Friday Forecast Update – 3 PM… Perfect Weekend Ahead, Storms Monday… #alwx @wvua23

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Saturday and Sunday look absolutely perfect for being outdoors. Highs will be in the 80s both days with plenty of sun to go around. The evening will be a little cool, but the days will be rather warm. We will see an increase in moisture Sunday night in advance of another system moving in from the west. This added moisture and clouds will keep temperatures in the 60s Sunday night, and we will likely see rain start before sunrise Monday.

Expect periods of showers and storms on Monday, with some of the storms bringing heavy rainfall. At this point, the severe weather threat is low, and confined mainly to southern Alabama. Heavy rain will be the main story Monday as most locales will see 1-2 inches with some areas in the southern half of the state possibly seeing more.

Thing will warm back up on Tuesday and Wednesday before a big cool down that will start next Thursday.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

James Bryant

 

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Warm and Sunny Start To Weekend…Thursday Forecast Update 4:30 p.m.

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Good Thursday evening! Showers and storms have continued to develop over southern Alabama and shift into central Alabama. Nothing from the coastal storms have been severe today after making it to central Alabama and mostly likely will remain that way. To our west, a new line is developing with more shower and storm activity. This line should also remain under severe limits with the coastal storms robbing most of the energy for them. For the remainder of tonight, showers and storms will remain on and off with two different systems moving through. By tomorrow morning, skies will start to clear early and sunny skies arrive by the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but they will not last that way into the weekend.

This weekend will be a warm one with temperatures returning to the lower 80’s both days. Saturday will come with lots of sunshine, making for a great day outdoors. Sunday, the morning will likely start off mostly clear; however, the afternoon will start to see clouds start to develop ahead of a low that will develop along the coast and arrive overnight, into Monday.

Monday will start next work week off with showers and storms throughout the day. A similar set-up will happen then as it did today with coastal storms blocking most energy for any strong/severe storms to develop further north. Rain activity from the day should eventually end by Monday night. Tuesday will hold sunshine again and temperatures should warm back up quickly before another system arrives Wednesday. Moisture return Wednesday looks to remain low and only brings lighter showers with it. Wednesday’s front arrival looks to come perfectly timed with Monday’s low to pull in some cooler air from the north to make Thursday much cooler, with highs only in the mid 70’s.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes
Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes
Twitter: MetRoakes
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Radar Update…Severe Weather Threat Still Very Low (3/30/17, 2:10p.m.) @wvua23 #wxal

WVUA 2016

Good Thursday afternoon. Looking at radar right now, conditions show that our high resolution models are holding up well with what was forecasted for today. Right now, south Alabama is seeing a few storms that are producing some hail. Overall though, conditions look very good for the next several hours. The most worry we have right now is that the storms producing hail in south Alabama move into central Alabama and impact those east of I-65.

To the west, we see a very small band of showers and storms developing just east of the Mississippi River. This was the main worry for severe weather; however, our forecast has held up so far. The large cluster of showers and storms at the coast will limit any fuel from the Gulf to allow that line to get very strong.

Overall, the threat of severe weather today is VERY low. With any weather event, things can always change and we will be here in the studio to monitor, just in case.

Reggie Roakes
Facebook: Meteorologist Reggie Roakes
Twitter: MetRoakes
Instagram: Reggie Roakes

Severe Wx NOT Expected Today… Thursday Update – 9:30am #alwx @wvua23

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Good Thursday morning! Above is the HRRR and the 3km Nam, some of our highest resolution models available, valid for the early to mid afternoon hours. As discussed for days, model data continued to hint at a large cluster of storms near the Gulf coast, blocking the inflow of unstable air into central Alabama, preventing a risk of severe weather for today into early tonight.

Radar trends and our high resolution models agree that a large shield of light to moderate rain will expand into west and portions of central Alabama by the early to mid afternoon, with a few isolated storms embedded in the rain mass. You may want to grab your umbrella this morning incase it is raining where you are this afternoon.

While from a synoptic scale, the setup is favorable for severe weather, it’s the smaller scale feature that will prevent severe weather issues, atleast for Alabama. Think of the large area of storms near the Gulf coast as a giant straw, sucking energy off the Gulf. Rather than that energy or unstable air feeding into central Alabama, the storms to our south are robbing that needed fuel for severe weather. On the north side of the cluster of storms, stable air spreads across the area, greatly reducing or totally eliminating a risk of severe weather for the rest of the day.

It wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep an eye on any changes through the afternoon, but go through your day as normal. There is no need to cancel events or cancel school in a setup like this. It is highly unlikely that our area will experience anything more than periods of showers and maybe some thunder in spots. As always, we’ll be watching trends incase of any surprises..

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Rain & Storms on Thursday, Some Strong… Nice Weekend! Wednesday Forecast Update – 6pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Wednesday afternoon! New model data this evening continues to suggest coastal storms will limit the severe weather risk across west and central Alabama. At this time, widespread severe weather across any portion of central Alabama appears unlikely. Above is a look at the 4km RPM, which has been very consistent on the idea of coastal storms limiting or even preventing severe weather issues across our part of the state.

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Above is a map that highlights areas roughly near and northwest of I-59 in a low end risk of storms becoming strong to severe. The higher risk of a storm becoming severe will be over northwest Alabama, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee, generally northwest of Fayette, Jasper and Cullman. The time frame for storms to become strong to severe will be 3pm through midnight Thursday night. If storms can actually become severe across northwest Alabama, the main risk will be isolated damaging winds, isolated large hail and an isolated tornado.

While I think there is a high probability coastal storms will limit the risk of storms becoming severe across portions of west and central Alabama, if coastal storms are not as widespread as expected or are not there to block the inflow of unstable air into central Alabama, the risk could increase. Keep an eye on this and keep checking back with us for updates as this is a fluid situation and sudden changes are possible.

By the time you wake up Friday morning, storms will be long gone and our local weather will be dry and sunshine will quickly return.

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The weekend forecast is looking very nice, with a high approaching the 80 degree mark on Friday and Saturday. Look for plenty of sunshine Friday and Saturday, but clouds will increase on Sunday.

Our next system to watch arrives on Monday, with a good chance of rain and storms. At the moment, the severe weather risk for Monday remains very low. Models agree that coastal convection and the position of the surface low could prevent severe weather issues on Monday, but we will keep an eye on it. There is no cold air in sight.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Severe or No Severe on Thursday? Latest Thoughts… Wednesday Update – 1pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Wednesday to you! At 1pm, I’m looking over the very latest 12z data with the upcoming event on Thursday into Thursday night. This setup is about as complicated as a severe weather risk gets in Alabama. There are two very distinct scenarios that have completely different outcomes.

Here’s the deal… From a synoptic standpoint, the dynamics and thermodynamics are very impressive for a severe weather risk, especially over northwest Alabama, west Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Wind shear, instability, uplift, timing of the event all look impressive for severe weather, so what gives? Why is there a question to whether we have severe weather issues or just some periods of showers and storms?

We have to look at a smaller scale feature near the Gulf Coast. There is a real possibility a large cluster of storms will form near the Louisiana Gulf coast early tomorrow morning, then slowly move east through the afternoon hours on Thursday. The model above is the 4km RPM, which shows this exact scenario. If the storms are widespread enough near the coast, that will block the inflow of needed fuel or energy for storms to become severe across central and west Alabama. Unfortunately, not all of our computer model data agrees on this happening, so I have to atleast warn you of the possibility of strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

At worst case scenario, the Gulf is wide open and the dynamics tap into the environment ripe of severe weather. Strong to severe storms would be possible across all of central and west Alabama, with the higher risk of large hail, isolated tornadoes and damaging winds occurring to the northwest of I-59 (northwest of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden). The time line would be 3pm until midnight Thursday night.

Best case scenario and a very real possibility, a large cluster of storms on the coast blocks the best inflow of unstable air into the best dynamics and we get a few showers and storms, with little to no risk of storms becoming severe.

I can’t think of many events like this with so much uncertainty only 24 to 30 hours out, but I want you to be alert incase severe weather actually occurs. Have a plan ready to go and take action if needed. We will continue to update you on this event, and hopfully can share some better news when things become more clear.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Very Mild Temps Continue… Showers & Storms Thursday…. Tuesay Update – 4:25pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday afternoon! Our local weather has turned out very warm and very muggy this afternoon, with a combination of high air temperatures and high dewpoints. A few spotty showers continue across portions of central Alabama this afternoon, but most areas are currently dry. The risk of a spotty shower will diminish this evening, with skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures tonight will bottom off in the lower 60s.

We’re getting lots of questions about a risk of strong to severe storms on Thursday. After looking over tons of model data over the past 24 hours, I have noticed a trend that could prevent any severe weather issues in our area Thursday evening into Thursday night. The model image above is the 12z GFS, valid late Thursday night.

A surface low and upper air trough axis will be in a rather favorable position for a risk of strong to severe storms in Alabama, however, there is also a favorable setup for development of widespread thunderstorms near the coast. If you keep up with weather in Alabama and have through the years, you know widespread storms on the coast block the inflow of unstable air needed for severe weather in central Alabama. A large cluster of storms will suck the energy out of the atmosphere and basically leave our portion of central Alabama in rain with no severe weather.

Will this happen Thursday night? Based off our latest computer model data, there is excellent agreement in a Gulf Coast cluster of storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Confidence in this scenario is high, so the risk of severe weather in central Alabama looks low at this time. At best, if storms develop in our portion of central Alabama, they could produce gusty winds and isolated areas of small hail, but widespread severe weather would not happen. Keep in mind, if the storms are not on the coast, that would put us into a higher risk of strong to severe storms. Fortunately, I don’t see any evidence of our risk increasing at the moment.

Late Thursday afternoon into the pre-dawn hours Friday morning, have a source of weather information incase the setup and risk change. I will say this… if you see a big cluster of storms near the Louisiana to Alabama Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon, consider that a positive sign that central Alabama will deal with a very limited or non-severe risk…

Temperatures will drop into the low and middle 70s on Friday, with a gradual decrease in clouds. Expect lower 50s at night Friday night and Saturday night. By Sunday, we’ll warm to near 80 degrees, with a partly cloudy sky.

More storms arrive on Monday, and we’ll need to watch for the potential for any strong to severe storms. It’s interesting to note that models suggest a very similar setup Monday that we will deal with on Thursday. A cluster of storms may form on the coast on Monday, limiting the risk of anything severe in our portion of central Alabama… More on this as we get closer.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott