Tropical Depression Beryl Update – Monday 10 p.m.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

…BERYL REMAINS AN INLAND TROPICAL DEPRESSION…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 165 MI…260 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ENE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BERYL IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE OVER LAND.  AFTER MOVING BACK OVER WATER WEDNESDAY… REINTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES…IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.  BERYL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

Memorial Day Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:20 p.m.

 

Tonight a weak upper level trough approaches from the west as Beryl begins to turn back to the northeast. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the east associated with Beryl. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible across the north and west due to the approaching upper level shortwave trough from the west. So there is a slight chance for some rain tonight across the area.

Into the middle part of the week an upper level flow becomes more zonal across the southeastern U.S. several weak shortwaves will move trough this zonal flow and continue precipitation chances for much of the work week.

Thursday and Friday will bring our best rain chances this week. All the long range models are indicating a more robust upper level trough that will bring a front through Central Alabama sometime Friday into Friday night. The ECMWF is the fastest moving the front through early in the day Friday with the GFS being the slowest moving the front through late Friday night and the CMC is in between. The timing of the front will greatly impact the potential for strong to severe storms across the area. The faster ECMWF would limit the strong to severe weather across the area with the GFS solution being more favorable for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon. With this scenario still five days away too much uncertainty still exists with the evolution and progression of this system to be sure what we can expect.

The weather looks much more pleasant going into the weekend as surface high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will be at or below average for early June.

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Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Tropical Despression Beryl Update – Monday 1:30 p.m.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

…BERYL SOAKING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA…MORE
RAIN TO COME…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5
NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER EAST FO THE CENTER.  A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY…PARTICULARLY
IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A SUBSIDING STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE IS STILL CAUSING NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.