November 21, 2014 Leave a comment
Good Friday to you! As of noon, not much has changed with our thinking of the severe weather setup on Sunday. A strong storm system will pass through the area during the day on Sunday, bringing a good chance of rain, with a risk of a few severe storms south of I-20. The map above shows where the best chance of isolated severe storms will become possible. Areas in a line from near Eutaw to Moundville to Centreville to Alexander City and points south is in that zone where there will be enough instability, lift and shear to cause some issues. Areas near Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston and points north should be stable enough to prevent issues. As instability rises in these areas later in the day, the best lift and shear will have passed northeast of our area. That’s a good thing because we don’t want to see that perfect mix of unstable air, wind shear and lift across the area!
What to expect: Rain and storms will lift into the area from the southwest late Saturday night. At this point, there will be no suface based instability, so severe weather is not expected. As a warm front lifts northward across the area, unstable air will quickly move into our southern counties, south of I-20. There will be enough wind shear and lift at that time to produce the risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. As instability continues to move north, wind shear and lift will decrease across our area, so the risk of severe storms quickly diminishes by early afternoon.
Please keep an eye on this system because it is a close call to being a higher issues than advertised. Any change in instability could cause the risk to increase or decrease across the area. Keep checking back with us…
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist