Warm and Sunny Sunday… Saturday Forecast Update — 8:20pm

Sevenday

Good Saturday evening! The weather this week will gradually warm until a cold front accompanied by rain moves through the state.

Today we reached a warm Autumn temperature of 80° thanks to winds flowing from the southwest. We saw mostly clear skies throughout the day. Tonight we should have a mild temperature of 51° with mostly clear skies.

Tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday we should continue to see a general warming trend as we work through the week.  Tomorrow and Monday will have plenty of sunshine with warm winds flowing from the south making our high temperatures hover around the low 80’s. Starting Tuesday, we should start to see cloud cover as a cold front approaches the state.

A cold front will move through the state Wednesday and Thursday bringing isolated showers. Behind the front, clear skies and a steady northern wind will slowly drive temperatures down just in time for Halloween. It will be a struggle to reach the 70’s on Friday and by Saturday we could see highs only in the mid 60’s! Morning lows will be on the brisk side Saturday morning in the low 40’s.

Weather in the tropics is calming down as the remains of tropical depression nine continues to die out. It is currently located in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. It is unlikely that it will reorganize, but we will continue to watch it.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank

WVUA Staff Meteorologist

Twitter: crankyweather

Dry and Sunny Weekend…. Friday Forecast Update — 3:15pm

Sevenday

Good Friday evening to you! The sunshine remains with us through the weekend, and a shift in the wind direction will mean some warmer temperatures this weekend into next week.

Tonight will be a very nice, autumn night. Mostly clear conditions and cool in the mid-upper 40s. The winds will shift through the day on Saturday from out of the north, to out of the southwest. The shift in wind direction will pump warmer air into Alabama, allowing us to warm up to near 80° each afternoon Saturday through Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies will hang out through Monday, before a few more clouds finally make it into Alabama ahead of a cold front.

The cold front is currently expect to bring clouds and rain Wednesday through Friday morning. There is some disagreement as to how much cloud cover we will see, and that could affect how much rain we actually get out of this system. For Wednesday and Thursday, expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The system will be kicking out Thursday night into Friday morning, and how quickly it does so will determine whether or not we see a shower Friday morning. If we do see any rain on Friday, it will be a quick shot and clearing Friday afternoon and evening, just in time for Halloween and trick or treating. Temperatures for Halloween night will be cool, and the air will be dry and crisp, just what you want for Halloween.

The weather for high school football tonight will be very nice. Around kickoff, the temperatures will be hovering in the low 60s, and by the time the game is finished, things will be nice and cool, in the mid 50s under dry and mostly clear conditions.

The Crimson Tide will kick off against Tennessee Saturday night at 5:30 Central Time under beautiful fall weather. The temperatures should be cool, in the 50s throughout the game with a light breeze and mostly clear skies.

There are some disorganized storms around the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and they have been drifting east at a snail’s pace for almost a week now. The National Hurricane Center is not anticipating much development from these storms; but we will continue to monitor the situation as they move east into the Western Caribbean.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on Facebook and Twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Peter Crank

WVUA Staff Meteorologist

Twitter: crankyweather

Warmer Weekend Ahead… Thursday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Warnings_918

Good Thursday afternoon! We’ve got a batch of high level clouds passing through the area, which is causing some visibility issues for the partial solar eclipse this evening. Keep checking the western sky through sunset incase you have enough clearing to see the partial eclipse. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky through this evening and tonight. Temperatures tonight will drop into the middle 40s.

Friday will mark a slow warming trend, with highs in the middle 70s on Friday, then upper 70s on Saturday. We’ll top out near 80 by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. There is no risk of rain through the weekend or to start off next week, as we will continue under the influence of high pressure.

A few clouds will start to roll back into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. I can’t rule out a stray shower on Tuesday, but expect a better risk of a few scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will remain in the upper 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, with lows in the middle 50s.

Friday night football is looking cool and dry, with temperatures dropping into the 50s by kickoff at the local high school football games. Winds will remain calm Friday evening and Friday night.

Alabama takes on Tennessee in Knoxville Saturday night, with a 6:30pm kickoff. Expect clear skies and cool conditions for the Bama game this weekend. Temperatures will drop into the 50s during game-time, with no risk of rain and a calm wind.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

Nice Fall Weather Continues… Warmer Weekend… Wednesday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Warnings_915

Good Wednesday afternoon! After a chilly start to the day, conditions really turned out nice again this afternoon. Temperatures have recovered nicely into the lower 70s as of 4pm, but temperatures will cool quickly after sunset. Look for clear skies tonight, with temperatures dropping into the 50s by 7pm, and 40s after 10pm. Lows tonight will reach the lower 40s for many, with a few upper 30s north of I-20.

Thursday and Friday will be absolutely gorgeous weather days, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows will remain in the chilly 40s at night. Skies remain mostly sunny over the next few days, as a weak area of high pressure moves across the area. There is no risk of rain over the next 5 days. Temperatures will start to warm a bit by the weekend, with highs returning into the upper 70s. A few spots could reach 80 this weekend, under a sunny sky.

The Friday night football forecast is looking great, with temperatures dropping into the 50s during the local high school games. Expect clear skies and calm winds for the games…

We’re watching tropical depression # 9 in the Bay of Campeche at this hour. Good news… the system remains weak and models keep it well away from Alabama’s Gulf Coast. I don’t expect any issues out of this feature, but we will keep an eye on the tropics as we gradually end the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season in about a month.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

SPC’s Severe Weather Outlooks Change Today! Wednesday Update – 3:45pm #alwx

Warnings_913

Good Wednesday afternoon! First off, please note, this is not a current severe weather risk for our area… These two images serve as an example only.

The Storm Prediction Center has now changed the convective outlooks to include more risk levels. The image above shows the old SPC convective outlooks of slight, moderate and high. Each risk would indicate a level of severity a particular event would produce. Moderate and high risks are understood pretty well by the public, so SPC did not change the moderate and high risk category. The big struggle comes from explaining the slight risk to the average viewer.

When looking at a severe weather event, a slight risk can mean a lot of things from a very minor event to a significant event. If an event were to include a slight risk of severe weather, most people would take that to be no big deal. On some slight risk days, we can see multiple tornadoes or large hail and or damaging winds. Or, on some slight risk days, maybe one spin-up tornado develops or one spot gets some hail and or wind.Warnings_914

The SPC has added two new levels to surround the slight risk, a marginal on the low end and a enhanced on the high end. Check the image above for the new outlook. Notice, the moderate and high risk stay the same, but we’ve added a marginal risk and an enhanced risk to the map. The marginal risk includes the very low end version of a slight risk. On days where there could be some isolated severe weather, but it’s not expected to be a significant event. To go higher on the scale, you still have a standard slight risk, where some severe weather is expected, but not a widespread outbreak type of day. Even higher, you’ve now got an enhanced risk of severe weather. This means, the risk is serious, and needs to be watched very carefully. On an enhanced severe weather risk day, the threats may include tornadoes, and or damaging winds and or large hail.

Here’s the exact breakdown from SPC in terms of the probably of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point:

b. Severe Category 1 – Marginal
– 2% tornado probability, or
– 5% severe hail or severe wind probability.

c. Severe Category 2 – Slight
– 5% tornado probability, or
– 15% severe hail or severe wind probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or wind gusts 75 mph or greater.

d. Severe Category 3 – Enhanced
– 10% tornado probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 15% tornado probability, or
– 30% severe hail or severe wind probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
– 45% probability of severe hail or wind.

e. Severe Category 4 – Moderate
– 15% tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 30% tornado probability, or
– 45% severe wind probability AND 10% or greater
probability of a wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
– 45% severe hail probability AND 10% or greater
probability of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
– 60% severe wind probability, or
– 60% severe hail probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter.

f. Severe Category 5 – High
– 30% tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 45% or greater tornado probability WITH OR WITHOUT 10% or greater probability
of an EF2+ tornado, or
– 60% severe wind probability AND a 10% or greater
probability of a wind gust 75 mph or greater.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

Tropical Depression # 9 Has Formed in the Bay of Campeche… Tuesday Eve Update – 10pm #alwx

123

Good Tuesday evening! We now have newly formed Tropical Depression # 9. This system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow, as it tracks east. The good news is this system will not impact our local weather. Here’s the discussion from the National Hurricane Center below:

AT 1000 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

Awesome Weather Continues… Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Sevenday_640

Good Tuesday afternoon! It’s another nice Fall day across Alabama, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s this afternoon. Temperatures will drop a little tomorrow and Thursday, due to a weak cold front passage. Expect highs to reach the lower 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, with lows in the lower 40s at night. If you have plans outdoors this evening or tonight, expect clear skies and cool conditions. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s for lows tonight, with a light to calm wind.

A north breeze will take over on Wednesday, but it’s not going to be a windy day. The light breeze will only help to reinforce the cooler air already present in our area. Again, highs will top out in the lower 70s both Wednesday and Thursday. Expect a good supply of sun for the rest of the week and over the weekend.

The Friday night football forecast is looking great, with temperatures dropping into the 50s during the local high school games. Expect clear skies and calm winds for the games…

We’re watching an area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This feature is moving east and could become a weak tropical system in the next day or two. Most models keep this feature weak, so we’re not overly concerned about a major storm developing out of this, however, we will be watching it carefully. Fortunately, all models keep it away from Alabama.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua
Facebook: WVUARichardScott

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