Very Mild…Storms on Thursday…Nice Weekend… – Tuesday Forecast Update 4pm

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Good Tuesday afternoon! It is another very mild day across west and central Alabama, with all of our area reporting lower 80s. In-fact, as of 4pm, Montgomery was reporting 88 degrees! Temperatures will remain mild through Thursday before a touch of cooler air moves into the area.

In the short term, there’s no risk of rain across Alabama through tonight, with temperatures falling into the lower 60s late tonight. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy overnight tonight. As for Wednesday, we’ll forecast the risk of an afternoon storm or two. Most spots will remain rain free, as highs reach the middle 80s. A few upper 80 degree temperatures are possible on Wednesday.

As an upper air trough moves into Alabama on Thursday, a cold front will bring the risk of showers and storms to all of Alabama. A squall line – QLCS will slowly move through Alabama during the daylight hours on Thursday. Expect the line of storms to reach west Alabama sometime around daybreak. The line will move very slow across our area and it will continue to dump heavy rain over west Alabama through lunch and into the early afternoon hours. The leading edge of the line should cross I-65 by the midday or early afternoon hours. Good news… the severe weather parameters are low for an April event, so I don’t expect a major severe weather event. That being said, there is a chance of wind damage along the line and a low end risk of a stray tornado. Stay severe weather alert as the line of storms moves through Alabama.

Rain will end Thursday afternoon from west to east, with dry and cooler air taking over. Temperatures will struggle to reach the 70 degree mark on Friday, with a good supply of sun. Lows will fall into the upper 40s Thursday night and lower 40s on Friday night. Expect lots of sun on Saturday and Sunday. Highs will reach the lower 70s on Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday. We’re back in the 80s on Monday and Tuesday, as the next risk of scattered showers returns to the state.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

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Storms on Thursday, Some Severe… Tuesday Update – 9am

Severe Weather Setup

Good Tuesday morning! As new model data comes in, the trend is slower… An upper air ridge is forecasted to remain strong across the southeast today and on Wednesday, so there are no worries for severe weather these two days. Temperatures will remain very mild, with highs well into the 80s.

The changes will occur on Thursday, as the upper air ridge (Block) weakens and the upper air trough slides into the area. This will set the stage for a battle of the airmasses, so it will take a while for the cold front and storms to move through our area. I do not expect a quick hitting event, where it’s over in an hour. Look for the line of storms to creep into west Alabama after sunrise Thursday morning and continue to track east through the midday and early afternoon hours. The leading edge of the storms should cross I-65 between noon and 3pm on Thursday. This means we’re expecting heavy rain and thunderstorms for much of Thursday morning in west Alabama and much of Thursday afternoon in east Alabama. Since there’s lots of moisture in the atmosphere, expect some flash flooding issues along the line of storms. I wouldn’t be shocked if some areas pick up well over 2 inches of rain in a few hours.

As for the severe weather risk… The line of storms will pack a punch when they move through, but severe weather parameters such as instability and wind shear are not impressive at all for an April event. For a tornado or severe weather outbreak in April, you need high levels of instability, strong wind shear, a strong low level jet, and a powerful lifting mechanism. With this event, we don’t have a match of these ingredients. So what can you expect… A squall line – QLCS will bring the risk of damaging winds in scattered spots across west and central Alabama. I don’t think wind damage will be widespread at this point, but if you go under a severe thunderstorm warning, go inside and stay away from windows. Never drive during a severe thunderstorm! The risk of a tornado is very low. That being said, it’s not out of the question a spin-up tornado forms somewhere along the line of storms. If you are issued under a tornado warning, go indoors, lowest floor, away from windows, interior room such as a closet or bathroom. Avoid a car and a mobile home during a tornado!

Stay alert on Thursday as the storms move through the area. I’ll continue to update you through TV, facebook, twitter and the blog.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua