Saturday Evening Weather Discussion – 7:07 PM

A good Saturday to you! It was certainly a nice day to be outdoors, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s. Now that the sun has set, temperatures will cool off quiet a bit for the overnight hours. We can expect lows in the lower 40s. Upper 30s are likely for northeast Alabama.

We’ll have one more day of nice weather on Sunday. Temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 70s for highs, but clouds begin to move in late in the day; mainly high level clouds. Tropical Storm Ida is expected to become a hurricane later tonight, and will move into the Gulf of Mexico. It is late in the year, but it is still the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Sure, it’s rare for a tropical system to be in the gulf this time of the year, but it has happened before. Our weather will go downhill Monday afternoon, with rain spreading in from the south. As Ida gets closer to Alabama, we’ll see windy conditions developing. Winds gusting to 35 or 40 MPH in some locations are possible. We can expect periods of moderate to heavy rain Monday evening, Monday night and on Tuesday. The good news is that Ida will be weakening as it moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico, so we aren’t expecting winds to get too strong. The system moves out on Wednesday, with temperatures becoming a little cooler. Highs will top out in the upper 60s on Wednesday.

For the rest of the week and the weekend, nice weather makes a return, with highs in the lower 70s and sunny skies. A cold front moves in on Saturday, which will bring some rain with it. Be sure to join me tonight at 10 PM on WVUA-TV for the latest on Ida and your forecast.

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Have a great day!
Richard Scott

An Updated Ida Forecast…

Tropical Depression Ida is expected to move northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. It should continue northward into the central Gulf, but an approaching cold front is expected to steer the cyclone toward the Florida Peninsula. Here is the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

 

 

 

 

 

 

Isaac Williams
WVUA-Weather

Forecast Discussion Update 11/6 – 4:31 PM

Good afternoon! At the time of this update Ida was a tropical depression over the far western Caribbean. This system is now moving back over open water and should gain some strength as it lifts northward towards the Gulf.

We’ve enjoyed more tranquil conditions here in West Alabama. You can expect a cold Friday night for those high school playoff games. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s. The good thing is that tomorrow will be another pleasantly warm day, with highs in the 70s. Although it is going to be warm, be sure to hang on to the jacket for the Alabama and LSU game. Because it’s getting darker sooner we will have some chilly temperatures by the fourth quarter of this particular game.

On Sunday some high clouds will start entering the area as a south flow strengthens over Alabama. A cold front is moving our way and this front, coupled with a surface trough over the Gulf, will produce a good coverage of rain late Monday and on Tuesday. The front will push through late Tuesday, with clearing on Wednesday. This front will also send Ida eastward, with the system impacting Florida. Look for bright weather to continue next Thursday and Friday. Have a great weekend!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Looking Back at Later-Season Hurricanes…

The latter half of the 2005 Hurricane Season continued to set records. On October 15, a tropical depression developed over the western Caribbean Sea. While the depression was slow to strengthen, it eventually acquired tropical storm status 2 days later, and was named Wilma. It gradually intensified and was classified a hurricane on the morning of October 18. A mere 20 hours later, hurricane hunters measured a central pressure of 882mb, which was the lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. Accordingly, the maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 175mph, making Wilma a dangerous category 5 hurricane as well as the strongest hurricane ever.

Hurricanes in November do not happen very often. One particular hurricane in November occurred in 1985 in Hurricane Kate. This hurricane began as a tropical depression near the U.S. Virgin Islands on the south side of a strong ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. Kate continued west-northwestward, passing to the north of Puerto Rico and south of the Bahamas. Kate became a rare major hurricane as it passed through the Florida Straits into the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Kate gradually turned northward and eventually northeastward across the east-central Gulf, and made landfall as a category two hurricane in the central Florida Panhandle. Kate dropped heavy rains across the panhandle, with Panama City receiving 8.32″ of rain. Usually, the heaviest rains are found on the north and eastern side of a cyclone; however, because of an approaching frontal boundary to the northwest, the heaviest rains occurred on the northwest and west side of Kate. The hurricane eventually weakened as it accelerated northeastward across southern Georgia and eventually re-emerged in the western Atlantic as a remnant low.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-Weather

Forecast Discussion Update 11/5 4:20 PM

Ida made a landfall earlier today as a hurricane in Nicaragua. The system is now a tropical storm and expected to track northward towards the Gulf of Mexico. In the meantime, our weather remains absolutely beautiful in Alabama. We will have a clear sky tonight and there are some concerns about frost in the area. The National Weather Service has issued frost advisories as far south as Pickens and Tuscaloosa counties from 2 – 8 AM. After a cold start tomorrow, we will enjoy a very nice Friday. Highs tomorrow will be in the 70s, with a mostly sunny sky. Tomorrow night will be quite chilly once again; however, comfortable temperatures will return by Saturday afternoon. It should be a wonderful weekend for college football in Tuscaloosa!

High clouds will start entering the area on Sunday as moisture lifts into Alabama. Look for increasing clouds and rain on Monday as low pressure approaches from the Gulf. This low will lift in as a cold front sweeps in from the west. We will have a good chance of rain Monday night and on Tuesday, with mild and humid conditions. Drier air should start filtering in behind the front on Wednesday, with the rain shifting east of our area. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only in the 60s. Ida is a separate system from the actual low that will impact our area on Tuesday. According to some of the new long range data, if Ida does make it to the central gulf, the cold front next week should sweep the system towards Florida. Stay tuned!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Latest on Hurricane Ida

Forecast Discussion Update 11/4 4:32 PM

A tropical storm has developed in the Gulf of Mexico and this system named “Ida” has been the highlight of the day. It is not unusual to have tropical systems in the Gulf during this time of the year. In fact, hurricane season runs through the end of November. I was talking with one of our weather experts at UA today, Dr. Jason Senkbeil, and we were discussing Hurricane Wilma. This was the last major hurricane to strike Florida during this time of the year. The last tropical system to impact Alabama in November was Kate in 1985. This system was a category one hurricane as it moved into Apalachicola during mid-November of 1985.

We will continue to enjoy comfortable days and cold nights here in West Alabama. Highs will be near 70 degrees, with lows in the 40s. The sky will be sunny through the end of the work-week, with a clear sky at night. The forecast for the weekend also looks great, with a south breeze developing. The sky will be sunny on Saturday, with a few high clouds spreading in on Sunday. By Monday, moisture will begin to lift in from the south in advance of an approaching cold front. Ida will also be tracking towards the central Gulf. There is a chance Ida may impact Florida, with some associated rain over Alabama. I’m forecasting rain on Monday and Tuesday as the front drops in and sweeps the moisture and possibly Ida eastward. Needless to say there is a lot that could change in our forecast for early next week. Be sure to stay with us as we continue to fine tune the forecast. Let me conclude by thanking the 1st graders at Holy Spirit Elementary School for allowing me to visit today. We had lots of fun sharing stories about weather and talking about science in general.

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Tropical Depression # 11 Could Become Ida Later Today

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED.  TAFB/SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0…30 KT…AT 1200 UTC…AND THAT INTENSITY
WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING…HOWEVER…IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM
DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7…THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER
REFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN…THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON
THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.  HOWEVER…SOME OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE…SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET…SHOW THE
SYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT…ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE GFDL…ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE…MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER…NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL.  THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE…AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.

WVUA-TV’s Richard Scott

Forecast Discussion Update 11/3 4:10 PM

The stretch of gorgeous weather continues across West Alabama. Temperatures today made it into the comfy middle 70s. Lows tonight will be in the cold 40s, with a moon lit sky overhead. This full moon is known as the “Frosty Moon” because of the frosty nights often associated with the mid to high latitudes during this time of the year. Look for more sunshine tomorrow and on Wednesday. Each day we will enjoy highs in the 70s. Another cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of dry air on Thursday. Other than a few high clouds on Thursday, the sky will remain quite sunny for the final two days of the workweek.

Our weekend forecast looks great, with ample sunshine and highs in the 70s. I do think more clouds will enter the area late on Sunday. High pressure will slide east, with a southerly flow returning. Look for moisture to lift in Sunday night and there may be a few showers. A few showers will be possible on Monday, with a partly cloudy sky overhead. On Tuesday the sky will be cloudy, with a greater chance for rain and thunderstorms. Have a great evening!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

NWS STORM SURVEY

5:24 PM TORNADO 5 Miles SW of HALEYVILLE (34.19N 87.68W) 10/30/2009 EF1 MARION AL
A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF MARION COUNTY ROAD 19 AND ALABAMA ROAD 129 NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF THORN HILL. THE TORNADO TRAVELED TO THE NORTHEAST AND CROSSED OVER ALABAMA ROAD 129 BEFORE LIFTING. ALONG THE PATH, THE TORNADO DAMAGED THE ROOFS OF 4 HOMES AND 3 OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED. ALSO ALONG THE PATH, 20 HARDWOOD TREES WERE UPROOTED AND AT LEAST 5 WERE SNAPPED IN HALF. THE LENGTH OF THE PATH WAS 2.8 MILES AND THE TORNADO WAS 200 YARDS AT ITS WIDEST POINT.