Potential Severe Weather Event Tomorrow Night… Sunday Forecast Update — 7:00pm

Good Sunday evening! The sunshine hung on here in Tuscaloosa and we warmed up to 89° this afternoon! It certainly feels like summer today, and means the cool air next week will feel even better. Unfortunately, all this warm air also means a more unstable atmosphere for storms to develop and potentially become severe.

Tonight we’ll see the storms in our northern counties die off, a few showers may swing through Central Alabama tonight, but most will stay dry. Temperatures cool off tonight into the mid-upper 60s.

Tomorrow is the big day for weather. The cold front is digging into the Midwest, and storms will start tomorrow morning and afternoon in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. These storms will eventually congeal into a squall line in Mississippi and swing through Alabama Monday night into Tuesday morning. Here is a breakdown on what Monday and Tuesday will look like for most as the cold front approaches.

Monday — 9am: Partly sunny conditions across Central Alabama, expect very breezy conditions coming out of the south. The temperature will still be quite warm in the mid 70s, and dewpoints (a measurement of moisture) will steadily increase into the upper 60s.

Monday — 3pm: Clouds and storms begin to spark across South and West Alabama. Temperatures will top out this afternoon in the mid-upper 80s. Expect the warmest temperatures in eastern Alabama. The potential for severe storms to develop during the afternoon hours ahead of the main squall line is quite possible, be weather alert as you approach then of your work day or school day and know where the storms are as you are preparing to head home.

Monday — 9pm: Some scattered storms continue to fire across Alabama as the main squall line marches eastward through Mississippi. The threat for severe weather will continue through the night.

Tuesday — 3am: Squall line will be progressing through West Alabama bringing significant amounts of rainfall, gusty winds, and a couple of isolated tornadoes embedded within the squall line. Temperatures will remain mild tonight in the mid 60s.

Tuesday — 9am: The squall line continue to move through Central Alabama, slowly clearing behind the line as the cold front brings in dry, cool air.

Tuesday — 3pm: Storms may still linger in southeastern Alabama; however, most of us will be drying out and cooling off. A couple of showers could pop up again Tuesday evening, but these will not be severe in nature. High temperatures today will stick to the 70s.

Below the Storm Prediction Center’s map of the slight risk area for Monday morning through Tuesday morning. All of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and the majority of Alabama are within the slight risk.

A couple of showers could reappear again on Wednesday, for areas north of I-20, however most of us will stay sunny and dry Wednesday with cool temperatures only reaching the upper 60s and low 70s. Thursday through the weekend will be dry with high temperatures slowly creeping back toward the 80° mark by Saturday.

The weather looks mostly sunny and dry for next weekend’s football contest between #7 Alabama and #21 Texas A&M.

The tropics have remained very quiet until this weekend. Hurricane Fay has moved past Bermuda as is now spinning back to the east, away from the U.S. coasts. However, another Tropical Storm has quickly burst onto the scene, near the Leeward Islands and is expected progress west into the Caribbean, and crossing Puerto Rico Monday night as a strong tropical storm. Current indications are for TS Gonzalo to turn northward after crossing Puerto Rico and strength into a hurricane. After Puerto Rico, no islands or landforms are expected to take a direct hit from Gonzalo for now. Tropical storm warnings are already in place for all of Puerto Rico as well as the Leeward Islands, the British and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank

WVUA Staff Meteorologist

Twitter: crankyweather

Strong to Severe Storms Monday Night/Tuesday Morning… Sunday Update – 1pm #alwx

Good Sunday afternoon! We are closely watching the storm system due in here tomorrow night and early Tuesday morning. A very strong storm system for mid October is developing across the central and southern Plains at this time and will be pushing east through the day on Monday. A very unstable airmass will develop over the southern Mississippi River Valley (west of Alabama), where large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible Monday afternoon and early evening. As the cold front get closer to Alabama, a squall line will take shape and blow through west, central and east Alabama overnight Monday and into the morning hours of Tuesday. With very strong uplift, some instability and wind shear, there is no doubt there’s a risk of strong to severe storms across Alabama. The big question will be any limiting factors such as rain breaking out ahead of the line, which would decrease instability, or storms forming near the coast and robbing energy and instability inflow into the state, or the exact strength and position of the surface low. There are several factors that could increase or decrease the risk, so it will be a good idea to remain weather alert during the risk time-frame. Here’s what we know right now:

What to expect: A squall line will pass through Alabama, bringing the risk of damaging winds, hail, intense lightning, heavy rain and isolated tornadoes. The best chance of anything becoming severe will occur in west Alabama, where instability will be higher, but severe storms are possible across any portion of west, central and east Alabama. We will have to watch radar close, incase any cells form ahead of the main line. At this time, the risk of severe storms ahead of the line is fairly low. If the line can remain very strong as it tracks across Alabama, damaging strait line winds will be the highest concern.

What time: The timing has slowed down some, so keep in mind these changes… The line should reach far west Alabama sometime around 10pm, then very slowly spread eastward. Central Alabama will start to feel the effects of the squall line after midnight and into the early morning hours of Tuesday morning. The line will finally move out of east Alabama during the mid to late morning hours of Tuesday morning and out of our coverage area. The severe weather risk will end from west to east during the morning hours of Tuesday morning. It’s a fairly large window due to the fact that the line will be slowly progressing east.

What to do: If you go under a severe thunderstorm warning, stay away from windows and remain indoors. Some of the strongest storms may produce winds of 60 to 70mph. If you go under a tornado warning, go into your tornado safe place and turn up the volume on the TV on WVUA. We’ll be on air non-stop during a tornado warning. The best place to go is in a storm shelter, basement or the lowest floor, interior room or closet in your house.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also,look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua