Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 9:15 p.m.

The moon will be 14 percent bigger and 30 percent brighter tonight than other full moons as it passes its closest point to earth in its orbit at 10:34 pm. Expectations are that most thunderstorms that do form should weaken by then with only scattered clouds around.

Tomorrow conditions look similar to today with the upper level wave across the mid-Mississippi River Valley moving closer to Central Alabama. Temperatures should warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The atmosphere will be rather unstable again with 1500-2500j/kg of surface based cape. Upper level flow and shear will again be weak. The mesoscale features will be the main focus for convection along boundaries. Due to the amount of instability present thunderstorms that due form will have the potential to be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

Into early next week moisture begins to increase throughout the low levels as boundary layer southerly flow increase in response to a low across the Midwest. A cold front will stretch down from the low into the southern plains. Showers and thunderstorm will again be possible with shortwave troughs ejecting out ahead of the main upper level trough. Moisture and instability will be in place again for thunderstorms to develop. The cold front will begin to nudge into the forecast area on Tuesday and will be the focus for convection with showers and thunderstorms possible again on Tuesday.

Precipitation chances will continue into mid-week as the cold front moves through the area on Wednesday. Best precipitation chances will be across southeastern portions of the area. Thursday should be a nice day with cooler temperatures and sunny skies. However, rain chances return quickly to the forecast next weekend as a closed low slowly approaches the southeast.

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Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Central Alabama Under Slight Risk of Severe Weather – Saturday 2:45 p.m.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Central Alabama under a Slight Risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening.

The latest water vapor imagery has a short wave trough entering the lower Mississippi Valley and this feature will slowly move northeastward. Although the wind fields are rather weak aloft, these upper and lower features will aide in focus/lift. The atmosphere over Central Alabama will become rather unstable this afternoon. Impressive mid level lapse rates will produce some moderate instability. This instability will have the potential of producing some strong updrafts/downdrafts. A limiting factor will be the lack of upper flow/bulk shear and overall mean relative humidity. Therefore, there will be a 15-35% chance for rain in Central Alabama this afternoon and expand the higher chance a bit farther south and west but due to the inverted v sounding and instability any storms that develop will have the potential to produce damaging straight line winds, large hail, and a brief heavy downpour. Temps look on target this afternoon with highs 86-91.

Join me tonight for the latest Home Team forecast tonight on WVUA News at 10.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather