Mild Days Continue… Severe Storms Possible Monday Eve… Thursday Forecast Update – 6pm #alwx

Good Thursday afternoon! It has turned out to be another very warm day across Alabama, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to near 90 in many spots. As the sun sets this evening, temperatures will gradually cool into the 70s, then middle 60s after midnight tonight. The risk of rain is less than 20% this evening, but I can’t rule out a passing shower or storm north of I-20.

The weather on Friday through the weekend will feature mild temperatures and muggy conditions. I can’t rule out a stray shower or storm over the next few days, but the risk of rain in any one spot is about 30%. The best chance of getting a downpour will happen in areas near and north of I-20. The risk of rain is near or less than 20% south of I-20. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, keep the umbrella handy to be safe. I do not expect a major rain event this weekend.

We’re really watching out next storm system close, as we start off next work week. A very strong storm system for this time of the year will take shape to the northwest of Alabama. As a deep surface low and vigorous upper air trough swings across the state, the risk of strong to severe storms will become possible. Below are some images of a time-line this system will pass across Alabama. Understand, big forecast changes are possible, so lets all keep an eye on this one. Here’s what we know right now… The first image is at 3pm on Monday. Severe storms could break out across Mississippi, then move into far west Alabama shortly after 3pm on Monday. While the form of severe weather is still in question, anything from damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will become possible, especially if model data continues to strengthen this system. There is time for model data to slack off on the strength of this system, which would reduce the risk. Again, lets all keep an eye on this incase there is a risk of severe weather in your area.

Below is where the risk of strong to severe storms will exist Monday evening and Monday night. All of west and central Alabama will be in the risk at that time, but a reminder the timing may change a touch. This is just what we know at this time.

By early Tuesday morning, the strong to severe storms should be moving out of east Alabama and completely into Georgia and the Carolinas. At this time, I expect the risk of anything severe to quickly exit our area.

Football Friday: Most stadiums should be dry for high school football Friday night, with only a 20% risk of an isolated storm or two. Temperatures will fall into the 70s during the local games under a partly cloudy sky.

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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