Snow Chances on Friday – Updated 12 AM Wednesday

Will it snow in central Alabama? There are a lot of uncertainties in the snow chances here on Friday. Models have had a hard time handling this next system, so we’re going to try our best to give you a forecast. Here’s the Canadian model. This is the most aggressive with snow in central Alabama. In-fact, it suggest all of Alabama gets accumulating snow, with 2 to 3 inches in Tuscaloosa and 6 inches or more along HWY 80. This is not a forecast. The Canadian model has the low in a good position for an Alabama snow storm, but this is only one of many models we look at when building a forecast.

The next model below is the NAM, or North American Mesoscale Model. This model also brings snow to all of Alabama, but it keeps the surface low further south. Thickness values with the NAM support all snow for central Alabama.

Next model in line is the GFS or the Global Forecasting System. It is also on a further southward track, but it has most of the precipitation well to the south of Tuscaloosa. If this model is correct, we would see only flurries in Central Alabama. This winter, nearly all lows that track across the Gulf of Mexico make a turn northeast at some point. The NAM and GFS do not show this track, so we have to wonder if this is an incorrect solution. As data continues to come out, we will fine-tune the forecast. I think this is something that we need to keep a close eye on. If the low tracks close to the coast, we have a real threat of significant snow in central Alabama. Forecasting winter weather in Alabama is very hard to do for even the most skilled forecaster. So many variables have to come into play for a good snow here. We will sort through tomorrow’s data and give you a much more detailed forecast.

WVUA-TV’s Richard Scott

2/9/10 Webcast

Latest Webcast From Chief Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

Time-Lapse

We captured a time-lapse today that depicts the colder air moving in. Watch for the shift in the movement of the cloud cover.

Weather Forecast Discussion 3:54 PM 2/9

We picked up just under a half inch of rain earlier today, which was just enough to keep the ground soggy. A river flood warning remains in place for the Lower Demopolis L&D, along the Tombigbee Waterway. A slight rise along the Tombigbee will take place at Pickensville, however the river level will remain below flood stage. River levels where on the fall at all other reporting locations.

We captured a really neat time-lapse that shows the cold frontal passage which took place earlier. The clouds will be clearing out tonight, with low temperatures in the middle 20s. It’s going to remain quite windy at times tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow should be a much brighter day, although temperatures will have a tough time making a recovery. Highs will be in the 40s, with lows in the 20s again tomorrow night. Look for increasing clouds again on Thursday, with highs in the 40s.

Our forecast is highlighting the chance for some snow late Thursday night and on Friday. The interesting part of the forecast is that areas south of Tuscaloosa will have the greatest chance of seeing snow. There will be a low pressure area tracking across the Gulf and this may bring enough moisture on Friday for some light snow. One thing is for certain, it is going to be very cold with highs only in the 30s. The model data has been very consistent with keeping the deepest moisture to our south but given the pattern recently, I can’t rule out this system taking a slight jog to the north. The National Weather Service has already issued a special weather statement highlighting the potential for 1-3 inches of snow. I’m thinking the greatest potential for accumulating snow will be just north of the highway 84 corridor early Friday.

Saturday and Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy days, with highs only in the 40s. There will be a chance for a few showers late Sunday as another shot of cold air moves into Alabama. We will wake up to more clouds and cold weather on Monday. Be sure to join us tonight for more details!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Afternoon Discussion 2/8/2010 4:23PM

Good afternoon! Today the sun managed to peak through the clouds for the first time in over three days. The weather was completely opposite over north Alabama where some wintry weather has occurred. A low pressure system and associated cold front is approaching from the west. This system will bring us a cold rain late tonight and early tomorrow. There may be some sleet mixed in initially over northern sections of the area. Residents in cities like Memphis and Little Rock are dealing with a more significant winter weather event. Over three inches of snow and sleet fell in the Little Rock area today. The cold air associated with this winter weather will invade Alabama tomorrow. We will start off the day in the mid 40s, with temperatures in the 30s during the afternoon. We will have a cold-gusty north wind developing by tomorrow afternoon, with rain ending from west to east. Tomorrow night the sky will be cloudy, with lows in the 20s. There may be a few snow flurries over northern sections of the area.

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry days, with a mixture of clouds and sun. Temperatures will top out in the 40s, with lows in the 20s. Things will get very interesting late Thursday as low pressure develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Upper air energy associated with this feature will pivot into Alabama during the day Friday. This system will squeeze out precipitation on Friday and we are questioning precipitation type? The latest model data paints a scenario in which rain will occur followed by a period of snow in West and Central Alabama on Friday. At this time I’m forecasting some light rain late Thursday night, transitioning to snow on Friday. If enough moisture is present, there may be some accumulating snow. I’m sure we will have to make some adjustments as we determine the area with the greatest combination of moisture and cold air. The storm system will quickly depart by Saturday and you can expect another cloudy weekend, with highs in the 40s. If we end up with snow on the ground, parts of the area would certainly add to the big weekend chill. Be sure to join us tonight for more details!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update – 2:08 PM

A good Sunday to you! Clouds, clouds go away and come back another day… Sun is hard to find today, with cloudy skies sticking with us. The bad news is that we will see more clouds than sun over the next 7 days. A very active subtropical jet will bring storm-system right after another. That being the case, we can expect rain every few days; maybe even some wintry weather along the way.

Today’s weather will continue to be nasty, with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. With clouds continuing very thick, we will not warm up much at all. Skies will gradually clear out tonight, and temperatures will approach the upper 20s. If we’re lucky enough to see any sun tomorrow, it will be short lived, as more clouds stream in during the afternoon. I’m calling for a mostly sunny start, with clouds increasing. Highs warm into the lower and middle 50s. A few showers are possible late in the day, but don’t expect much before sunset. Heavy rain moves in Monday night and Tuesday morning. Rainfall totals approach 2 inches in spots. As a strong cold front moves in Tuesday morning, we’ll deal with falling temperatures through the day. We will likely be in the upper 30s around sunset. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few snow flakes Tuesday evening for areas north of Fayette. While we see mostly rain around here, another significant winter storm will blast thought the heartland of the nation and into the northeast. This could be another case where 20 to 30 inches of snow falls between Washington D.C. and New York City.

As the low pressure moves out, this sets the stage for an interesting forecast on Friday. Cold air moves in thought the rest of the week. Highs struggle to reach the middle 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. A vigorous shortwave trough moves into the south and spins up a gulf low. The data coming in today suggest that a deepening low in the northern gulf cloud spread wintry weather into central Alabama. As of now, I have rain/snow in the forecast. Since this is several days out, it will likely change some, but we need to keep a close eye on this one. I think by Tuesday, we’ll have a much better handle on what this thing will do. Either way we cut it, we can expect cold and unsettled weather for Friday. Wes and Robert will have much more on this tomorrow night.

Cold weather continues to move in behind this system, with temperatures well below average. Be sure to join me tonight at 10 PM on WVUA-TV for the latest on your weather.

Have a great day!

Richard Scott

Saturday Afternoon Weather Update – 5:11 PM

A good Saturday to you! Our weather has been nasty today, with cloudy skies, a cold north wind and drizzle at times. It sure looks like we’re about to get in an interesting pattern, with one storm-system right after another. With cold air nearby, could any of this be in the form of frozen precipitation? As of now, I do not have wintry weather in the forecast, but we will have to keep an eye on Friday.

Clouds hang tough tonight and early tomorrow, as we continue with this raw weather. Temperatures approach the lower 30s tonight. Sun makes a return near noon tomorrow, with decreasing clouds through the day. Temperatures gradually warm in the upper 40s. Our next low pressure gets cranked up in time for Monday and Tuesday, so we will introduce clouds and more rain in the forecast. A few showers are possible on Monday, with a high of 55 degrees. As low pressure works over central Alabama on Tuesday, we will see heavy rain at times. Rainfall totals will approach 1 to 2 inches by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures fall through the 40s on Tuesday.

Conditions remain cold through the rest of the week and the weekend, as another area of low pressure moves our way. There are many questions involving Friday’s system. All data suggest that central Alabama gets a round of wintry weather on Friday. Although data is suggesting that, I will stick with rain for now. This is several days out and our data will change a lot between now and then. We will continue to keep an eye on it and let you know the latest on our thoughts as we get closer to Friday. We will have a much better understanding of it by Tuesday. Be sure to join me tonight at 10 PM for your latest weather on WVUA-TV.

Have a great day!

Richard Scott

Forecast Discussion 2/5 4:12 PM

I want to thank the faculty and students over at Collins Riverside Middle School for inviting me to serve as guest speaker today! I spoke to all of the 6th graders and I will have some sights and sounds from that visit on our live news tonight. We set a 24 hour rainfall record yesterday, with totals near 2 inches in Tuscaloosa. One of the most impressive totals was 3.03″ in Clanton. I have included a graphic with our latest river stages and the highlighted values are those expected to top flood stage. The storm system that moved through yesterday is producing a wide variety of severe weather east of here. Up to two feet of snow will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region. In fact, blizzard warnings are in place for portions of Delaware and New Jersey. On the opposite end of the spectrum a tornado watch is up for central Florida. A tornado warning was up earlier for the Daytona Beach area.

Our sky will remain gloomy on the backside of the departing storm system. We will have a cold north wind tonight, with lows in the middle 30s. Some drizzle will be possible tonight and after midnight there may be a few snow flurries. Tomorrow will also be a cloudy day and we will have some drizzle or snow flurries early. You can expect a cold north wind tomorrow, with highs only in the low 40s. We will continue to deal with lots of clouds tomorrow night and into the morning hours on Sunday. Look for the clouds to break by noon on Sunday, with afternoon sunshine. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40s.

On Monday the clouds will be increasing again, with rain arriving on Tuesday. I’m expecting a shield of light rain to slowly push across the area by Tuesday night, with lingering clouds into early Wednesday. The clouds should break by Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the 40s. Clouds will thicken again on Thursday as low pressure moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm system late next week will pass well to our south. In fact, the models are forecasting no rain for us on Thursday or Friday. I’m not buying into this scenario right now. If you have plans late next week, be prepared for the possibility of showers next Friday. Have a great weekend!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Latest River Stages 2/4 9:40 PM

Forecast Discussion 2/4 4:12 PM

A cold rain continues over West and Central Alabama. Most areas have picked up around a half inch of rain so far and totals should easily top the one inch mark overnight. Our lowest temperature of the night will be occurring around sunset, with a slight rise in temperatures through midnight. The temperature rise will be gradual with an occasional rain through the early morning hours. Some heavier downpours may develop late tonight as low pressure passes to our south. Clouds will linger into the day tomorrow and the steady rainfall will taper off to isolated showers by the afternoon. Highs will be near 53 degrees by midday, with falling temperatures into the late afternoon. A chilly west-northwest wind will develop tomorrow night, with a cloudy sky. A shower or light drizzle can’t be ruled out tomorrow night or on Saturday. Our weekend is going to be very cold, with highs only in the 40s on Saturday.

The storm system brining us all of the rain at the moment will head northeast and bring blizzard conditions to parts of Delaware and New Jersey. A steep gradient will develop on the backside of this deepening storm system and this will bring the cold wind on Saturday. There may be a few snow flurries Saturday night. Look for sunshine to return on Sunday and for the first part of Monday. Another storm system is still on track to bring us more clouds and rain starting Monday night and continuing into the day on Tuesday. Some very cold air will be lurking just to the north and once Tuesday’s system passes, the temperatures will be on the fall. Highs may only reach the upper 30s next Wednesday, with lingering cloud cover. There is a concern for the possibility of some wintry weather over the Tennessee Valley next week. We should enjoy brighter weather again on Wednesday and Thursday, with rain returning late next week.

I want to thank the Pre-K School out at First Presbyterian Church for inviting me to stop by for a visit today. Unfortunately, I had to re-schedule at the last minute. Thankfully our cameras where able to make it! I will be speaking to the 6th Graders at Collins-Riverside Middle School tomorrow, should be fun. Have a great evening!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist