Storms Continue This Eve… Drier Tomorrow… Wedneday Forecast Update – 5pm

Good Wednesday afternoon! Much of Alabama has dealt with more showers and storms today, but unlike yesterday, storms have been more scattered today. As of 5pm, scattered to numerous storms are ongoing across the western half of Alabama and are pushing south to southeast. I expect storm coverage to thin out after midnight tonight, as drier air takes over from the north. Lows will fall into the lower 70s tonight, under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

Dewpoints will drop into the middle 60s on Thursday and Friday, which will cause humidity to drop into the comfortable range. With lower moisture levels, I expect more sun than clouds the little to no rain across our state. While a lone shower or storm is possible, most of Alabama will be rain free on Thursday and Friday. With the added sunshine, temperatures will get into the hot range both day. Look for highs to reach the lower 90s across much of the area. Thanks to dry air, temperatures will cool nicely Thursday night, with lows in the middle to upper 60s.

An upper air disturbance will move through on Saturday, which will bring the risk of scattered storms. I do not expect an all day rain on Saturday, but have the umbrella handy incase a storm moves over your area. Highs will remain in the upper 80s on Saturday, due to extra clouds. Rain chances will decrease into the low range on Sunday and very low range on Monday and Tuesday. Highs will return to the 90 degree mark on Sunday, with lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday.

Here’s the 5pm track of Tropical Storm Dorian. There’s a chance this system could impact the US sometime next week, but we’ve got lots of time to watch the system. Most storms at this Latitude typically turn out to sea before reaching the US, but an upper level ridge north of the system may move it into the US coastline. It’s too early to be specific, but we’ll keep you updated as new data comes in. Dorian will likely weaken a little in the next 24 to 48 hours, but the environment may become conducive for redevelopment over the weekend and early next week. There’s a chance it could become a hurricane, which means it needs watching…

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

Tropical Storm Dorian Forms… Wednesday Morning Update – 11am

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression # 4 into Tropical Storm Dorian this morning. The storm is gradually becoming better organized, but the environment isn’t favorable for this system to become a strong hurricane over the next few days. There’s some dry air near the center, wind shear will be increasing and water temperatures are rather cool in that part of the Atlantic. Dorian has winds of 50 mph, as it tracks west northwest at 21mph. There’s a good chance this system will weaken as it encounters stronger shear in a few days… We’ll keep a close eye on it, but Dorian is way out there. We’ve got lots of time before it gets anywhere near the US, if it even survives at all. Here’s a discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 38-KT ASCAT SURFACE WIND AT 1111Z… AND VARIOUS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO…WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO…THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW WHILE DORIAN REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER… DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD…DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C SSTS…WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH…AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON…THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS.  AFTER THAT…THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER BOTH WARMER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR…SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD STEADY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY…BUT THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.3N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.4N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.1N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

 

Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Atlantic – Wednesday 4 a.m.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013

500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

 

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…13.9N 28.1W

ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE

 

NEXT ADVISORY

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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.