Mostly Dry and Mild Days Ahead… Thursday Forecast Update – 3:30pm #alwx

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Good Thursday afternoon! It has turned out to be a rather hot day across Alabama, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to near 90 in many locations. There is a very low risk of a stray shower or storm this afternoon and evening, but the chance of that happening at your house is less than 20%. Skies will remain partly cloudy this evening and tonight, as a weak disturbance moves across the area. With dry air in place, widespread storms aren’t expected with this setup. Expect lows to fall into the lower to middle 60s after midnight tonight.

Friday through Sunday will feature partly cloudy to mainly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 80s each afternoon, with lows falling into the middle 60s at night. The risk of rain is very low for the next few days, but I can’t rule out a passing shower or storm. The chance of a pop-up storm in your area Friday through Sunday is near or less than 20%. We’ll be watching a cool air wedge set-up over east Alabama and Georgia on Friday and Saturday. That could allow for a mostly cloudy sky in extreme east Alabama both days, but areas along and west of I-65 is expected to remain mostly sunny.

A weak cold front will pass through on Monday, but limited moisture will mean for limited rain chances. The risk of rain for any one spot on Monday is about 20%. Cooler air will take over on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the middle 80s. Overnight lows should drop into the upper 50s for many areas Monday night and Tuesday night.

Football Friday: Conditions will be perfect for the local high school football games happening on Friday night. Expect clear skies and temperatures in the 70s during game-time. Areas along and north of I-20 may reach the upper 60s to end the local games at 10pm.

Football Saturday: Alabama takes on Florida on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with a 2:30pm kickoff. Conditions will be rather mild during the game, with temperatures in the upper 80s at kickoff. With sunny skies and calm winds, it will feel hot inside the stadium for the game. If you have outdoor events going on during game time, the weather will be nice and quiet.

In the tropics, we have Tropical Storm Edouard… Edouard is moving east across the northern Atlantic and will not impact the US or any landmass. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Dry Days Ahead… Wednesday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

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Good Wednesday afternoon! Our local weather is mild and dry today, with only a few clouds here and there. Skies will remain partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight, as a disturbance to our northwest brings some passing clouds. Since the air is very dry over Alabama, I don’t expect any risk of rain today through Sunday. An area of high pressure to our north and northeast will continue to pump dry air into the state through Sunday. Expect a stretch with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s. Today through Sunday will be nearly the exact same each day…

A weak cold front will pass through Alabama on Monday, but with little moisture ahead of the front, the risk of rain will remain low. A few passing showers or storms will be possible on Monday, but a wide-spread rain event is not expected at this time. A shot of drier and slightly cooler air will move back in on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Football Friday: Conditions will be perfect for the local high school football games happening on Friday night. Expect clear skies and temperatures in the 70s during game-time. Areas along and north of I-20 may reach the upper 60s to end the local games at 10pm.

Football Saturday: Alabama takes on Florida on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with a 2:30pm kickoff. Conditions will be rather mild during the game, with temperatures in the upper 80s at kickoff. With sunny skies and calm winds, it will feel hot inside the stadium for the game. If you have outdoor events going on during game time, the weather will be nice and quiet.

In the tropics, we have category 1 hurricane Edouard… Edouard will not impact the US or any landmass, as it remains in the open waters of the Atlantic. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH…43 KM/H.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H… WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY…AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB…28.29 INCHES.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Mild & Dry Days Ahead… Tropical Update… Weekend Forecast… Tuesday Update – 3:30pm #alwx

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Good Tuesday afternoon! It’s been 10 years since west and central Alabama was heavily damaged from Hurricane Ivan. Ivan came ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a strong category 3 hurricane, with winds sustained at 120mph and higher gusts. Numerous trees and powerlines were downed across our part of Alabama, as a result of the powerful winds from Ivan. Numerous homes were damaged due to falling trees as the storm tracked through central Alabama. Landfall offically occurred at 1:50am on September 16, 2004. Below is a radar image, showing the eye of Hurricane Ivan, as it moved over Gulf Shores…

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Our local weather is pretty quiet today, but a weak cold front is tracking southward through the area this afternoon. The front will bring drier and slightly cooler conditions tomorrow through Saturday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the lower 60s. With low dewpoints, conditions will feel fantastic during the morning and evening hours. The risk of rain for the rest of this afternoon and evening is very low, but I can’t rule out a passing shower or storm. Skies will become clear tonight as dry air settles into the area from the north.

Skies will remain mostly sunny on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, with no risk of rain for our area. An area of high pressure will remain just north of the area, but it will be close enough to influence our local weather. With clear skies and calm winds during the evening and morning hours, it will feel great. By mid afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in many spots.

Football Friday: Conditions will be perfect for the local high school football games happening on Friday night. Expect clear skies and temperatures in the 70s during game-time. Areas along and north of I-20 may reach the upper 60s to end the local games at 10pm.

Football Saturday: Alabama takes on Florida on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with a 2:30pm kickoff. Conditions will be rather mild during the game, with temperatures in the upper 80s at kickoff. With sunny skies and calm winds, it will feel hot inside the stadium for the game. If you have outdoor events going on during game time, the weather will be nice and quiet.

In the tropics, we have category 2 hurricane Edouard… Edouard will not impact the US or any landmass, as it remains in the open waters of the Atlantic. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/H… WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES…295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB…28.29 INCHES.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Looking Back at the Extremely Destructive Hurricane Ivan… 10 Years Ago Tonight… Monday Night Update – 10:45pm #alwx

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Tonight is the 10 year anniversary of the landfall of powerful Hurricane Ivan. Ivan caused significant damage to much of Alabama, with numerous trees and power lines down from the coast northward into the Tennessee Valley. At 1:50am, Ivan made landfall very close to Gulf Shores, Alabama as a category strong category 3 hurricane. The official landfall would occur in the pre-dawn hours of September 16, 2004. Ivan maintained hurricane status as far north as Uniontown before being downgraded to a strong tropical storm. Below is a radar image as Hurricane Ivan made landfall…

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Ivan caused extensive damage across nearly all of Central Alabama, with winds of 60 to 80 MPH south of a line from Emelle to Greensboro to Marion. There were some wind gusts near 90 MPH around Linden and Demopolis. I remember Ivan personally, as I was living in Linden (central Marengo County) at the time. We didn’t have power at my home in Linden for 6 days. Some people in that area didn’t have power for over 2 weeks. The most drastic experience from that storm came from the constant sound of trees snapping and wind roaring through the trees; in-fact, in some of the higher gusts, it sounded similar to a jet engine. There were many others in the area that reported that similar sound. Roads were covered in leaves, limbs and trees, so travel was a mess for a day or two, especially on the secondary roads.

Winds in the Tuscaloosa area ranged between 50 and 60 MPH. With very heavy rain, Ivan’s winds brought down many trees. As soil becomes saturated, it is easier for winds to bring down trees. Rain was another big deal from Ivan, with the highest rainfall total coming from Birmingham, with a rainfall total of 9.81 inches.

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The image above is of HWY 59, coming into Gulf Shores after the storm…

Below is a picture of Sea N Suds after Hurricane Ivan…

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Here’s a great post from NOAA on Hurricane Ivan from the beginning to end of it’s life cycle:

On September 2, 2004, Tropical Depression Nine formed from a large tropical wave southwest of Cape Verde. As the system moved to the west, it strengthened gradually, becoming Tropical Storm Ivan on September 3 and reaching hurricane strength on September 5, 1,150 miles to the east of Tobago. Later that day, the storm intensified rapidly, and by 5 pm EDT, Ivan became a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph. The National Hurricane Center said that the rapid strengthening of Ivan on September 5 was unprecedented at such a low latitude in the Atlantic basin.

As it moved west, Ivan weakened slightly because of wind shear in the area. The storm passed over Grenada on September 7, battering several of the Windward Islands. As it entered the Caribbean Sea, Ivan reintensified rapidly and became a Category 5 hurricane just north of the Windward Netherlands Antilles (Curaçao and Bonaire) and Aruba on September 9 with winds reaching 160 mph. Ivan weakened slightly as it moved west-northwest towards Jamaica. As Ivan approached the island late on September 10, it began a westward jog that kept the eye and the strongest winds to the south and west. However, because of its proximity to the Jamaican coast, the island was battered with hurricane-force winds for hours.

After passing Jamaica, Ivan resumed a more northerly track and regained Category 5 strength. Ivan’s strength continued to fluctuate as it moved west on September 11, and the storm attained its highest winds of 165 mph as it passed within 30 miles of Grand Cayman. Ivan reached its peak strength with a minimum central pressure of 910mb on September 12, making Ivan the tenth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, as of August 2007. Ivan passed through the Yucatán Channel late on September 13 while its eyewall affected the westernmost tip of Cuba. Once over the Gulf of Mexico, it weakened slightly to Category 4 strength, which it maintained while approaching the Gulf Coast of the United States.

Just before it made landfall in the United States, Ivan’s eyewall weakened considerably, and its southwestern portion almost disappeared. Around 2 am CDT September 16, Ivan made landfall on the U.S. mainland in Gulf Shores, Alabama as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds; some hurricane information sources put the winds from Hurricane Ivan near 130 mph upon landfall in Alabama and northwestern Florida. Ivan then continued inland, maintaining hurricane strength until it was over central Alabama. Ivan weakened rapidly that evening and became a tropical depression the same day, still over Alabama. Ivan lost tropical characteristics on September 18 while crossing Virginia. Later that day, the remnant low drifted off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast into the Atlantic Ocean, and the low pressure disturbance continued to dump rain on the United States.

On September 20, Ivan’s remnant surface low completed an anticyclonic loop and moved across the Florida peninsula. As it continued west across the northern Gulf of Mexico, the system reorganized and again took on tropical characteristics. On September 22 the National Hurricane Center, “after considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion the demise of Ivan,” determined that the low was in fact a result of the remnants of Ivan and thus named it accordingly. On the evening of September 23, the revived Ivan made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana as a tropical depression. Ivan finally dissipated on September 24 as it moved overland into Texas….

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Quiet Weather Days Ahead… Hurricane in the Tropics… Monday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx

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Good Monday afternoon! At 4pm, scattered storms are tracking from west to east across central Alabama, but not everyone is picking up rain. While a few downpours will continue possible through 10pm tonight, some of you will totally miss the rain. Temperatures will gradually fall into the upper 60s to near 70 for a low tonight. A weak cold front will pass through Alabama on Tuesday, and I can’t rule out a stray shower or storm along the front, but the risk of rain tomorrow is low. Expect a partly cloudy sky, with a high in the upper 80s.

The weather will become very calm on Wednesday through Sunday, as an area of high pressure takes over. Temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 80s during the day each day, with lows in the lower 60s at night. With lower dewpoints across the state, and clear skies, temperatures will feel great during the evening and overnight hours! Our next cold front is set to arrive early next week, with the risk of a few storms on Monday.

Football Friday: Conditions will be perfect for the local high school football games happening on Friday night. Expect clear skies and temperatures in the 70s during game-time. Areas along and north of I-20 may reach the upper 60s to end the local games at 10pm.

Football Saturday: Alabama takes on Florida on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with a 2:30pm kickoff. Conditions will be rather mild during the game, with temperatures in the upper 80s at kickoff. With sunny skies and calm winds, it will feel hot inside the stadium for the game. If you have outdoor events going on during game time, the weather will be nice and quiet.

In the tropics, we have category 2 hurricane Edouard… Edouard will not impact the US or any landmass, as it remains in the open waters of the Atlantic. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY…FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST …AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM.

THE MINIMUM PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 963 MB…28.44 INCHES.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Impressive Hurricane Edouard… Monday Update – 3pm #alwx

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Good Monday afternoon! We’re watching a very impressive hurricane in the central Atlantic at this hour, but this storm won’t get anywhere near the US or any land mass at all on it’s track into the north Atlantic. Hurricane Edouard is expected to become a category 3 hurricane soon, which will classify it as a major hurricane. The rest of the tropics are quiet… Here’s the discussion from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Edouard:

Edouard is approaching category 3 strength.  The eye of the hurricane has become circular this afternoon, and deep convection has increased in the eyewall.  Flight-level and SFMR winds, as well as dropsonde data from two NOAA reconnaissance aircraft, indicate that maximum winds are near 110mph and the minimum pressure has decreased to 963 mb.  Radar images from one of the NOAA aircraft indicate that the convective pattern is quite symmetric.

The hurricane could strengthen some more during the next day or so while both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable. After that time, however, cooler water, drier air, and a notable increase in shear should cause Edouard to weaken at a steady pace. The cyclone is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 when it is expected to be over very cold water and interacting with a frontal zone.  The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance for the next 36 hours, and then follows the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Edouard continues to move northwestward but at a slightly slower pace than earlier, 305/11 kt.  Water vapor imagery and satellite- derived winds indicate that the western side of the ridge that has been steering the hurricane is eroding in response to a trough over the western Atlantic.  This change in the large-scale pattern should cause Edouard to turn northward during the next 24 hours. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward and then eastward when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  A slow down and a turn toward the southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening system is steered by the flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast has again been nudged to the left to come into better agreement with the latest guidance.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Clouds and Scattered Storms Tomorrow… Sunday Forecast Update — 8:30pm

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A good Sunday evening to you! We saw plenty of sunshine today and that brought us warm temperatures back near 90 across Central Alabama. The sunshine made for a great sunset this evening over downtown Tuscaloosa.For tonight, partly cloudy conditions with temperatures dipping back into the upper 60s.

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The clouds will increase into Monday morning as another wave of energy swings through the South bringing clouds and storms to Alabama for Monday. Monday will not be a washout, but with some warm air and extra moisture mixing in with energy we could see some heavy downpours Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will still be warm in the upper 80s even with the extra cloud cover and storms. Monday night will still be fairly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 60s; however, by Tuesday the rain and clouds will begin to clear out leaving us with a beautiful second half of the work week.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be warm, in the upper 80s, with a couple leftover storms across SE AL. The cool air will work back in Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs through the rest of the week will be in the mid 80s, low temperatures will be very nice in the low 60s. Sunshine will prevail Wednesday through the weekend.

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As for the Tropics, Edouard has been upgraded to a category 1 Hurricane. Edouard will recurve north and then east into the north central Atlantic Ocean. Edouard is not a threat for any U.S. coastlines. The rest of the Tropics have quieted down, but we will continue to keep an eye out.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank

WVUA Staff Meteorologist

Twitter: crankyweather

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