Sub-tropical Storm Beryl Forms! Friday Update 10pm

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES AS WELL AS REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS COALESCED INTO A TIGHT…WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  AROUND 2200 UTC…THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS…SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE AROUND 1001 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME…THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A SUBTROPICAL ST2.5.  GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE… THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08…THOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE SLOWING.  A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS TEMPORARILY LEAVING BERYL IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER…GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT BERYL WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING BERYL INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S IN ABOUT 2 DAYS…WHERE IT SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME…ALL THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION…WITH THE CENTER LIKELY EMERGING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE PROXIMITY OF BERYL TO AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW MAY SLOW ITS ABILITY TO TRANSITON TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE COULD ALSO IMPEDE ITS INTENSIFICATION…ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE STORM.  ONE POSITIVE FACTOR COULD BETHE PASSAGE OF BERYL OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PROVIDE IT WITH A MOMENTARY BOOST. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Tropical Storm Beryl Is Forming Now – NHC Will Issue The Name Later Tonight… Friday Evening Update 9:20 PM

Good Friday evening to you! Tropical storm Beryl is forming now to the east of South Carolina. The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center will formally upgrade the tropical low to Beryl later tonight. This will likely remain a weak tropical storm as it makes a turn to the west southwest. Look for this system to come ashore over northern Florida or south Georgia sometime in the next 55 hours as a tropical storm. Beryl has a chance to move west into parts of Alabama. If the circulation can continue and the plume of tropical moisture reaches our area, look for an increase in showers and storms late Monday or on Tuesday. This will not be a damaging hurricane when it makes landfall. Water temperatures aren’t warm enough and the environment isn’t the best in the world for explosive development.

I’ll be out of town for the weekend, so Daniel Sparkman will continue to update you through Monday on the latest with Beryl and your forecast. Have a safe and fun Memorial Day Weekend! Below is the statement from the National Hurricane Center.

SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA…CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA…IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE…ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…NEAR 100 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT…BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Hot Weekend, Tropical Trouble, Cooler Weather Late Next Week? Friday Afternoon Forecast Update 5pm

Good Friday afternoon to you! It’s a very hot day in Alabama, with temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. A intense ridge has developed over the deep south. The ridge will continue to bring hot and humid weather to our area, but there are some changes early next week, as a tropical storm gets organized.

Hazy and hot conditions will continue through this evening. Look for temperatures to reach the upper 80s by 7pm and lower 80s at 10pm. Temperatures will continue to fall into the upper 60s late tonight. Skies will remain clear tonight and mostly sunny for our Memorial Day Weekend plans. If you have plans to the beach, pool, river or lake, weather conditions will be nearly perfect. If you have to work outdoors, try to keep cool and drink lots of water. Highs will reach the middle 90s on Saturday and Sunday. There is no risk of rain both day, but that starts to change on Monday. Don’t let the 20% chance of scattered storms on Monday change your plans. Most spots will remain rain free, but isolated afternoon storms are possible. The better chance of rain will arrive on Tuesday, as a tropical low moves closer to Alabama.

The tropical low developing east of Georgia could develop into Tropical Storm Beryl at any point today or tonight. Forecast data moves the low west southwest over the weekend and into the southeast. If you have plans along the southeast Atlantic coast, keep a close eye on this system. While a damaging hurricane won’t develop, a tropical storm could bring lots of rain and breezy conditions along the southeast coast. As the low moves west, it will bring a batch of tropial moisture and shower activity into Alabama. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Tuesday, but it won’t be a heavy, all day type of rain. Look for temperatures to back down into the lower 90s or upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A stronger storm system will move our way on Thursday. This will bring the risk of numerous thunderstorms at some point on Thursday. I wouldn’t be shocked if we have a severe storm or two with that system, but we’ve got to go through more forecast data before confidence will increase on Thursday’s system. There is some hint of cooler, refreshing air moving into our area on Friday.

The beach forecast is looking great over the next several days, as highs reach the upper 80s. Skies will remain mostly sunny today through Monday along the Alabama Gulf Coast. A passing shower or storm is possible, but the chance is low. Water temperatures in the Gulf Shores area have reached the lower 80s.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Storm Beryl Forming Now… Tropical Low Is Developing – Friday Afternoon Update 4pm

Good Friday afternoon to you! We’re watching a developing tropical low just east of the Southeastern US coastline. While it’s likely a tropical storm is forming now, we don’t expect a damaging hurricane. If anything, a weak tropical storm will develop and move into north Florida or Georgia late in the weekend or early next week. There’s a good chance this system will bring a few showers to our area on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Model data keeps the core of the low away from Alabama, so it’s unlikely that we get a heavy rain event in the area. At this point, look for isolated afternoon storms to develop on Monday around Alabama. Rain chances increase to 40% on Tuesday. A full forecast is coming out soon. Below is the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS…IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…80 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY…BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL…FLOODING…AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW…OR EARLIER IF
NECESSARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com