Beneficial Rain for Labor Day Weekend… Friday Forecast Update — 4:30pm

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Good Friday evening to you! Another hot and mostly dry week is behind us, and for most, a three day Labor Day weekend is on hand!

For tonight, we will see slowly increasing cloud cover across the state ahead of a line of energy that will spark thunderstorms tomorrow morning in Louisiana and Arkansas before moving east across Mississippi and into Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. Lows for Friday night will be just a touch warmer in the low 70s thanks to mostly cloudy skies. 

Mostly cloudy skies will remain for the first half of the weekend with those storms moving through Saturday afternoon and evening. There appears to be a good shot of much needed rain out of these storms, although at times the downpours could be quite heavy. High temperatures on Saturday will be cooler with the extra cloud cover in the upper 80s.

Sunday will see mostly cloudy skies once again with some more scattered storms during the day; although with slightly less widespread coverage across the state, some people may not see a storm at their house. Highs for the day on Sunday will be right around that 90 degree mark.

Labor Day Monday looks to be the driest day of the weekend which is good news for many. There will still be a chance for some storms across the area on Monday afternoon, so keep an eye on the skies as you go about your cook outs, picnics, and other plans for your Labor Day.

The 4 day work week next week will be warm and mostly dry like this week with highs in the mid 90s and a couple stray storms popping up each afternoon.

As for the Tropics, Cristobal has officially become an extra-tropical storm moving north toward Iceland; however there is a cluster of storms that are being monitors in the southern Caribbean which have potential to slowly develop over the next 5 days. This cluster of storms will move northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula, and into the southwestern Gulf by early next week. As the weekend progresses, we will be better able to assess where this cluster may go, and whether or not it will develop into a tropical system.

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Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank

WVUA Staff Meteorologist

Twitter: crankyweather

Scattered Weekend Storms Likely… Thursday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx

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Good Thursday afternoon! We’ve had another incredibly dry day across Alabama today, with dewpoints in the lower 50s! As dewpoints rise tomorrow and over the weekend, expect a return of the humidity. An upper air trough axis will be moving into Alabama over the holiday weekend, which will provide lift for scattered storms on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The higher rain chances will occur on Saturday and Sunday, but I don’t expect an all day type of rain event. If you have an outdoor event planned this weekend, keep the umbrella handy. There could be a storm in your area at any time during the day or night. There will be large breaks between storms, so again, I don’t expect it to rain non-stop all weekend.

Friday will remain hot and mainly dry. While I can’t rule out a shower or storm, the risk of rain at your house is low. Highs will approach the middle 90s on Friday. Temperatures will come down some over the weekend, due to an increase in clouds and scattered rain. Expect highs in the upper 80s over the weekend, with lows in the lower 70s. The upper air ridge will gradually build back into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, which means hotter temperatures and drier conditions.

If you have a holiday beach trip planned for Labor Day Weekend, expect a mix of sun and clouds, with the risk of a few scattered storms at any time. I don’t expect an all day type of rain at the beach, but there’s a good chance you’ll get a downpour or two while there. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with lows in the 70s.

Tomorrow marks the anniversary of the Hurricane Katrina disaster along the central Gulf Coast. Here’s a post from earlier on the storm: http://sky7weather.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/looking-back-at-the-hurricane-katrina-disaster-of-2005-thursday-update-1pm-alwx/

The tropics are still fairly active, with hurricane Cristobal in the north Atlantic and a couple of tropical waves. One tropical wave is moving into Texas now, so development will not occur, as it moves into land this evening and tonight. South Texas could really use the rain off this feature! A second tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is moving west and will likely move into central America sometime late in the weekend or very early next week. Some models try to move the feature into the far southwest Gulf next week, but US impacts are very unlikely. A 3rd tropical wave on the African coast is tracking west and may become a depression or storm in the next 3 to 5 days, but it’s far too early to know if this will impact the US. At this time, there is nothing tropical threatening the lower 48, which is great news!

 

Alabama takes on West Virginia in Atlanta on Saturday, with a 2:30pm kickoff. Since the game will be inside the Georgia Dome, conditions will be comfortable during the game. If you are traveling to or from the game, there will be a few scattered storms nearby. Outside temperatures will top out in the upper 80s, while it will be in the 70s inside the air conditioned dome… 

Auburn is playing Arkansas in Auburn on Saturday, with a 3pm kickoff. Expect the risk of scattered storms during the game, with temperatures in the low to middle 80s. While there is a chance the rain may miss the game-time, have the rain gear handy incase a storm passes over the stadium!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Looking Back at the Hurricane Katrina Disaster of 2005… Thursday Update – 1pm #alwx

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It was this day 9 years ago, when we were getting ready for one of the worst US Natural Disasters to occur. On this day, Hurricane Katrina was turning northwest, in the direction of Louisiana and Mississippi. The official landfall would occur early the next morning in southeast Louisiana and again on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. On the morning prior to landfall, the National Weather Service issued a statement unlike one I’ve ever seen. This statement is chilling, but according to the data, accurate…

“””URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH… RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

 THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!””””

At 6:10am, on August 29, 2005, the eye of hurricane Katrina had made it’s first northern Gulf Coast landfall along the southeastern tip of Louisiana. It would then make a second landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast a few hours later, as it tracked north. There were actually 3 landfalls in the US with Katrina, with the first happening in southeast Florida, as the storm was just starting to get organized. Hurricane Katrina was a monster as it tracked across the gulf. The setup was perfect for this wild storm, due to extremely warm gulf water temperatures, no wind shear, no nearby dry air and general rising motion in the tropics.

The storm tracked around a ridge of high pressure, located from Bermuda to Georgia. There was a weakness in the ridge over the northern Gulf Coast, which caused the storm to turn north and impact our area, as well as the surrounding states.

What made Katrina such a mess for so many was her size. Katrina was an enormous storm… Small hurricanes typically die out quickly at landfall and the core of the strong winds and surge only affect a small area. With Katrina’s enormous size, the storm took a long time to weaken over land and the damaging winds and surge extended well out from the center. There was a storm surge in Gulf Shores similar to the one with Hurricane Ivan. Katrina made landfall over 100 miles away from Gulf Shores! The damaging winds extended hundreds of miles inland, which caused major issues, even across Alabama.

Below is a great article from the National Weather Service in Birmingham, which includes the local impacts from Katrina in west and central Alabama. Check it out!

Hurricane Katrina formed near Long Island in the Bahamas on the afternoon of August 23rd, 2005. Katrina reached hurricane strength just before making landfall north of Miami, Florida on the evening on August 25th, 2005. Katrina produced 10 to 20 inches of rain, flooding, tornadoes, and injuries across far southern Florida.

Katrina moved southwestward across the extreme southern tip of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Katrina reached category five in the central Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds around 175 mph. This occurred on Sunday August 28th, 2005. Katrina then turned on a northward path.

Hurricane Katrina made landfall along the Gulf Coast early Monday morning August 29th, 2005 as a large category four hurricane. Sustained winds were around 145 mph in Southeast Louisiana. Katrina continued northward, affecting areas from near New Orleans, Louisiana to near Mobile, Alabama. Devastating damage occurred along the Gulf Coast. Katrina will most likely go down as one of the worst natural disasters in United States history.

Katrina weakened to a tropical storm Monday evening August 29th, 2005 northwest of Meridian, Mississippi. Katrina continued to move northward across far eastern Mississippi overnight, then into Tennessee Tuesday morning. Katrina finally lost its tropical characteristics as it merged with a cold front over northern Pennsylvania on August 31st, 2005.

Katrina produced local effects that were widespread across Central Alabama. Numerous trees and power lines were downed, minor to major structural damage occurred, and power outages were widespread. Many locations remained without power for a week or more. Storm damage effects across parts of West Central Alabama were worse than what was sustained during Hurricane Ivan in 2004.

Four tornadoes occurred across Central Alabama, two F0s and two F1s.  Here is the information on those tornadoes.

Storm total rain amounts of 1 inch or less were measured in the northeast and east central portions of Central Alabama. This was due to dry air wrapping into the circulation Katrina and diminishing the rain area. Rain totals of 1 to 2 inches were common over the southeast sections. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches occurred over much of West Alabama, west of interstate 65. Some locations received 5 to 6 inch amounts in the northwest sections, specifically in Lamar and Marion Counties.

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 The highest sustained winds from Katrina ranged from 25 mph along the Georgia state line to around 65 mph along the Mississippi state line. Peak wind gusts generally ranged from around 35 mph to near 80 mph, with the highest gusts occurring across West Central Alabama and in the highest elevations.

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Here are some peak wind gusts and storm total rainfall amounts associated with Hurricane Katrina.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Storms Return This Weekend… Thursday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

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Good Wednesday afternoon! The stretch of dry weather continues across Alabama today, with lots of sun and hot temperatures. Dewpoints are low across Alabama, so the heat hasn’t been all that bad, but humidity will be on an increase by Friday and Saturday. If you have plans outdoors this evening, conditions will feel nice after sunset, with temperatures falling into the middle 70s at 10pm and upper 60s after midnight. Humidity will remain low on Thursday, but a south wind will develop on Friday, bringing the moisture back into the area. I expect our area to remain dry through Friday, with highs in the lower to middle 90s.

An upper air trough will swing through Alabama over the holiday weekend, bringing a good chance of occasional showers and storms to the state. While it won’t rain all day or night, have the umbrella handy. I expect a good coverage of scattered showers and storms at any time this weekend. Humidity levels will become much higher over the weekend, so you will notice the mugginess return! The risk of rain will gradually drop on Labor day into the 40% range. While I expect scattered storms, most of Monday should be dry, and some areas may not get rain on Monday. 

A summer ridge builds back into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, reducing rain chances to 20%. Temperatures will return into the lower or middle 90s… 

In the tropics… We still have Hurricane Cristobal, with winds of 75mph. Cristobal is moving north northeast at 15mph, with no impacts expected in the US, other than an increase in wave heights along the Atlantic seaboard coastline… There’s also a weak tropical wave near the Texas coast at this hour. Development is not expected, as the system moves inland tomorrow, and the environment around it is not very favorable for development. Another tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles may become a tropical depression or storm in about 3 to 5 days, as it moves towards central America. US impacts aren’t expected at this time. Finally, a tropical wave coming off the African coast could become a tropical storm in the next 3 to 5 days, but there is a harsh environment ahead of that feature as well. US impacts are unlikely at this time, but we’ll keep an eye on it… 

Alabama takes on West Virginia in Atlanta on Saturday, with a 2:30pm kickoff. Since the game will be inside the Georgia Dome, conditions will be comfortable during the game. If you are traveling to or from the game, there will be a few scattered storms nearby. Outside temperatures will top out in the upper 80s, while it will be in the 70s inside the air conditioned dome… 

Auburn is playing Arkansas in Auburn on Saturday, with a 3pm kickoff. Expect the risk of scattered storms during the game, with temperatures in the low to middle 80s. While there is a chance the rain may miss the game-time, have the rain gear handy incase a storm passes over the stadium!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Weak Tropical Low Heading for Texas… Wednesday Update – 8:30am #alwx

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Good morning! We’ve been watching the stationary front in the Gulf over the past couple of days, and now we have a low spinning up in the western Gulf of Mexico along the front. Keep in mind, there is lots of dry air and some wind shear over this part of the Gulf, so rapid development will not occur. There is a small chance the ragged tropical low you see near the Texas coast could become a tropical depression or very weak tropical storm before moving into south Texas tomorrow. More than likely, this system will remain just a weak area of low pressure. It will not impact Alabama’s Gulf Coast, as it is tracking west.  

This system will help to bring some much needed rain to south and central Texas over the next few days!

As for the rest of the tropics.. We’ve still got Hurricane Cristobal in the western Atlantic, spinning well to the west of Bermuda and well to the east of the US. Cristobal will remain in the open waters of the Atlantic, with no impact to land other than some larger waves. 

There is a tropical wave nearing the Lesser Antilles, but it is fighting dry air at the moment. Some models develop this into a tropical system in 5 to 6 days, but it’s still unclear where it will end up… We’ve got time to watch it… 

Finally, there is another tropical wave coming off the African coastline. This could become a tropical storm in the next 5 days, as it tracks west, but it is way too early to know where that feature will go. With lots of dry air acorss the central Atlantic, I wouldn’t expect it to become that well organized over the next 5 days…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Looking Back at Hurricane Andrew… The Louisiana Landfall… Tuesday Update 10:30pm #alwx

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On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew devastated south Florida as a category 5 hurricane. There’s a blog post on the Florida landfall of Hurricane Andrew a few posts back… Many people forgot about the second landfall of Hurricane Andrew across the Louisiana coastline, as a major hurricane. Here’s a great post from NOAA on the Louisiana landfall: 

