Cool Weather Continues, With Rain Late Tonight/Tomorrow… Monday Forecast Update 4:45 pm

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Good Monday afternoon to you and a Happy New Year’s Eve! We’ve got a mess in the forecast for late tonight and New Year’s Day, so you may need the umbrella at any outdoor events; especially tomorrow. Tonight’s weather is in fair shape. While a shower or two is possible between now and midnight, the best chance of rain will remain west of Alabama. As the upper air trough swings east, and a cold front enters west Alabama on Tuesday, rain will become widespread. In-fact, most spots will pick up an inch or two of rain between late tonight and Tuesday evening.

Temperatures will remain pretty cool this evening, with temperatures falling into the upper 40s by 10 pm. Since clouds will remain thick and low level moisture will be on an increase, don’t expect temperatures to get much cooler than that. Some spots north of I-20 will reach the lower to middle 40s, while areas south of I-20 stay in the upper 40s for lows. Rain will gradually increase after midnight, with locally heavy rain spreading in around and just after sunrise Tuesday morning. Rain will continue to blanket much of the area through the day on Tuesday. Look for highs to reach the middle 50s.

Temperatures will drop a tad on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, as a general cold pattern trough settles over the eastern half of the US. Temperatures will have a hard time reaching 50 these days, with lows in the 20s by Thursday and Friday night. A fast moving disturbance across the northern Gulf could spread a few sprinkles or sleet pellets in there Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but that’s not expected to amount to much at all. Temperatures will remain well above freezing.

Skies will become sunny on Friday, but another disturbance will bring some clouds on Saturday. The air looks too dry at this point to produce any precip over our area over the weekend.

Have a happy and safe New Year’s Eve/Day!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8 p.m.

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The majority of the forecast has remained mostly unchanged over the next 7 days, with the exception of the late Wednesday into Thursday system. Things still look to be rather cloudy and cool as the area will remain on the east side of a broad upper trough for much of the work week. Currently, rain chances will be the highest Monday night into Tuesday.

Tranquil weather will persist thru tonight, thanks to surface ridging that continues to build eastward into the Deep South. Temps have managed to climb into the mid 40s far north to low 50s south, still rather chilly but quite a bit warmer than yesterday. Surface winds will shift to the east/southeast tonight as the ridge shifts east into Georgia and the Carolinas. Moisture will begin to increase slowly ahead of the next system, so look for low temps back in the upper 20s and low 30s with a cirrus shield spreading from west to east.

The upper level ridge will weaken on Monday as a large trough begins to settle in across the central US. This trough will be reinforced by several shortwaves and will remain nearly stationary thru mid week. The first of several shortwaves that will round the base of the upper trough will bring widespread rain to Central Alabama Monday night and Tuesday. This impulse will pick up a surface low over far east Texas and pull it east-northeast across the state on Tuesday. The low will be too far south for any instabilities, but there doesn`t appear to be any cold air for wintry precip, so still expect all rain. We could see some decent rainfall totals with this particular system, perhaps upwards of 1.5 inches. Models show precipitable water values increasing to near 1.5 inches on Tuesday, which is above normal for this time of year. Models have been fairly consistent in pushing the frontal boundary associated with this system into the southern portions the state. The latest guidance takes the front completely thru our area by Tuesday evening, with practically no rain for us on Wednesday. We may still have a shot at seeing some precip on Thursday in the southeast. Low stratus and rain will keep temps rather mild Monday night, with lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low 50s north to mid 60s south. Temps will be a bit cooler on Wednesday due to continued cloud cover.

This time yesterday models were bringing us another good round of rain Wednesday night into Thursday, but things have since changed. The surface low that was previously projected to develop in the north central Gulf and then track across northern Florida is now depicted farther south. This in turn would keep much of our forecast area cloudy but dry.

The southern end of the main upper trough breaks off into a closed low over New Mexico/Texas Friday, with the northern portion pushing eastward off the Atlantic coast. Therefore dry conditions look to prevail in the extended with temps warming back to near normal.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 7 p.m.

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An active pattern will continue with multiple upper level impulses traversing across the area bringing us at least a couple rounds of rain showers beginning early in the week. Therefore, cloudy/wet and cool will generally be the norm over the next 7 days here in Central Alabama.

Starting with today, residual low level moisture combined with lift provided by an upper level shortwave pushing east thru the Ohio Valley has helped produce some light drizzle/flurries across the northern half of Central Alabama. Sounding profiles show a very shallow moist layer below 900mb, with extremely dry air in the mid an upper levels. We could still see a few reports of light drizzle and/or flurries across the north thru the remainder of the evening before the shortwave exits the region. An expansive stratus deck has held tough across the state for much of the day, unlike what model guidance had suggested, as usual. Cloud cover should slowly decrease from southwest to northeast late this evening and overnight. Low temps tonight will depend on how fast skies can clear and wind speeds. Still expect wind speeds to remain near or above 5 mph thru the night. So even with clear skies, winds should keep true radiational cooling from taking place. Regardless, temps will still fall into the low/mid 20s. Winds should also help prevent fog formation.

Surface high pressure will build in from the west on Sunday bringing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions to the area. This could perhaps be our only fair weather day for a while, so if you have any outdoor chores Sunday would be the day to get those done. Afternoon highs will still be several degrees below normal, with low 40s north to low 50s south.

A broad upper trough will approach the Rockies on Monday and remain nearly stationary thru Wednesday. Several impulses rotating around the eastern side of the trough will bring rain chances to the Southeast on multiple days during the work week. The first round will come late Monday into Tuesday, with another late Wednesday into Thursday. Cirrus clouds should begin to stream into the are Sunday night in advance of the first impulse. Rain chances will increase from northwest to southeast Monday night and Tuesday as a surface low treks northeast across the state and drags a cold front into the area. This front is likely to stall somewhere across the area on Wednesday as the upper flow becomes zonal, with rain chances continuing south of the boundary. The models are now developing yet another low in the central Gulf late Wednesday and then pulling it northeast into northern Florida on Thursday. Overrunning precipitation should spread northward across the area during this time. The good news, depending on how you look at it, is that temps will remain too warm for wintry precipitation and there will be no instabilities to work with for severe weather. Temps for much of the week will be at or below normal.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Friday Evening Forecast Discussion – 5:15 p.m.

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Right now, showers continue to move across the state from west to east. Over the next couple of hours the rain should begin to taper off in the west. Temperatures remain on the cold side across the north. As the surface low tracks to our south and east this evening, rain will end northwest to south. Could see some wrap around moisture with the upper low tomorrow, but once again things should be all liquid. Even if a few flakes did mix in across the north no accumulations would occur.

Dry again by Saturday night area wide and will stay that way through Monday morning as high pressure slides through the area. The next trough and shortwave will begin to affect the after by Monday afternoon, with rain likely for the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013. Good news at this time, it appears to be predominately a rain event with only isolated chance of thunderstorms. In fact we continue to keep the thunderstorm wording out of the forecast for this update. We will need to monitor for increasing instability that could result in more thunderstorms, especially on the leading edge of the front.

This system should move out by Tuesday night and then an inverted trough will set up by Wednesday/Thursday and increase our rain chances across the south. So the driest locations in 2012 will start out the wettest for 2013 if everything holds together as forecast. At this time the atmosphere remains just warm enough to keep all precipitation as rain throughout the period.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Thursday Evening Forecast Discussion – 4:15 p.m.

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Shortwave ridging will quickly move eastward and away from the area tonight. Another shortwave trough will approach the area tomorrow and a weak surface reflection should develop near the Gulf Coast around Mobile by tomorrow night. The upward motion associated with the shortwave trough and a little bit of moisture return around the surface low will allow for rain showers to move over Central Alabama from the west Friday afternoon into Friday night. Best chance for rain will be overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Maybe a slight chance for a thunderstorm for our southern counties as this happens, but both moisture return and instability appear rather lacking. Moisture should depart before it gets too cold Saturday, so not worried about any winter precipitation. High pressure settles into the southeast for the weekend, and it looks like conditions will be dry from late Saturday morning through Monday morning.

Unfortunately, it was not bad enough that we had rain and severe weather for Christmas. The 12z GFS and ECMWF are now in good enough agreement about the upper air pattern in the extended that we will have a pretty high rain chance for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day for Central Alabama. Rain chances may stick around through Wednesday too. Thankfully, only a slight chance of thunderstorms on New Year’s Day as instability is marginal and not expecting any severe weather or winter weather with the system next week.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Cold Days, With Rain At Times, Then Some Sun… Wednesday Forecast Update – 6pm

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Good Wednesday evening! It’s been a cold and windy day today, which was a far cry from what type of weather we had yesterday. We even noticed a few snow flakes flying in the area for areas along and north of I-20 this morning. The snow flakes are long gone at this hour, but clouds are hanging in tough this evening. Skies will gradually become mostly clear around daybreak tomorrow morning. Look for a hard freeze tonight, with lows in the middle to upper 20s. I expect a mostly sunny sky on Thursday, with temperatures remaining very cool.

The upper air trough is bringing a big chill across much of the US on this day after Christmas. We’ll stay pretty chilly over the next several days, with only a slight warming trend on Friday, with a high in the middle to upper 50s. While our weather will become sunny to mostly sunny on Thursday, another storm system is expected to bring changes on Friday. The fast moving upper air trough will help to develop a weak area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The surface low will spread moisture into central and west Alabama, bringing a good chance of light to moderate rain. There will be no severe weather issues on Friday or Friday night. Look for a chilly rain, with temperatures dipping into the middle 40s Friday night. Rain will begin after lunch on Friday and continue through early Saturday morning.

Much of the weekend is looking dry, with a little sunshine moving in Saturday afternoon. Highs will remain in the upper 40s to around 50 on Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will fall well below freezing Saturday night, with a low in the upper 20s.

New Year’s Eve is looking dry and partly cloudy on Monday at this point. A storm system is expected to reach us on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will bring another good chance of rain sometime on Tuesday or Tuesday night. New Year’s Day is looking pretty wet at this point, with highs in the 50s.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tornado Damage Near Demopolis on Christmas Day! Wednesday Update – 4:45pm

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Good Wednesday afternoon! This is why we don’t want you in a Mobile Home during a tornado. The rubble in the middle of the picture is what’s left of a Mobile Home after an EF-1 tornado with 100mph winds struck. If anyone was in there during the tornado, it’s unlikely they would have survived. An EF-1 tornado is fairly weak. This is a classic example of how it only takes a small tornado to destroy a Mobile Home and take lives.

This picture was taken in Gallion, about 2 to 3 miles southeast of Demopolis. The National Weather Service survey team has been investigating the damage in west Alabama and in this area. They determined this to be an EF-1 tornado, with winds of 100 mph. The path length was 6 miles and width was 500 yards or just over 1/4th a mile wide.

There was another EF-1 tornado path discovered near Dixons Mill, in south Marengo County. Out of both tornadoes, there were no injuries.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com