Monday Afternoon Forecast Update – 5 PM

A good Monday afternoon to you! The weather starting off the weekend was very nice, as we dealt with a tease of spring. As an upper air disturbance moved across our area yesterday, the sunny and warm weather turned into cool, cloudy and rainy conditions. The upper air disturbance has now moved out, but clouds are still with us. There are some big changes coming over the next 48 hours, as a monstrous storm system gets organized west of Alabama.

Blizzard warnings stretch from Oklahoma City to Chicago, where 20 inches of snow are possible in spots. Winds will gust over 50 MPH, which will send visibility to zero at times. On the flip side of the storm is the threat of severe weather over the deep south, as moisture and heat surge northward from the Gulf of Mexico. As the surface low begins its rapid development in the morning, winds will begin to get gusty here in Alabama, where a wind advisory is in place. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph due to the tight pressure gradient. Winds will continue to gust to 40 until the late afternoon hours. Once the cold front moves through, the wind will switch around to the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Showers will become possible tonight, but any rain out there should be light. Showers will increase tomorrow morning. As instability increases and the better dynamics move into the area tomorrow afternoon, the chance of a few severe storms become possible. The main threat will be damaging strait line winds and isolated tornadoes. This system will need to be watched close because any increase in instability could mean for much more serious event. Right now, the threat is on the low end. Stay with WVUA as we fine-tune the forecast.

Cold air arrives on Ground Hog Day, as temperatures struggle to reach the middle 40s. The howling north wind will make it feel even colder. With a southwest flow aloft, I don’t see skies really clearing out all that much on Wednesday and Thursday. An upper air disturbance will spin up a gulf low on Friday, which will bring more rain to parts of Alabama. It will be a cold rain, with highs in the 40s. Temperatures gradually warm on Sunday and Monday, with highs back in the upper 50s. Be sure to join me tonight at 5, 6, and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 7:34 p.m.

The chance of rain continues into the overnight hours. Rain possibilities will continue on Monday and skies remain overcast throughout the day. Tuesday we have a good chance of some severe thunderstorms with a small possibility for a tornado. This will mainly be an afternoon into evening event. We will be here for you should any warnings be issued. Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott will update you on the exact time tomorrow at 4, 5, 6 and 10. The end of the week is something that we are going to have to watch as the week goes on. We are still watching the models, some of which are predicting frozen precipitation. The temperatures will be in place and there is a chance for some precipitation, but with all wintry forecasting in Alabama, it is all about timing. We’ll continue to watch the models as Friday approaches and things will slowly become clear in the coming days.

For a complete look at your Home Team forecast tune in tonight to WVUA News at 10.

Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather

Saturday Night Forecast Discussion – 9:10 p.m.

Good Saturday evening to you! Clouds will increase throughout the day Sunday with the possibility of showers during the evening hours. Monday we’ll see mostly cloudy skies but little chance for precipitation. On Tuesday, a low pressure system approaches Alabama and will bring a good bit of rain to the area. The low will bring our first chance for thunderstorms of the year here in West Alabama. The best chance for the rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday is Groundhog’s Day, but here we shouldn’t see much of the sun as rain continues until late morning. On Thursday and Friday the sun returns from behind the clouds and brings with it cooler temperatures. We can expect freezing or below freezing temperatures in the over night hours late in the weekend and over the weekend. As of right now we are looking at another dry beginning to the weekend with temperatures reaching into the mid-50s.

I’ll have your latest Home Team forecast tonight on WVUA News at 10.

Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather

Friday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:25 PM

A good Friday to you! I want to say a big thanks to Mrs. Abernathy for inviting me to speak to the First Presbyterian Preschool in Tuscaloosa. I spoke to all of the 4 year old classes at the church. There will be video on the news at 5, 6 and 10 of the visit after weather, plus, I’ll post some video to our website on the weather visit section.

You can’t beat today’s weather, as many of us dealt with bluebird skies and warmer temperatures. Highs managed to make it into the 61 – 64 degree range across central and west Alabama. This is actually a couple degrees warmer than forecasted. Since temperatures have warmed a little more than expected over the past couple of days, I’ve bumped up the forecast temperatures for our Saturday. Expect a high of 70 degrees on Saturday with a full day of sunshine. A few high, thin cirrus clouds should move in late in the day, but that won’t do much to block out the sunlight. If anything, the cirrus clouds will make for a gorgeous sunset. Places north of Fayette will stay in the middle 60s tomorrow afternoon. Conditions will be changing over the next few days, as a vigours upper level low sets up out west. This will put us in a prime spot for increasing clouds and moisture. A couple of upper level disturbances will move into the southeast and will enhance our rain chances.

The first disturbance moves in on Sunday, with an increase in showers late in the day. Skies will be mostly cloudy all day on Sunday, but the rain should shift in here after lunch. The shortwave will be weakening as it moves into Alabama, so the best chance of rain will be in our western counties. Even as that disturbance moves out, clouds will hang tough. This will keep our temperatures a little cooler on Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 60s. Warm air advection will set in on Monday, so clouds should fill the sky much of the day. A strong south wind develops during the day, as our second disturbance approaches. The next shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted, which will spark the rapid development of a mid latitude cyclone. Models have trended north with this, and is bringing in more moisture and warmer temperatures. With lots of lift in the atmosphere and strong wind shear, there could be some severe weather issues late Tuesday and early Wednesday. We’ll have to see how data trends over the next few days. If it starts showing more moisture, and a low tracking to our north, we may have to include severe weather wording in the forecast. Right now, we’re going to continue to fine tune the forecast. I think either way, heavy rain will become a big issue. There could even be some river flooding during this event.

Our weather turns colder on Thursday and Friday, as the upper air trough shifts into the south. The good news is the core of the cold air will be moving into Texas instead of Alabama. They’re going to be dealing with the “Blue Northerner”, as the folks in Texas call it.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV today at 5, 6, and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Thursday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:25 PM

A good Thursday to you! Temperatures got a little warmer than expected today, but I don’t think anyone is complaining. The sun angle is slowly getting higher, so a sunny day will warm a little more in late January than it will in late December. Tuscaloosa topped out at 59 degrees this afternoon, and some communities to our south made it to 60 degrees. Our weather will stay sunny over the next couple of days, which is going to give us a nice weekend. In-fact, our Saturday will be nearly perfect, with middle to upper 60s likely.

A cold front will be passing to our north tonight, but it will stay far enough north to keep most of the cloud cover out of here. As the trough lifts out of the southeast, cooler air will erode away with it. A general area of high pressure will keep us settled through Saturday. A big trough gets organized out west late in the weekend and early next week, which will put us under a shooting gallery of upper-air disturbances. Each disturbance will bring the risk of rain and extra clouds beginning on Sunday. The first area of low pressure will bring a few showers to southwest Alabama on Sunday, but should exit the area on Monday. Right now, I have a stray shower in the forecast on Monday, but rain coverage should stay at a minimum. We’ll continue under a southwest flow aloft, which means the unsettled weather will stick around until atleast Wednesday.

Models are coming into better agreement on next Tuesday’s storm system. As the subtropical jet and polar jet merge over the southern US, a vigorous storm system will get kicked off. While most data shows a cool rain, with a gulf low, one of our models threw us in a loop today. The 12z model run had a strong mid latitude cyclone developing over Texas and shifting into the Midwest. Strong warm air advection would drive our temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with a good bet for severe weather. Since this is an outlier to the other models, I’ll stick with rainy weather for now. Be sure to stay with us incase we have to adjust the forecast.

Be sure to join me today at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 3:30 PM

A good Wednesday to you! The snow forecast was right on last night, as only areas north of Fayette got anything at all. The good news is that temperatures remained well above freezing, so areas that did see a few flakes didn’t have any road issues. The upper level low responsible for the drizzle here last night is long gone. Dry and sunny weather has returned this afternoon across all of Alabama. As a weak area of high pressure slides nearby tonight and tomorrow, we’ll continue the calm conditions.

An upper air disturbance will bring a batch of clouds late tonight and early on Thursday, but there shouldn’t be anything more than clouds. The air will be too dry for wintry weather. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 20s. If skies would remain clear, temperatures would have a chance to reach the lower 20s. The upper air disturbance will quickly move out on Thursday and sunny skies will return. Highs should top out between 52 and 55 degrees. Friday will be even warmer, as the trough lifts out of the southeast. Some of our area will get into the 60s south of Tuscaloosa on Friday. I think we all have a chance to reach the lower 60s on Saturday.

The weather patter gets a little complicated on Sunday and Monday, as an upper level low sets up over the west and shoots upper air impulses our way. As lots of Pacific moisture moves in with the subtropical jet, we can expect a lot of clouds for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. It’s going to be hard to pinpoint when these small disturbances will arrive, so I’m going with a chance of showers on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. I think each day will stand a chance of rain, with rain becoming fairly heavy at some point early next week. The good news is that warmer air will take over, so I don’t see much of a wintry threat at this point. That could all chance, so be sure to stay with us as we fine-tune the forecast.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV today at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Mainly Just Drizzle Tonight. Snow Possible North of Hamilton – 9 PM Update

Here’s just an update based on radar trends. Looks like from Hamilton and points north is the best bet for getting any snow. The rest of us will get the spotty showers or light drizzle. Snow is falling across extreme north Mississippi, but that activity is moving more northeast than east.

Be sure to join me tonight at 10 for the latest on your forecast. Warm weather is on the way!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott