Hot Weekend Ahead… Thursday Forecast Update – 3:45pm

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Good Thursday afternoon! As of 3:45pm, areas along and south of I-20 are dealing with lots of scattered storms. These storms are moving southeast, along a weak cold front. Slightly drier air is moving in from the north, so the risk of scattered storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast this evening. The risk of rain has now ended for areas along and north of I-20.

Friday through the weekend is looking hot and mostly dry. I can’t rule out a shower or storm south of I-20 over the weekend, but the risk of rain is low. Expect highs in the lower 90s this weekend, with fairly humid conditions. Since dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, you will notice a slight mugginess.  Lows will start off in the upper 60s Saturday morning, then lower 70s Sunday morning.

Our next cold front is set to arrive early on Monday. Model data has backed off a tad with the really cool air, but I still expect drier air and slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will top out in the middle 80s, with lows in the middle 60s. Humidity will feel much lower both days. Expect some scattered storms ahead of the front on Monday, especially along and south of I-20.

Tropical Depression # 2 has died in the Atlantic. With a harsh environment for tropical development at this time, it is unlikely it has a chance to redevelop…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Scattered Storms, Then Dry…. Wednesday Forecast Update – 3:30pm

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Good Wednesday afternoon! As of 3:30pm, there are a few scattered storms tracking across Alabama. These storms won’t last long in one spot, and many of you will not get rain at your house today. Scattered downpours will remain possible through 10pm this evening. I can’t rule out a stray storm after 10pm, as a weak cold front approaches Alabama.

Scattered storms will become likely on Thursday, as the weak cold front passes through Alabama. Expect more clouds than sun on Thursday, with a 60% risk of rain at your house. Storms may last an hour or two in one spot before moving on. The risk of severe weather is very low tomorrow, but I can’t rule out a pulse severe storm somewhere across Alabama on Thursday.

Dry air will take over on Friday and Saturday, with slightly lower humidity values. Temperatures will remain hot over the weekend, with highs in the lower 90s. Skies will remain mostly sunny on Friday and Saturday. Moisture will return on Sunday, with a passing storm or two in the forecast.

Monday will bring yet another cold front, with the risk of scattered showers and storms ahead of the front. I don’t expect an all day type of rain on Monday, but a few storms are likely. This next front will likely bring some cooler air with is, as highs drop into the middle 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Low may make a run for 60 degrees Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning, with some upper 50s north of I-20. This is unusual for this time of the year…

Tropical Depression # 2 has died in the Atlantic. With a harsh environment for tropical development at this time, it is unlikely it has a chance to redevelop…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Hot Days… Scattered Storms… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4pm

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Good Tuesday afternoon! As of 4pm, there are lots of small storms tracking across Alabama. These storms are moving west, as a weak upper level low tracks westward across south Alabama. While there’s a fairly good chance you’ll get a downpour in your area this evening, any storms in one spot won’t last long. If you have plans outdoors this evening, take the umbrella with you to be safe.

Conditions remain mild and muggy for Wednesday and Thursday, but changes are likely as a weak cold front arrives on Thursday. A few scattered afternoon storms are possible on Wednesday, but rain chances are a bit higher on Thursday, as lift arrives. Just like today, it will not rain all day on Thursday and some areas will not get rain.

Friday through Sunday, drier air takes over, which will reduce the risk of rain to only 10% or 20%. Most of the area will remain hot and dry all weekend.

A strong cold front will arrive on Monday, which will once again enhance the risk of rain. Storms will become very much possible on Monday, but it will not rain all day. Forecast models are yet again indicating a nice push of cooler and drier air by Monday night and on Tuesday. Since this is still several days out, we may have to make changes to the forecast. Some models suggest temperatures could get back into the 50s Monday night or Tuesday night. This is very rare for this time of the year, and we continue to get an occasional push of cooler air this summer. This has been a unique summer so far, and we’re fortunate not to have dealt with a big heat wave so far.

In the Tropics, we now have Tropical Depression # 2 in the central Atlantic. This system could become a tropical storm, but it is not expected to impact the US. A harsh environment ahead of the low will likely kill it by late this week.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Scattered Storms… Hot… Monday Forecast Update – 4pm

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Good Monday afternoon! Our local weather has turned out fairly hot this afternoon, but temperatures are still around average for this time of the year. Fortunately, we haven’t experienced any major heat waves so far this season, and I don’t see any signs of significant heat in our near future. If you have plans outdoor this evening, expect muggy conditions, with a small chance of a passing storm. The risk of rain for today is low, but that will change a bit tomorrow, as a weak area of low pressure moves over the area. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70s.

Expect a fairly good chance of scattered storms on Tuesday, but it will not rain all day. Storms will be scattered, so some areas will get a downpour, while others don’t get a drop. There could be a few storms in the morning, but the best rain chances will occur after lunch on Tuesday. We’ll go mainly dry and hot on Wednesday, with a high in the lower 90s.

A weak cold front will move into Alabama on Thursday and early Friday. This will bring a good chance of scattered storms to Alabama, but I don’t expect an all day type of rain event. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90 on Thursday and Friday. Most of Friday looks dry, as slightly drier air moves into the area. Expect mainly dry conditions over the weekend, but a passing storm can’t be ruled out. Rain chances will increase again by Sunday night and on Monday…

In the Tropics, we now have Tropical Depression # 2 in the central Atlantic. This system could become a tropical storm, but it is not expected to impact the US. A harsh environment ahead of the low will likely kill it by late this week.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Tropical Depression 2 Forms in Central Atlantic… Monday Update 3:30pm

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and are initiating advisories at this time.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass. The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72 hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given much weight in the official forecast.

The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

Watching Tropics… Bertha Could Be Forming… Monday Update – 10:45am

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We’re watching a very small area of low pressure in the central Atlantic at this hour. The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of development to 50% within the next 48 hours, as the system track west or west northwest at 15 to 20mph. The good news… While there’s a good chance it could develop into a tropical storm soon, the environment ahead of the system isn’t conducive for tropical development. It could reach tropical storm status, but then die out as it moves into a harsh environment in the next few days.  Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours. Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time however, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

Richard Scott

Chief Meteorologist

 

The Summer Heat Returns… Sunday Forecast Update — 8:00pm

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Good Sunday to you! Much of last week we enjoyed a break from the summer weather, but the dog days of summer are back this week.

Tonight we’ll see mostly clear skies and temperatures in the upper 60s; however, some patchy fog will develop across the area as the ground dries out from the rain we saw last week. The fog will hang around into the morning hours, so take care on the Monday morning commute with the patchy fog. By late morning the fog will mix out and we’ll have mostly sunny skies to start the day. Some fair weather cumulus clouds will develop as we head into the lunch hour as temperatures warm nicely into the mid-80s for lunch. A couple of those clouds will gain strength and turn into thunderstorms during the afternoon with highs right around the 90 degree mark. The best chances for storms Monday afternoon will be south and east of I20/59, but even in West Central Alabama there could be a storm or two. As the storms die down Monday evening the clouds will clear out leaving us mostly dry and partly clear overnight Monday night. Patchy fog could be a problem again tomorrow night where a storm develops Monday afternoon.

The summer time heat in the low 90s and pop up thunderstorms will be firmly in place this week. Each afternoon, someone will could be caught in a downpour, but the week will not be a wash out. A weak high pressure expected to develop off the west coast of Florida and will pump warm, moist air north into Alabama and Mississippi this week. The moisture from the Gulf will help instigate the storms each afternoon. Another low pressure up in the Great Lakes could bring some extra forcing and lift for late in the week, increasing the coverage of the storms across Alabama.

Similar rain chances and temperatures for the weekend, although there is a possibility of another system swinging through early next week. We’ll keep eye on the rain chances and how the system will affect us here in Alabama.

If you have any pictures showing what the weather is doing and the sky looks like around you, send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank

WVUA Staff Meteorologist

Twitter:  @crankyweather

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