What To Expect Wednesday…Quick Update… Monday – 4:45pm

Good Monday afternoon! There will be no severe weather issues between now and midnight Tuesday night. While the weather is very warm and feels humid, we’re ok for now.

When will the storms arrive…

Showers will increase after midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The risk of severe storms will reach the west Alabama state line sometime around 3 am Wednesday, as a squall line moves into the state. The severe storms will move east of I-65 around 9 am and into Georgia near noon. Once the severe weather moves into your area, it won’t last more than an hour before moving east of you.

What will happen…

A squall line will bring widespread damaging wind to much of west and central Alabama. Winds of 60 to 80 mph are very possible for anyone across west and central Alabama. While the main threat is widespread wind damage, isolated tornadoes are possible. Any isolated tornadoes that spin up in the squall line should be small and short-lived. If data is correct, there will be lots of trees falling and some powerlines. Since this will be happening while many are driving to school or work, use caution and allow extra driving time incase you come across a downed tree and powerline.

Have a source to get severe weather information incase a tornado warning is issued for your area. Since winds could reach 60 to 80 mph within the squall line, it would be a good idea to go to a safe place if you’re issued under a severe thunderstorm warning. Again, the severe risk will quickly end from west to east during the morning hours on Wednesday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Severe Weather Wednesday Morning… Monday Afternoon Forecast Update – 3pm

Good Monday afternoon! Our weather has turned out very nice this afternoon, with a return to sunshine and mild temperatures. As of 3 pm, conditions were very mild and partly cloudy. As a warm airmass takes over, most spots reached the upper 60s to around 70 this afternoon. As the sun sets this evening, temperatures will fall rather slower than normal. Higher moisture levels will keep overnight lows well above normal for this time of the year; in-fact, our overnight lows will be close to our average highs. Look for temperatures to fall into the middle 50s late tonight.

If you have plans out doors on Tuesday, you may need the shorts after lunch. Highs will approach record levels across all of west and central Alabama. Look for a high in the middle 70s on average, with a few upper 70s in spots. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through our Tuesday plans, but the risk of rain is low. While the risk is low for a spotty shower tomorrow, a warm and moist environment will help to develop one or two showers on radar. Most of us won’ t get a drop of rain until Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Get out and enjoy it if you can tomorrow because it will be the last really warm day for a little while.

Above is the time-line and what to expect map for Wednesday morning. We’ll notice the development of a squall line west of Alabama during the day on Tuesday, where a severe weather outbreak is expected over Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas. In that part of the south, tornadoes and damaging winds are likely. Our severe weather issues won’t arrive until early Wednesday morning. While it looks like west Alabama will deal with severe weather just before or near sunrise, central and east Alabama will have severe weather issues after daybreak Wednesday morning.

Typically, instability is a bit lower during the early morning hours because it’s usually the coolest part of the day. I think instability will be high enough to cause issues in west and central Alabama during this event, due to the warm and moist air flowing north. Warm and moist air advection can offset overnight cooling. Another negative with this system is the fact that most people will be in bed when the event gets kicked off in west Alabama. Please make sure you have a source, such as a NOAA Weather Radio, to wake you up incase a tornado warning is issued for your area. You can then flip on the TV to WVUA/WUOA for the latest.

Look for the squall line to reach west Alabama sometime around 3 am and continue to push east through 9 am. The severe threat looks to be east of Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Demopolis and Linden by 9 am or so. Expect the severe weather mess to move well east of I-65 around 10 am and track into Georgia around lunch. Understand, these times may change by a few hours, so it’s important to keep an eye right here for the latest.

The squall line will bring the risk of widespread, damaging winds Wednesday morning to all of west and central Alabama. In the squall line, there could be a few small spin-up tornadoes. Understand, these quick spin-ups in a squall line are hard to warn for. It would be a good idea to go into your safe place as the line reaches your area. It will be a quick hitting event; in-fact, the severe part of the storms shouldn’t last more than 30 minutes to 1 hour at your house. Once the line passes your house, you’ll be left with nothing more than rain and thunder for a while.

Cold air takes over by Wednesday afternoon, with falling temperatures. We’ll drop into the 50s after lunch and 30s after midnight Wednesday night.

Skies will become sunny on Thursday and Friday, with chilly temperatures. Highs will reach the lower 50s in most spots, with lows in the upper 20s to around 30 by Friday morning and Saturday morning. A fast moving disturbance may bring some clouds and a stray shower on Saturday, but surface temperatures should be too warm for any frozen precipitation; plus, moisture looks really starved for that system.

A slow warming trend takes over to end the weekend and start of next week.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Severe Weather Setup for Wednesday Morning… Monday Update – 9 am

Good Monday morning! If you’ve stepped outside, you may have noticed how warm and humid it’s starting to feel. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the lower 70s across all of west and central Alabama. Temperatures like this are unusual for late January to say the least, and now we’re watching a very dynamic storm system move our way. It can be warm and humid through the entire winter without problems, but you can get problems when it involves a strong storm system.

Above is the convective outlook, issued by the Storm Prediction Center. They have placed all of west and central Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday morning. Since this is their day 3 outlook, it’s pretty standard with no enhanced threat areas forecasted at this time. I expect that to change some as we get a little closer due to the damaging wind risk.

What to expect: A squall line will develop to the west of Alabama sometime on Tuesday and race eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Areas over Arkansas, west Mississippi and west Tennessee may deal with a few supercells ahead of the main line; these will bring a higher risk for tornadoes to the west of Alabama. After sunset, all models generally agree that instability will start to drop off a bit as the surface temperature cools some. Often times, instability drops some at night due to the loss of afternoon heating. That being said, the advection of warm and moist air off the gulf will continue to bring some instability into all of west and central Alabama, just not as high as it would if it were mid-afternoon. It doesn’t take much instability to create severe weather problems, so don’t let your guard down.

The squall line will then move into west Alabama sometime around 3 or 4 am and gradually move from west to east. At this time, I don’t see much of a risk for cells to develop out ahead of the main line. If any cells do develop, they stand a higher chance of producing tornadoes. Along the squall line, there’s a good chance of damaging winds of 70 to 80 mph. A few quick spin-up tornadoes are also possible along the line. The tornado threat is fairly isolated, but a few warnings are expected. Since the winds just above the ground are forecasted to be very strong, it won’t take much to get that to the ground. Forecast soundings indicate winds of 80 mph only 4,000 feet above the surface. Thunderstorms can easily bring that down to the ground, hints why I’m really concerned about widespread damaging winds early Wednesday morning. Once the storms move over your location, it damaging winds will become a big issue for many. Since the storms will be moving from west to east at a fast speed, it won’t take more than an hour to get the severe weather issues past you; that is, once the severe storms start in your area.

Time-frame: The map above shows the general time-line for when the severe weather will arrive at your house. Areas over west Alabama, I expect severe weather issues between 3 am and 7 am. This is a bad time because many people are still asleep. Please make sure you have a source to wake you up. If you go under a tornado warning, we will be on air to let you know about it. Tune into WVUA/WUOA for the latest. The threat will end for areas near and west of Haleyville, Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Greensboro, Demopolis and Linden by 7am, as the storms continue to move east. While there will be some rain and lightning behind the storms for a while, the severe weather threat will have moved east of you by that point. The line of severe storms should be east of I-65 by 9 or 10am, and into Georgia by noon. Understand, some changes in the time-frame are possible, so keep checking here for updates.

Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is ready to go and has fresh back-up batteries. Have fresh batteries for your regular radio and flashlight incase you lose power. Be ready to act fast on a severe weather plan incase a tornado warning is issued for your area. Keep a bike helmet and pillows in your safe place during a tornado warning. If you don’t have a NOAA Weather Radio, now is the time to get one. They can be a life-saver, especially while asleep. Again, we’ll be on TV if tornado warnings are in our area.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com