After hitting Florida, Andrew moved across the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall about 23 miles west-southwest of Morgan City in south-central Louisiana; at landfall, the maximum sustained winds were 115 mph. As it moved ashore, the hurricane produced storm tides of at least 8ft, causing flooding along the coast from Vermilion Bay to Lake Borgne. River flooding was also reported, with the Tangipahoa River in Robert cresting at 3.8ft above flood stage. Before making landfall, Andrew spawned an F3 tornado in Laplace, which killed two people and injuring 32. The tornado was on the ground for about 10 minutes, during which it damaged or destroyed 163 structures, leaving 60 families homeless. Collectively, 14 tornadoes were reported in the parishes of Ascension, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, and Avoyelles, as well as in Baton Rouge. Heavy rains accompanied the storm’s passage through the state, peaking at 11.02 inches in Robert. Elsewhere in the state, 9 fatalities and at least 75 injuries were reported. Offshore Louisiana, a group of six fishermen from Alabama perished due to drowning.

Along the Louisiana coastline, damage largely resembled that of a Category 2 hurricane. Damage was heaviest in St. Mary Parish, about 32 miles east of where Andrew made landfall. Hurricane-force winds damaged roofs, although most homes fared well during the storm, with the main exception being large trees falling onto houses. In Cypremort Point State Park, where winds were estimated at 90 mph, several mobile homes were destroyed. Houses in the Morgan City, Patterson, and Berwick areas suffered minor damage, mainly limited to shingles being torn off; some large trees fell, causing severe damage to mobile homes. Similar damage was experienced further north in St. Mary Parish, in the towns of Franklin, Charenton, and Jeanerette, where mobile homes were toppled and debris from homes were scattered. At Port Fourchon, power lines were knocked down and a restaurant was unroofed, where winds were estimated to be between 80 and 85 mph. Damage was lighter in Jefferson Parish, where damage to mobile homes was reported and shingles were blown off, due to winds between 60 and 65 mph. The levee in the parish remained untouched. Across the state, the hurricane damaged 23,000 homes and destroyed 985 homes and 1,951 mobile homes; private property damage was estimated at $1 billion. The high winds destroyed large areas of sugar and soybean crops, estimated at $289 million in damage. During the storm’s passage, upwelling occurred in the Atchafalaya Basin and Bayou Lafourche, killing 187 million freshwater fish. Damage to the fishing industry was estimated at $266 million. Overall, losses in the state of Louisiana reached approximately $1.56 billion.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Source: NOAA

 

Low Humidity Until Friday… Scattered Weekend Storms… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4:45pm #alwx

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Good Tuesday afternoon! Dewpoints are in the 50s this afternoon, which means there is little humidity across the area. The dry air is making low 90s feel much more bearable, especially with a light northeast wind. Temperatures will fall tonight pretty quickly, with many locations in the lower 70s by 10pm and upper 60s after midnight. 

Wednesday and Thursday will feature a good supply of sun and low humidity. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s during the day, with lows in the upper 60s at night. Humidity gradually returns on Friday and over the weekend.

As a disturbance moves in from the northwest, expect a good chance of scattered storms over the holiday weekend. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday and Sunday, expect a good chance of storms at times, but I don’t expect rain all day. We can expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky over the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. The risk of scattered storms will gradually decrease on Labor day, but a few pop up storms are still expected. Highs will return into the lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday, with an increase in the amount of sunshine.

In the tropics, we’re watching Hurricane Cristobal track across the western Atlantic. Winds are sustained at 75mph, with pressure of 984mb. Cristobal will remain well east of the US, impacting only shipping interest in the next few days. We’re also watching a second tropical wave in the central Atlantic, but this is days and days from land, so we’ve got time to watch it. The second wave is fighting very dry air, so it may not even survive. There’s a 3rd wave coming off the African coast now. Some models slowly develop this feature and track it westward… At this time, I don’t see anything significant threatening the US over the next 5 to 7 days.

Alabama takes on West Virginia in Atlanta on Saturday, with a 2:30pm kickoff. Since the game will be inside the Georgia Dome, conditions will be comfortable during the game. If you are traveling to or from the game, there will be a few scattered storms nearby. Outside temperatures will top out in the upper 80s, while it will be in the 70s inside the air conditioned dome… 

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

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