Nice Fall Weather Continues… Warmer Weekend… Wednesday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Warnings_915

Good Wednesday afternoon! After a chilly start to the day, conditions really turned out nice again this afternoon. Temperatures have recovered nicely into the lower 70s as of 4pm, but temperatures will cool quickly after sunset. Look for clear skies tonight, with temperatures dropping into the 50s by 7pm, and 40s after 10pm. Lows tonight will reach the lower 40s for many, with a few upper 30s north of I-20.

Thursday and Friday will be absolutely gorgeous weather days, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows will remain in the chilly 40s at night. Skies remain mostly sunny over the next few days, as a weak area of high pressure moves across the area. There is no risk of rain over the next 5 days. Temperatures will start to warm a bit by the weekend, with highs returning into the upper 70s. A few spots could reach 80 this weekend, under a sunny sky.

The Friday night football forecast is looking great, with temperatures dropping into the 50s during the local high school games. Expect clear skies and calm winds for the games…

We’re watching tropical depression # 9 in the Bay of Campeche at this hour. Good news… the system remains weak and models keep it well away from Alabama’s Gulf Coast. I don’t expect any issues out of this feature, but we will keep an eye on the tropics as we gradually end the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season in about a month.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

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SPC’s Severe Weather Outlooks Change Today! Wednesday Update – 3:45pm #alwx

Warnings_913

Good Wednesday afternoon! First off, please note, this is not a current severe weather risk for our area… These two images serve as an example only.

The Storm Prediction Center has now changed the convective outlooks to include more risk levels. The image above shows the old SPC convective outlooks of slight, moderate and high. Each risk would indicate a level of severity a particular event would produce. Moderate and high risks are understood pretty well by the public, so SPC did not change the moderate and high risk category. The big struggle comes from explaining the slight risk to the average viewer.

When looking at a severe weather event, a slight risk can mean a lot of things from a very minor event to a significant event. If an event were to include a slight risk of severe weather, most people would take that to be no big deal. On some slight risk days, we can see multiple tornadoes or large hail and or damaging winds. Or, on some slight risk days, maybe one spin-up tornado develops or one spot gets some hail and or wind.Warnings_914

The SPC has added two new levels to surround the slight risk, a marginal on the low end and a enhanced on the high end. Check the image above for the new outlook. Notice, the moderate and high risk stay the same, but we’ve added a marginal risk and an enhanced risk to the map. The marginal risk includes the very low end version of a slight risk. On days where there could be some isolated severe weather, but it’s not expected to be a significant event. To go higher on the scale, you still have a standard slight risk, where some severe weather is expected, but not a widespread outbreak type of day. Even higher, you’ve now got an enhanced risk of severe weather. This means, the risk is serious, and needs to be watched very carefully. On an enhanced severe weather risk day, the threats may include tornadoes, and or damaging winds and or large hail.

Here’s the exact breakdown from SPC in terms of the probably of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point:

b. Severe Category 1 – Marginal
– 2% tornado probability, or
– 5% severe hail or severe wind probability.

c. Severe Category 2 – Slight
– 5% tornado probability, or
– 15% severe hail or severe wind probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or wind gusts 75 mph or greater.

d. Severe Category 3 – Enhanced
– 10% tornado probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 15% tornado probability, or
– 30% severe hail or severe wind probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
– 45% probability of severe hail or wind.

e. Severe Category 4 – Moderate
– 15% tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 30% tornado probability, or
– 45% severe wind probability AND 10% or greater
probability of a wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
– 45% severe hail probability AND 10% or greater
probability of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
– 60% severe wind probability, or
– 60% severe hail probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter.

f. Severe Category 5 – High
– 30% tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 45% or greater tornado probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 60% severe wind probability AND a 10% or greater
probability of a wind gust 75 mph or greater.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott