should be a tropical storm by that point, passes to our south. The pressure gradient between that system and a surface high to our north will allow for a north breeze around 10 to 15mph. The breeze will help to transport lower dewpoints in from the north and that will feel nice! At this point, I do not expect any issues in Alabama from Tropical Depression # 9.

So, lets get into the tropics… Below are maps and tracks of the 3 developed tropical systems we’re watching.

dgah.png

First, here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Gaston. This storm will remain out to sea and not impact the US. Below is the discussion on that storm.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK:

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 55.2 West. Gaston is moving
toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  The hurricane is
expected to move generally to the northeast or east-northeast at an
increasing forward speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

——————————————————————

Tropical Depression # 8 has formed in the far west Atlantic between Bermuda and North Carolina. This should become a tropical storm soon and will brush the outer banks of North Carolina late Tuesday, then the system will hook right and move out to sea. Here’s the discussion on that storm:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK:

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 74.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  This
general motion with a slower forward speed is expected later
this evening, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be
near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early
Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


And finally, Tropical Depression # 9. This system is just west of Key West Florida, moving in a west or west northwest direction. TD 9 will become a tropical storm some time tonight or Tuesday, as it moves into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Models indicate this storm will approach the northern Gulf coast, then turn northeast ahead of an advancing trough. This will keep Alabama on the dry side of the system. The chances of this becoming a hurricane is low, but tropical storm conditions will be likely on Thursday over much of north and central Florida. Discussion below:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.8 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h)
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday night
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center will continue to move away from western
Cuba, and move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next
48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


Below is a map of satellite and radar, as well as the current conditions on Tropical Depression # 9.

gtttt.png

Below is the individual model plots on Tropical Depression 9, which mostly show a northern Florida or Florida Panhandle landfall. Most likely, landfall will occur somewhere between Destin and Tampa. We’ll be able to narrow that window down as we get closer to Thursday. A direct impact on Alabama’s Gulf Coast is unlikely at this time, however, surf will increase a good bit by Wednesday and Thursday.

ytt.png

Here’s a zoomed in look at the track at landfall on Thursday. The National Hurricane Center has this as a strong tropical storm, moving into the big bend of Florida Thursday afternoon. Wind shouldn’t be a big deal with this storm, but we’ll keep an eye on any sudden changes. Keep checking back with us for updates.

Tropical Close Up VIS Storm NHC Track.png

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott