Cold Weather Continues…A Few Flakes on Thursday… Tuesday Eve Forecast Updat – 5:45pm

Good Tuesday evening! We’re dealing with a mess across west and central Alabama, as mist, rain, fog and cold air bring about nasty weather conditions. There are no issues with icing this evening, due to above freezing temperatures; most spots in west and central Alabama are dealing with temperatures in the 40s at this 5 O’clock hour. Above is your 7-day forecast. Notice how temperatures remain cold through Thursday, but a slight warming trend takes over on Friday and Saturday.

Fog is becoming an issue tonight, so use caution if driving late tonight or early tomorrow morning. We are getting reports of dense fog already at this 5 O’clock hour, and it’s expected to become widespread later tonight. The counties highlighted across west and central Alabama are under a dense fog advisory. This includes areas generally near and south of I-20. Look for rain to continue at times through tonight and Wednesday, but the heavier rain has ended for the moment. We are watching a band of moderate rain over central Mississippi this evening. That will impact areas along and north of I-20 tonight, with additional flooding issues if the rain is heavy enough.

We are watching a developing upper level low over the southwestern US at this time. Forecast models are in good agreement in the track of the low right across central Alabama. Since this is associated with very cold air above the surface, we’ll have to keep an eye on a changeover to a rain snow mix of light snow as the system arrives Thursday morning. Models have backed off on the amount of available moisture, so the event looks very minor at this point. The map above shows what I generally expect Thursday morning and early afternoon across west an central Alabama. Since ground temperatures are pretty warm, it’s unlikely any accumulations occur west of I-65, but a quick dusting to 1 inch is possible east of I-65. Temperatures will remain above freezing, so travel issues appear unlikely at this time. We will need to keep an eye on this system incase any quick changes develop.

The upper level low will quickly move out of the area Thursday night, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s for lows. Skies become sunny on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The first half of the weekend is looking great, with highs in the middle 50s. The dry weekend weather will give our rivers a chance to subside somewhat. Lows will remain chilly leading into the weekend, with temperatures in the 20s at night.

A deep upper air trough will develop and move into the east on Sunday and Monday. That will bring the risk of some very cold air to start off the next week. Highs will fall into the 40s on Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 20s.

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Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Latest Thoughts on The Risk of Snow Thursday… Tuesday Update 3pm

Good Tuesday afternoon! There’s already lots of talk about an Alabama snow storm on Thursday. Let me say upfront, this is a low confidence forecast due to the varying computer model solutions. One trend I’ve noticed on all models is a drying trend. The models are starting to lack on the amount of moisture across Alabama as the cold core upper level low arrives Thursday morning. Above is the NAM, valid for 9am Thursday morning. The core of the upper level low is situated over the Alabama/Mississippi state line near Pickens County at that time.  While this model has a deep upper level low, which would be perfect for a snow event across central and west Alabama, all of the precipitation is well east of the core of the cold pocket. This would suggest a rain event Wednesday night, with a small chance of a few snow flakes on the back side of the rain shield. In order to have a good snow event and accumulations, there must be precipitation under the core of the upper level low. Don’t forget, this is the model that was the model that was showing 6 inches of snow over north Alabama in lastnight’s model run. There is certainly a drying trend on this particular model. We’ll see if this trend continues over the next few model runs.

Above is the European computer model, valid for noon on Thursday. This has the core of the upper level low over Tuscaloosa at that time. While there’s some precipitation under the core of the upper level low, this would suggest pretty much the same as the latest run of the NAM, with rain ending around midday on Thursday. There would be a low chance of rain changing to snow flurries or a quick burst of light snow as the precipitation ends. This wouldn’t suggest an accumulating snow event. Remember, the ground is still fairly warm because of our mild weather recently. It would have to take a heavy burst of snow to get the ground white. According to the very latest run of the NAM and European, the risk of accumulating snow looks very low.

Here’s the latest run of the GFS. Much like the other computer models above, the core of the upper level low is separated from the heavier precipitation. The GFS would suggest a quick change to flurries or light snow along I-20 on the back side of the precipitation. According to this model, the risk of accumulating snow would be pretty unlikely. This model is valid for noon on Thursday.

Now, to decrease forecasting confidence even more… Above is the latest run of the RPM forecast model, valid for Thursday morning. This model has no precipitation over Alabama. The upper level low is in the same place as other models, but there is no available moisture for snow across west or central Alabama.

The bottom line… Forecast models are in great agreement with the track of the upper level low and time frame, but the lack of or abundance of moisture is in question. Since lastnight, forecast models have really reduced the amount of available moisture for this storm system, which leads me to believe the risk of accumulating snow is unlikely on Thursday. While that’s the case now, upper level lows are very tricky and fast changes are possible. Even if the atmosphere was setup for a quick snow accumulation, warm surface temperatures and a wet ground would allow the snow to melt quickly. For all the snow fans out there, this just doesn’t look like our big event at this time.

I still think there’s a fair chance of seeing a few snow flakes Thursday morning and midday. The best chance of seeing any flakes will happen right under the core of the upper level low. At this time, models track the upper level low along I-20 from Jackson, MS to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Atlanta.

We will keep a close eye on this system incase moisture gets wrapped into the upper level low. Stay tuned for updates.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Ice Storm Just West of Alabama… River Flooding in Alabama… Tuesday Update 10:45pm

Good Tuesday morning! I’ve got some good news in terms of icing issues across our state. At this time, there are no problems with the roads across west and central Alabama. Freezing rain issues lastnight were minor for areas north of Fayette and Jasper. The big issues are over Mississippi, where an Ice Storm Warning is in place.

Our friends over the Mississippi River Delta are dealing with a cripling ice storm at this time, with ice accumulations of over 1/2 an inch in spots. Trees and powerlines are dealing with significant damage, with numerous power outages at this time. We are very fortunate in Alabama that the colder air just hasn’t made it into our state. While it is cold, it’s above the critical freezing point. That being said, it’s a cold and nasty day, with lots of rain and cold air.  Snow is falling over parts of Arkansas, where the cold air is deeper. The deep cold air will stay to the west of Alabama today…

Fortunately, our rain is not as heavy today, so that should prevent west and central Alabama from dealing with flash flooding. The rain is heavy enough to aggravate river flooding issues. There are numerous river flood warnings in west and central Alabama, so please use caution if you live close to creeks and rivers. Below is a detailed list of the river flood warnings, so take the time to read these and find your area…

…THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LOCUST FORK AT SAYRE…

RISES CONTINUE ON THE LOCUST FORK RIVER FOLLOWING RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT SAYRE PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN.

 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

…FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT… THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR

THE LOCUST FORK AT SAYRE.

* UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

* AT  9:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 25 FEET.

* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.7 FEET BY THIS

EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON .

* IMPACT…AT 25 FEET…FLOODING OF LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND

AGRICULTURAL LANDS ALONG THE LOCUST FORK OCCURS.

…THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST TUESDAY FOR

TUSCALOOSA AND PICKENS COUNTIES…

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING OF SOME ROADS IN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY. COMMERCE ROAD AT THE BIG CREEK BRIDGE WAS IMPASSABLE.

PORTIONS OF RIVERBEND ROAD AND SOUTH SANDY ROAD WERE ALSO COVERED BY WATER.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING.  LOW LYING AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO FLOOD.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE… ALICEVILLE…HOLT…NORTHPORT…  PICKENSVILLE…REFORM… TUSCALOOSA…AND COKER.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER…ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM AL HAS ISSUED A FLOOD

WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA… BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AT OLIVER LOCK AND DAM AFFECTING GREENE… HALE…MARENGO…SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES.

.HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS IS PRODUCING RISES ON THE BLACK WARRIOR RIVER…AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AT OLIVER LOCK AND DAM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN.

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM AL HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR

THE BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AT OLIVER LOCK AND DAM.

* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

* AT 7:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 127.9 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 129 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 131.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL  BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT…AT 132 FEET…FLOODING OF RURAL ROADS SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA OCCURS. AT 129 FEET…FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA OCCURS.

…THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM… RISES CONTINUE ON THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER FOLLOWING RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN. ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

…FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT… THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR

THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.

* UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

* AT  6:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 124.5 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 122 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 129.8 FEET BY   THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT…AT 128 FEET…CATTLE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND. FLOODING OF SOME CABINS AND CAMPS ALONG THE RIVER CAN BE EXPECTED.

…THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM…

RISES CONTINUE ON THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER FOLLOWING RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN. ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

…FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING… THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT GAINESVILLE LOCK AND DAM.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

* AT  8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 97.5 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 101 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING  AND  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 103.6 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACT…AT 101 FEET…FLOODING OF LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AND

WOODED LANDS IN THE AREA OCCURS.

…THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM…

RISES CONTINUE ON THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER FOLLOWING RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN.

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM.

* FROM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS  CANCELLED.

* AT  9:15 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 64.4 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 68 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 74.8 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS…AT 73 FEET…SOME CABINS AND TRAILERS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD…AS WELL AS SOME SECONDARY ROADWAYS….THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SUCARNOOCHEE RIVER AT LIVINGSTON…

.RISES CONTINUE ON THE SUCARNOOCHEE RIVER FOLLOWING RAINFALL DURING THE

PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT LIVINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN.

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR

THE SUCARNOOCHEE RIVER AT LIVINGSTON.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON…OR UNTIL THE WARNING

IS CANCELLED.

* AT 8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET.

* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT…AT 18 FEET…FLOODING OF FARMLANDS AROUND LIVINGSTON OCCURS AND CATTLE SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND….THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM AL HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA…

BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AT OLIVER LOCK AND DAM AFFECTING GREENE…HALE…MARENGO…SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES. HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS IS PRODUCING RISES ON THE BLACK WARRIOR RIVER…AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AT OLIVER LOCK AND DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN.

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM AL HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR

THE BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AT OLIVER LOCK AND DAM.

* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

* AT 7:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 127.9 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 129 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 131.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT…AT 132 FEET…FLOODING OF RURAL ROADS SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA OCCURS. AT 129 FEET…FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA OCCURS.

…THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM…RISES CONTINUE ON THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER FOLLOWING RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com