Nice Fall Weather Continues… Warmer Weekend… Wednesday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Warnings_915

Good Wednesday afternoon! After a chilly start to the day, conditions really turned out nice again this afternoon. Temperatures have recovered nicely into the lower 70s as of 4pm, but temperatures will cool quickly after sunset. Look for clear skies tonight, with temperatures dropping into the 50s by 7pm, and 40s after 10pm. Lows tonight will reach the lower 40s for many, with a few upper 30s north of I-20.

Thursday and Friday will be absolutely gorgeous weather days, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows will remain in the chilly 40s at night. Skies remain mostly sunny over the next few days, as a weak area of high pressure moves across the area. There is no risk of rain over the next 5 days. Temperatures will start to warm a bit by the weekend, with highs returning into the upper 70s. A few spots could reach 80 this weekend, under a sunny sky.

The Friday night football forecast is looking great, with temperatures dropping into the 50s during the local high school games. Expect clear skies and calm winds for the games…

We’re watching tropical depression # 9 in the Bay of Campeche at this hour. Good news… the system remains weak and models keep it well away from Alabama’s Gulf Coast. I don’t expect any issues out of this feature, but we will keep an eye on the tropics as we gradually end the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season in about a month.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

SPC’s Severe Weather Outlooks Change Today! Wednesday Update – 3:45pm #alwx

Warnings_913

Good Wednesday afternoon! First off, please note, this is not a current severe weather risk for our area… These two images serve as an example only.

The Storm Prediction Center has now changed the convective outlooks to include more risk levels. The image above shows the old SPC convective outlooks of slight, moderate and high. Each risk would indicate a level of severity a particular event would produce. Moderate and high risks are understood pretty well by the public, so SPC did not change the moderate and high risk category. The big struggle comes from explaining the slight risk to the average viewer.

When looking at a severe weather event, a slight risk can mean a lot of things from a very minor event to a significant event. If an event were to include a slight risk of severe weather, most people would take that to be no big deal. On some slight risk days, we can see multiple tornadoes or large hail and or damaging winds. Or, on some slight risk days, maybe one spin-up tornado develops or one spot gets some hail and or wind.Warnings_914

The SPC has broke the slight risk up into 3 levels now. Check the image above for the new outlook. Notice, the moderate and high risk stay the same, but we’ve added a marginal risk and an enhanced risk to the map. The marginal risk includes the very low end version of a slight risk. On days where there could be some isolated severe weather, but it’s not expected to be a significant event. To go higher on the scale, you still have a standard slight risk, where some severe weather is expected, but not a widespread outbreak type of day. Even higher, you’ve now got an enhanced risk of severe weather. This means, the risk is serious, and needs to be watched very carefully. On an enhanced severe weather risk day, the threats may include tornadoes, and or damaging winds and or large hail.

Here’s the exact breakdown from SPC in terms of the probably of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point:

b. Severe Category 1 – Marginal
– 2% tornado probability, or
– 5% severe hail or severe wind probability.

c. Severe Category 2 – Slight
– 5% tornado probability, or
– 15% severe hail or severe wind probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or wind gusts 75 mph or greater.

d. Severe Category 3 – Enhanced
– 10% tornado probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 15% tornado probability, or
– 30% severe hail or severe wind probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
– 45% probability of severe hail or wind.

e. Severe Category 4 – Moderate
– 15% tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 30% tornado probability, or
– 45% severe wind probability AND 10% or greater
probability of a wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
– 45% severe hail probability AND 10% or greater
probability of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
– 60% severe wind probability, or
– 60% severe hail probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter.

f. Severe Category 5 – High
– 30% tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 45% or greater tornado probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 60% severe wind probability AND a 10% or greater
probability of a wind gust 75 mph or greater.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

Tropical Depression # 9 Has Formed in the Bay of Campeche… Tuesday Eve Update – 10pm #alwx

123

Good Tuesday evening! We now have newly formed Tropical Depression # 9. This system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow, as it tracks east. The good news is this system will not impact our local weather. Here’s the discussion from the National Hurricane Center below:

AT 1000 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

Awesome Weather Continues… Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Sevenday_640

Good Tuesday afternoon! It’s another nice Fall day across Alabama, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s this afternoon. Temperatures will drop a little tomorrow and Thursday, due to a weak cold front passage. Expect highs to reach the lower 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, with lows in the lower 40s at night. If you have plans outdoors this evening or tonight, expect clear skies and cool conditions. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s for lows tonight, with a light to calm wind.

A north breeze will take over on Wednesday, but it’s not going to be a windy day. The light breeze will only help to reinforce the cooler air already present in our area. Again, highs will top out in the lower 70s both Wednesday and Thursday. Expect a good supply of sun for the rest of the week and over the weekend.

The Friday night football forecast is looking great, with temperatures dropping into the 50s during the local high school games. Expect clear skies and calm winds for the games…

We’re watching an area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This feature is moving east and could become a weak tropical system in the next day or two. Most models keep this feature weak, so we’re not overly concerned about a major storm developing out of this, however, we will be watching it carefully. Fortunately, all models keep it away from Alabama.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

Possible Tropical Formation in Bay of Campeche… No U.S. Impact Expected – Tuesday Update 4pm #alwx

tropics

The image above is a map from the National Hurricane Center. The potential tropical system is headed east instead of north, so it will stay out of our area. Most forecasts do not predict strong development, so it should not become a major storm, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well-defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for further development by tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued with short notice.

sattrop

The satellite image above shows where the storm is now. You can see the storm developing just west of the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is not very well organized at this time, but it should slowly get a little better organized over the next day or two as it moves east.

Source: The National Hurricane Center

Caitlin Golden

WVUA Weather Intern

Wonderful Fall Weather Continues! Nearly Perfect Weather Ahead… Monday Forecast Update – 3:15pm #alwx

Sevenday_640

Good Monday afternoon! It has been a beautiful start to our work week, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s. After a cool start to the day, dry and clear air heated rather quickly. Most areas started off in the 40s at sunrise, then reached the lower to middle 70s during the afternoon hours. With a general trough stuck across the east, we will continue to feel the nice conditions for the rest of the week and over the weekend. A weak disturbance will send a weak cold front into Alabama on Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s on Tuesday, with a good supply of sun. With very dry air in place, I don’t expect any rain with this front. The only change you’ll notice is a slight drop in temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.

Highs will top out in the lower 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, with sunny skies. Overnight lows will remain chilly, with most areas reaching the upper 40s Tuesday night and lower to middle 40s Wednesday night and Thursday night. Dry air will remain in place through the weekend, with no risk of rain or any widespread clouds. Highs will slowly warm into the middle 70s on Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday. Temperatures will remain chilly at night.

We’re watching a disturbance in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. There is a decent chance it will become a weak tropical storm over the next few days, as it tracks east northeast very slowly. No models indicate a northward turn, as the steering currents will prevent this feature from getting close to Alabama. We will remain well north of the system. It’s unlikely that it becomes well organized; in-fact, most models only develop it into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm in the next 3 to 4 days.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

Sunny and Dry Week Ahead… Sunday Forecast Update — 7:30pm

Sevenday

Good Sunday evening to you! Despite the sunshine this afternoon, temperatures were a little cooler today with a high of only 73°. We will be a bit warmer to start the work week ahead.

Tonight we should reach a chilly low of 45° with calm winds and mostly clear skies. A few more clouds will return for the day on Monday as we warm up to the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Those mid-level clouds will hang around through Monday night into Tuesday before clearing out Tuesday evening. Temperatures on Tuesday will be on the warm side in the mid-upper 70s.

The remainder of this week the weather should remain serene with mostly sunny skies and with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. A few clouds return as we head into the weekend; however the sunshine and autumn weather is in place for the foreseeable future.

In the tropics Hurricane Gonzalo has moved up to the north Atlantic and has become extra-tropical after impacting with Bermuda.  A couple of spots in the tropics are trying to become organized and develop into systems, one is well out in the Atlantic near the coast of Africa, and another is currently centered on the coast of Mexico between Tampico and the Yucatan Peninsula. We will continue to keep an eye on these spots to see if they develop and threaten the U.S. in any way over the next week or so.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank

WVUA Staff Meteorologist

Twitter: crankyweather

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