Low End Severe Risk for Tuesday… Monday Night Thoughts… 10pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Monday evening! We’re carefully watching trends ahead of a developing storm system. There are no issues across our area tonight, and I don’t expect any problems through early Tuesday morning. Above is a threat area for an isolated storm or two becoming severe, with a risk of isolated wind damage, hail and a stray, spin-up tornado. The risk area includes all of west and central Alabama between 11am and 7pm…

Models continue to show the severe weather parameters mismatched somewhat, which will limit this risk from becoming anything significant. You need a good combination of uplift, wind shear and instability to produce a severe weather risk across Alabama. The best wind shear will be moving north of Alabama by Tuesday afternoon, with the best instability over south Alabama.

Below is a look at the RPM, a computer model simulated radar. According to this and other high-resolution models, a batch of strong to perhaps a severe storm moving into extreme west Alabama around 10am to 11am, then shifting east through the early afternoon. The time-stamp below is at 11am Tuesday.

Below is a time-stamp at 2pm off the RPM. Again, this is simulated radar or what radar could look like during the early afternoon. A batch of intense storms, a few of which could be strong to isolated severe.

Storms should be east of our area and into Georgia by 7pm Tuesday evening, with only a few lingering showers over central Alabama during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night.

Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone. We will also facebook live severe weather coverage. Just look for WVUA23 on facebook!

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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Mild Now… Storms on Tuesday… Cooler by Thursday… – Monday Forecast Update 3:45pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Monday afternoon! After low clouds, some drizzle and fog this morning, conditions have become mostly sunny across most of central and south Alabama this afternoon. The clearing line continues to progress northward, so if you’re in the clouds now, some clearing should occur before sunset. Temperatures will gradually fall into the upper 50s overnight. With a south wind developing overnight, widespread fog is unlikely. Expect clouds to increase again tonight and into Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, an upper air disturbance will kick off a round of showers and storms by late morning near the Mississippi boarder, then progress eastward across Alabama through the early afternoon. While the severe weather risk appears low, a few strong storms are possible. There could even be a severe storm or two across portions of central Alabama, but this is a limited risk. A storm may produce a damaging wind gust, hail and an isolated small tornado. The risk includes all of west and central Alabama, so we’ll be watching radar trends between late morning and early evening. Roughly 11am to 7pm is the main time-frame we’ll be watching radar. Temperatures will approach 70 on Tuesday.

Even warmer air is likely on Wednesday, as models hint at upper 70s across all of west and central Alabama. Depending on how much sun we see, some spots may actually approach 80 degrees. Models have really trended less aggressive on any risk of strong storms on Wednesday, in-fact, there is only a 30% risk of a few isolated showers and storms. There is a real chance you don’t get any rain at your house on Wednesday. Cooler air will take over Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday, with a brisk north wind. The cool spell won’t last long, as a warm-up will begin on Friday and continue into the weekend. Highs will top out in the 70s this weekend!

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott