Severe Risk Thursday Night/Early Friday… Wednesday Update – 10pm

Good Wednesday evening! I’ve made some changes to our severe weather map due to changes in the latest model data. Instability is looking higher, especially over Mississippi, where big problems are possible. The western half of Mississippi may deal with several long track tornadoes during the evening hours on Thursday. The supercells will develop into a squall line after sunset Thursday and will continue to push east across Mississippi.

I had to bump up the severe weather risk for extreme west and northwest Alabama late Thursday night and very early Friday morning. This is due to higher forecast instability levels and higher wind shear numbers. While numbers are a little higher, they aren’t extreme. We will likely deal with a squall line, with the risk of wind damage and isolated tornadoes. The higher risk of wind damage and a few spin-up tornadoes will occur west of Jasper, Tuscaloosa and Livingston. As for the rest of west and central Alabama, there is a chance of isoalted wind damage and a stray tornado. East Alabama’s storms should stay below severe limits.

What time… The line of storms will reach the Hamilton, Vernon, Reform areas between midnight and 2am. Next stop, storms will reach the Fayette, Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Eutaw, Birmingham, Centreville, Demopolis, Marion, Linden areas between 2am and 6am. After 6am, the line of storms will pass well east of Birmingham, and Clanton. Behind the line itself, expect rain. The severe weather risk will remain along the leading edge of the squall line. Once the squall line reaches your area, the risk will pass east of you within an hour.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Mild Weather…Strong Storms…Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:30pm

Good Wednesday afternoon! Our weather continues very mild and muggy this afternoon, as highs reach the upper 80s under a tropical airmass. Temperatures are close to 90 degrees in spots, but most cities across west and central Alabama are below the 90 degree mark. A couple of storms have developed on radar, but they will die out just after sunset this evening.

Conditions will remain mild through tonight, with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 tonight. Skies will become mostly cloudy overnight tonight. Thursday’s weather is looking great, with highs in the upper 80s. A passing afternoon storm is possible, but most spots will remain rain free.

 

As for the risk of severe storms Thursday night/Friday morning…

A big severe weather event is happening today over the southern Plains. This storm system will gradually move our way and will bring the risk of another big severe weather event over Mississippi tomorrow. Our friends in central and west Mississippi could deal with a tornado outbreak as instability, lift and wind shear become favorable for tornadoes and wind damage between noon and 6pm near the Mississippi River. The storms will develop into a squall line and will reach west Alabama just after midnight Thursday night. The storms are coming through during a time where instability will be lower and a CAP or inversion will become rather strong across Alabama. The CAP will prevent cells from developing ahead of the squall line. As instability continues to drop off after midnight Thursday night and the best lift and wind shear exits the area to the north, I think the risk of severe weather will decrease with time Thursday night.

At this time, it looks like the squall line will produce scattered wind damage and an isolated tornado over west Alabama between 1am and 4am Friday morning. As the line moves east of Birmingham, the risk of severe weather looks very low over east Alabama. The storms will be weakening as they track across our area. This isn’t a big severe weather risk for Alabama, but you will still need to remain alert Thursday night. I can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two.

Some rain will remain possible behind the front through lunch on Friday, but any severe weather risk will be over by sunrise Friday morning. Temperatures will cool through the day on Friday, with highs in the 60s. A little sun will peak out late in the day on Friday.

The weekend forecast looks great, with lots of sun and cooler temperatures. Highs will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday and Sunday. If you’re going to Bryant-Denny for A-Day on Saturday, the weather looks nearly perfect. It will be cool Saturday morning, with temperatures in the lower 40s, but highs will get close to 70 after lunch on Saturday under a sunny sky.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Strong to Severe Storms Thursday Night/Early Friday Morning… Wednesday Update – 10:45am

 

Good Wednesday morning! After going through the latest forecast data, the chance of severe weather late Thursday night and early Friday morning is low. I expect a few storms along a squall line to get out of hand and produce wind damage. There is a small chance a storm could produce a quick spin-up tornado. Winds could gust to 60mph along the line, but that should be isolated. The best chance of isolated wind damage and a stray tornado will occur west of I-65… The main lacking factor is instability with this system. Values are forecasted to remain low through this event, so that will prevent a major severe weather risk. We’ll be watching…

 

 

What time… The squall line will enter northwest Alabama sometime after midnight. The line will be located from Hamilton to Columbus, MS around 1-2am. The line will reach Jasper to Tuscaloosa to Livingston between 2 and 4am. The line will then reach Cullman to Birmingham to Centreville to Linden between 4 and 6am. Next stop, areas near Gadsden to Talladega to Clanton between 5 and 8am. I know these times are specific, and some changes are possible in the time frame over the next 24 to 36 hours… Models really agree on this, so confidence is pretty high at this time.

 

 

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

 

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

 

 

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

 

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Image source: NWS Birmingham