Sunday 4/14/13 Evening Forecast Update – 7:45 PM

We had lots of clouds and rain showers across the area earlier today, with the highest rain totals coming in south of Interstate 2o. Clouds will hang tough tonight and with the residual moisture leftover, some patchy fog is likely to develop overnight tonight.

To star the work week, we will have a stalled frontal boundary to our north, stretching from the Ohio River Valley west-southwestward into the southern High Plains. South of this boundary, we’ll see partly to mostly conditions for your Monday with temperatures getting to around 80 degrees. Moisture will continue to increase by mid-week, so we might see a few afternoon and early-evening showers or storms for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the highest chances over the Tennessee Valley of Alabama. Overnight low temperatures will be rather mild, in the mid 60s.

Most of the forecast models continue to be in good agreement concerning our next potentially significant storm system. A strong cold front will be knocking on our doorstep here in west Alabama sometime early Friday morning. For the past couple of days, most model guidance has agreed this is the timeframe during which the storms will affect us. However, since we are still 5 days out, the timing could change.

As for potential severity, the good news is that right now the line of storms wouuld be coming through in the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning when the air should not be overly unstable. However, we cannot ignore the rich moisture content expected, with dew point temperatures in the mid to maybe upper 60s possible. Upper jet support looks fairly strong as well, with a diffluent jet pattern over our area which would favor enhanced surface uplift.

The bottom line is that we can expect a line of showers and storms sometime late Thursday evening into the early morning hours of Friday. Since this is severe weather season around here, we’ll need to watch this system closely. Even though the storms could be affecting us during the predawn hours of Friday, some storms could be strong to severe. It is still too early, though, to be specific on the type of severe weather that we could experience…stay tuned throughout the week.

The upcoming weekend looks fabulous as high pressure settles in behind the late-week storm system. We should see abundant sunshine with relatively cool temperatures of the mid 60s on Saturday, with low 70s possible Sunday. Overnight lows during the weekend will be quite chilly in the middle 40s.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather