Tropical Storm Rina Forms in Caribbean – 10 p.m.

TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA …PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF RINA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INFORMATION FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8 p.m.

Today has been interesting to say the least.  Our current shortwave has proven to be a very persistent feature this afternoon, finally bringing some showers to the area.  When these systems get going, they tend to have a mind of their own.  They alter the environment to suit what they want to do, including staying together and producing rain in an otherwise stable environment.  For the rest of the night we can expect to see this feature continue to push across the state, likely weakening slightly, but giving folks along and north of interstate 20 a brief shower. 

Monday through Wednesday will be the set up for our next weather maker in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.  These 3 days will feature another surface ridge setting up across the southeast United States, with flow aloft.  This should allow for a little moderation in both overnight lows and daytime highs.  A return flow of low-level gulf moisture should also begin on Tuesday, though this will be slow and weak.

Model consensus shows a bit of a slowdown in our next system, but continues to show the best time for rain/thunderstorms this week will be Thursday night and Friday.  The problem remains to be the evolution of said system.  Fortunately, still not seeing much in the way of overall dynamics creating a big problem for us.  The general thought is for an open-wave trough out of the Pacific Northwest to begin digging into the center of the country early on Wednesday.  The big issue the medium and long range models look to be having is whether or not the energy from this wave gets split, sending a weak northerly wave across the Great Lakes region and the southern portion of the wave weakly digging into the Southeast.  The splitting of this energy will likely be our saving grace in the face of severe weather.  We look to stay north of any warm front that may form, keeping any real potential instability to our south.  The 12z Euro remains the more progressive of our long range models, pushing any rain out of the area by late Friday afternoon, while the GFS hangs onto rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With days 4 and 5 normally providing a mish-mash of solutions, the forecast could still change between now and then.  This includes a return to cooler temperatures by next weekend, but not nearly as cool as we have seen due to the fact that this trough is originating out of the Pacific Northwest and not central Canada.  This should keep the extremely cold temperatures north of Alabama.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Tropical Depression 18 Forms in Caribbean – 4 p.m.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.