Very Mild Through Wednesday. Storms Ahead… Monday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23
February 27, 2017 Leave a comment
Good Monday afternoon! We’ve had a soaker of a rain event this morning and into the afternoon across much of west and central Alabama. Rain amounts have varied from 1″ on the high end to 1/4th an inch on the low end. Scattered showers continue to move into Alabama from the west, but the widespread moderate rain has ended. As a warm front moves northward tonight, temperatures will rise into the low 60s by sunrise tomorrow morning. A few showers will remain possible at times as the front moves north across the area.
Tuesday will feature very mild temperatures, with a high in the upper 70s. A few areas may touch 80 over central and southwest Alabama Tuesday afternoon. A few scattered showers will remain possible, especially north of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston. A cold front will push through Alabama Wednesday afternoon, bringing a risk of a few strong storms and perhaps a few severe storms. Below are my thoughts on this event…
First, I do NOT expect Wednesday to be an outbreak event. This appears to be a rather low end risk of damaging winds and maybe an isolated spin-up tornado. The parameters we look at when forecasting severe weather simply do not overlap very well. The best wind shear will be moving out as the best instability and uplift is moving in, and the strongest uplift will be displaced well north of Alabama. The surface low will be near the Canadian boarder as the storms move in, which tends to be a limiting factor for severe weather and tornadoes in Alabama.
I think the highest potential for damaging winds and tornadoes will occur in Tennessee and Kentucky, as that will be where the greatest overlap occurs. Down our way, I expect a rather thin line of storms to blow through west and central Alabama during the midday through late afternoon. Storms should reach far west Alabama sometime around noon, then exit east Alabama into Georiga by 8pm. The line of storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, brief heavy rain and intense lightning. Small hail will be possible, with a few isolated areas of damaging strait line winds. The risk of tornadoes appears really low, but I can’t rule out a spin-up somewhere on the line.
Please understand, these things can change. We’re close enough and models have been consistent enough for my confidence to be high on the outcome, however, we always want you to be alert going into an event like this incase something changes. We will be watching radar and providing updates for you through the event. If there is a tornado warning issued, you can tune into WVUA for live, non-stop coverage. Also, you can go to wvua23.com, click weather and hit the weather stream option to watch us non-stop online as well.
For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist