Thursday Afternoon Update – 2:30 p.m.

It’s a sunny afternoon across West Alabama today, however, it’s rather chilly! Temperatures are in the upper 40s around the whole area.
This morning, lows started out int he upper 20s and lower 30s.

Here’s a look at some area lows:

• Hamilton – 29
• Jasper – 30
• Centreville – 33
• Tuscaloosa – 33
• Demopolis – 34
• Selma – 38

Tonight, we’ll see temperatures lower than those numbers, I’m expecting upper 20s area-wide.

Tomorrow, we’ll see highs right around 50 with plenty of sunshine. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon and early evening.

Saturday looks to be nice, we’ll start off cold in the morning, in the upper 20s, then we’ll warm up to 55 in the afternoon.

Sunday looks to be even better, with highs near 60! Clouds will start to move in as we go through the day Sunday.

Sunday night, there’s a chance for rain as a vigorous Gulf low develops southwest of us. This storm is going to bring us rain and probably some snow before all is said and done.

Cold air will be in place, and with overriding moisture from this storm system, we could see some snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Right now, it’s too early to tell how much snow, if any, we will see here in West Alabama. But, confidence is growing that we will see some wintry weather to start off the first week of February.

Here’s what I’m thinking about this system… here in West Alabama, we will start with rain showers late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Monday afternoon, we’ll start to see a change over to snow. Monday night, snow will taper off. Tuesday, we’ll see some flurries.

As this system moves across the panhandle of Florida, it will then race northward, causing a big nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic and New England states next week.

Again, this is a changing situation… so please check the blog for updates and also catch our forecast on the news at 4, 5, 6 and 10 p.m.

Looking past Monday and Tuesday, we’ll be cool with mostly sunny skies for Wednesday and Thursday.

I’ll be in today and tomorrow for Wes with West Alabama’s forecast.

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather

Winter Weather Thoughts for Monday; Posted at 1:00 p.m.

There are certainly some busy days ahead in the weather center, with the thoughts of a winter storm somewhere in the south. Wes will have more on this later this afternoon, but I wanted to throw some thoughts around as well. A deep trough will dig out into the heartland of the nation on Sunday and move into the southeast. This will spin up a surface low somewhere over the western Gulf of Mexico or south Texas. While no one knows what’s going to happen at this point, the models have been surprisingly consistent. This is the first time this season, where the Canadian, GFS and the European models have been this consistent with the track and intensity of a storm system several days out. We, as forecasters must keep in mind that forecasting winter weather is very difficult to do in the south, but we also can’t ignore the model consistency. Somewhere in the deep south will see heavy amounts of snow. Where will that happen? That is the million dollar question.

The current look suggest that rain will begin late Sunday afternoon or during the overnight hours. As cold air filters in from the north, we could have rain change to snow across central Alabama. The low will move ashore over the Florida Peninsula, which will place all of north and central Alabama on the cold side of the low. As the area of low pressure rapidly deepens and moves into southern Georgia, very cold air will move into our area. We’ll have a gusty wind, and snow coming to an end over Alabama late Monday night and early on Tuesday. Again, this will change over the next few days. I’m just telling you the current look. We will keep you updated through out the week and the weekend as the system moves in. I can tell you that a band of heavy snow will develop and move across either Alabama or Tennessee. This depends on the track and intensity of the low. It could be Nashville, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa or Demopolis that gets the heavy snow. I’ll let you know that on Saturday. Usually, this type of set up will include a 50 – 70 mile wide band of accumulating snow. South of that will be rain and north of that will be flurries. Last January, 4 – 5 inches of snow fell across Marengo County, while it was rain south of there and a dusting in Tuscaloosa. That’s one reason forecasting winter weather is so hard.

Again, Wes will have a discussion on here later this afternoon, and I will be in on Saturday, with the full details on the latest with this winter weather threat. This will change over the next few days, so it is very important that you watch out newscast and keep an eye on the blog page. Have a great Thursday!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor