Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 10 p.m.

A short wave trough will cross the central Rockies Monday…resulting in surface low cyclogenesis in the southern plains along a stalled frontal boundary. High pressure currently over the Southeast will shift eastward. With westerly flow aloft, surface winds becoming southerly and clear skies. Temperatures Monday will be a couple degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Weak moisture return from the Gulf will keep overnight lows a few degrees higher tonight and Monday night. Tonight expect lows generally in the 50s with a few locations in the upper 40s in the northeast. Monday night lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

The surface low developing in the plains will ride along the front to the northeast, dragging a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday. Models have trended slower today, keeping most of the rain west of us before Tuesday morning and the front passing through the area before Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A broad surface low and mid level trough will move northward from near the Yucatan toward northwest Florida. How the gulf low and the approaching shortwave/front interact will dictate how much rainfall occurs across West Alabama, particularly in the southeast. We think the circulation around the gulf low and the southwesterly winds ahead of the trough approaching from the west will keep deep gulf moisture across Florida, far southeast Alabama and Georgia.

With the slower timing of the front it does allow instabilities increase due to additional daytime heating. Don’t see much consensus amongst models when it comes to the finer details, the NAM remains the strong outlier of model solutions. Despite overall instabilities being limited, there is enough forcing and lift along the front to warrant thunderstorms and a small threat of gusty winds and small hail.

Big weather story of this week will be the much cooler airmass that will filter into the area behind the front. With strong cold advection, highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s Wednesday and Thursday with sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s and 40s Wednesday through Friday mornings. A tightened pressure gradient will prevent winds from diminishing Wednesday or Thursday morning, which should prevent widespread frost problems. As high pressure builds to our north Friday morning, lighter winds overnight could lead to widespread frost.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

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Tropical Update – Sunday 7 p.m.

 

Surface observations and radar data from Cancun, Mexico and La Bajada, Cuba indicate that the large and elongated area of low pressure located near the Yucatan Peninsula has changed little in organization.  The system is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms across most of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas.  Additionally, winds to near tropical storm force are occurring in the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel  and the western straits of Florida.  Although this system is likely to interact with the land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so, some gradual development is possible as the low moves slowly northwestward.  This system has a medium chance, 50 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is expected to continue over the yucatan peninsula and western cuba during the next couple of days.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather