Severe Storms on Sunday… Latest Update… Friday – noon #alwx

image4

Good Friday to you! As of noon, not much has changed with our thinking of the severe weather setup on Sunday. A strong storm system will pass through the area during the day on Sunday, bringing a good chance of rain, with a risk of a few severe storms south of I-20. The map above shows where the best chance of isolated severe storms will become possible. Areas in a line from near Eutaw to Moundville to Centreville to Alexander City and points south is in that zone where there will be enough instability, lift and shear to cause some issues. Areas near Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston and points north should be stable enough to prevent issues. As instability rises in these areas later in the day, the best lift and shear will have passed northeast of our area. That’s a good thing because we don’t want to see that perfect mix of unstable air, wind shear and lift across the area!

What to expect: Rain and storms will lift into the area from the southwest late Saturday night. At this point, there will be no suface based instability, so severe weather is not expected. As a warm front lifts northward across the area, unstable air will quickly move into our southern counties, south of I-20. There will be enough wind shear and lift at that time to produce the risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. As instability continues to move north, wind shear and lift will decrease across our area, so the risk of severe storms quickly diminishes by early afternoon.

Please keep an eye on this system because it is a close call to being a higher issues than advertised. Any change in instability could cause the risk to increase or decrease across the area. Keep checking back with us…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Warmer Days Ahead… Storms Returns Saturday Night… Thursday Forecast Update – 4:15pm #alwx

Warnings_965

Good Thursday afternoon! It has turned out to be a fantastic Fall afternoon today, with temperatures reaching the lower 60s for highs. The normal high for Tuscaloosa is 66 today, so it’s nice to get a little closer to average! Clouds are increasing this afternoon and evening across Alabama, as moisture levels slowly increase and uplift increases across the area. I don’t expect any rain this evening or tonight. Temperatures will fall back into the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is nearly 20 degrees warmer than overnight temperatures earlier this week.

Skies will remain partly sunny on Friday and Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 60s. While I do have a rain chance in the forecast most areas will not get a drop of rain until late Saturday night and on Sunday. A strong upper level trough will swing into the area late Saturday and on Sunday. The uplift will cause a batch of rain and storms to develop and move through Alabama Saturday night and early Sunday. Instability will remain too low for severe weather for the initial batch of rain, but big questions come Sunday morning and into the midday hours. Will there be a break in the rain and higher instability before the dry line reaches the state around lunch on Sunday? At this point, most models indicate instability will remain too low for an organized risk of severe weather for our area, with the higher risk of damaging winds and tornadoes happening closer to the coast. That being said, there may be enough instability to cause isolated severe weather to occur as far north as HWY 80. This is a system that needs to be watched close, as any unexpected increase in warm and moist air could cause big problems. Other parameters such as lift and wind shear will be very high across Alabama Sunday morning and early afternoon, so we need the lacking ingredient (instability) to remain low…

Alabama takes on Western Carolina for the homecoming game on Saturday at 3pm in Tuscaloosa. Expect temperatures to start off in the middle 60s at kickoff, then fall into the lower 60s at the end of the game. Expect an east or southeast breeze during game time, under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. At this time, rain is not expected for the game, but we’ll keep an eye on trends.

The air will get cooler again by Monday night and on Tuesday, with highs returning into the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Drought Downgrades from “Moderate” to “Abnormally Dry”…Thursday 4pm Drought Update #alwx

somerain

The map above is from the U.S. Drought Monitor. It looks like the rain we saw over the weekend helped the Tuscaloosa area downgrade from “moderate drought” to “abnormally dry.” Most of central Alabama received enough rain to downgrade, but parts of southern Alabama, including Mobile and Baldwin Counties, are only getting drier. Some places in eastern Alabama and southern Alabama are even considered to be in “severe drought.”

We’ve had close to 4 inches of rainfall in Tuscaloosa so far in November, much of that falling on Sunday and Monday of this week. We still have a 3.14 inch deficit. The total average rainfall for the year so far should be around 45.76 inches, but we’re only at 42.62 inches.

We’re also expecting some more rain to head into Alabama over the weekend. Many areas could see over an inch of rainfall between Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. That additional rainfall will continue to help balance out dry conditions.

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Caitlin Golden

WVUA Weather Intern

Warmer Days Ahead… Strong Storms this Weekend… Wednesday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Warnings_965

Good Wednesday afternoon! Most areas started off in the upper teens to low 20s this morning, then warmed well into the 50s this afternoon. With a full dose of sunshine and a retreating trough to our northeast, conditions were allowed to warm up some. We’ll continue to warm over the next few days, as the cold trough moves further away from Alabama. Expect highs to approach the 60 degree mark on Thursday. We can expect one more night with near freezing temperatures tonight, with a low near 32.

Clouds gradually move back in the area on Thursday and Friday, but we’ll still get some sunshine at times. Highs will reach the lower 60s on Friday, as moisture levels gradually come up some. Expect upper 30s Thursday night for lows, then lower 40s Friday night. I’ve still got a very low risk of a passing shower on Friday, but most areas will not get rain.

A very strong storm system will bring a good chance of rain and storms to the state late Saturday night and early on Sunday. If you have plans outdoors on Saturday, expect dry conditions for the day-time. The Alabama homecoming game will be dry at Bryant-Denny stadium. Highs will reach the middle 60s on Saturday, as warmer air gets pulled in out of the Gulf. With plenty of wind shear and uplift, we will need to watch this system very close for early on Sunday. Instability seems to be the lacking factor, so that should prevent major severe weather problems. That being said, any increase in instability in our area could mean the difference between a rain event and damaging winds/tornadoes.

A trough will build into the area on Monday and Tuesday, with falling temperatures to below average. This airmass won’t be as cold as what we just dealt with, but some chilly air will return to Alabama, especially on Tuesday.

Alabama takes on Western Carolina for the homecoming game on Saturday at 3pm in Tuscaloosa. Expect temperatures to start off in the middle 60s at kickoff, then fall into the lower 60s at the end of the game. Expect an east or southeast breeze during game time, under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. At this time, rain is not expected for the game, but we’ll keep an eye on trends.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Severe Weather This Weekend? Forecast Thoughts… Wednesday Update – 3:45pm #alwx

Warnings_967

Good Wednesday afternoon! There’s lots of talk already about an upcoming severe weather threat for parts of Alabama this weekend. First, there is still lots of time for changes, so keep checking with us each day this week and into the weekend for any sudden changes. The map above is a very early estimate of where there’s the higher potential for a few severe storms, but understand, this could change some. As you know, forecasting severe weather in Alabama can be tricky, especially several days out.

Why is there a risk? A very powerful storm system will move into the southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, pulling warm and moist air into a highly sheared environment. With a shortwave trough becoming negatively tilted just to our northwest, strong uplift and shear will move right over Alabama. The lacking factor is instability… If this same setup were to move through Alabama when instability is high, we would have a significant severe weather outbreak. Fortunately, the current cold and stable airmass has pushed well down into the Gulf, so it will take some time for higher instability levels to surge northward into the state. Some factors may prevent that from happening at all…

An area of high pressure to our east will keep our surface wind out of the east until Saturday evening, so that will keep the higher instability out over the Gulf. There may be a window where higher instability will pull northward into Alabama before the cold front arrives Sunday morning. Since models continue to hint this, so I’ve included areas generally south of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston in a risk of isolated wind damage and isolated tornadoes between 1am Sunday morning and noon on Sunday. Along and north of I-20, the atmosphere should be stable enough to prevent major issues. That being said, we will keep a very close eye on model trends over the next few days and make necessary forecast changes as needed. One big factor that would help prevent a risk of severe weather would be a complex of storms forming on the coast, blocking the inflow of the needed instability for severe storms. Some models are suggesting this could happen.

In late November, there’s often plenty of wind shear and uplift, but instability is typically a lacking factor. That being said, it only takes a small amount of instability in this setup to cause problems…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Warmer Days Ahead… Storms by Saturday Night… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4:45pm #alwx

Warnings_965

Good Tuesday afternoon! It has been a really cold Fall day across Alabama, with most areas only topping out in the 30s near and north of I-20, after a frigid start to the day. Temperatures tonight will get about 3 to 5 degrees colder tonight than we were lastnight. Expect areas near or north of I-20 to reach the upper teens tonight, with temperatures in the 18 to 20 degree range. Areas south of I-20 will drop into the 21 to 24 degree range, so take the cold weather precautions!

The upper air trough will start to move out of the area by mid to late week, which means a warming trend can be expected. After a very cold start to our Wednesday, afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 50s. Expect lots of sun on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 on Thursday.

Clouds will increase on Friday and Saturday, ahead of a strong storm system. Uplift from that feature will spread clouds back into the area both days, but I don’t expect any high rain chances until Saturday night and early Sunday. Forecast model data indicates heavy rain and storms will move through Alabama sometime after 9pm Saturday night and exit the area early Sunday morning. Some storms could be strong to severe, as some severe weather parameters are lining up. The big question will be the amount of instability. At this time, models suggest very limited instability, which would prevent any major issues. It will be something to watch in coming days, so keep checking back with us for details. I don’t expect any issues for the Homecoming Parade at the University of Alabama Saturday morning.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Very Cold Now… Slow Warming Trend… Monday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx

Warnings_965

Good Monday afternoon!

We all had a huge rain event across Alabama, with totals ranging from 1 inch on the low end to nearly 6 inches on the high end. Looking at these totals when compared with our rain deficit, it looks like most have caught up with the yearly average. Areas near I-20 picked up some of the highest totals in the state, with many getting 3 inches or higher. ….

Here are some of our weather watcher rain totals. I’ll be adding to this list later today:

Lisa Ann – Coaling: 5.70″

Brett Adair – Sylacauga: 4.62″

Shelly Morgan – Hugo (Marengo Co): 1.25″

Pat Hall – Butler (Choctaw Co): 2.00″

Tuscaloosa: 3.85″

Birmingham: 3.42″

Anniston: 4.55″

Matt Grantham – Pelham: 4.95″

Me – Northport: 4.05″

Sharon Glenn – Holt Lake: 4.06″

Donna Robinson – Akron: 4.25″

Steven Ray – Fosters: 4.75″

Steve Rigsby – Jasper: 3.00″

Ronald Hughes – Coker: 3.66″

Now the rain is gone, the big story is the nearly record breaking cold temperatures expected over the next 48 hours. Lows will drop well below freezing after sunset and remain below freezing until nearly noon tomorrow. Temperatures will dip into the lower 20s across most of the area, with a few upper teens over north Alabama. Highs will only reach the upper 30s on Tuesday, despite plenty of sunshine. Expect even colder air Tuesday night, with a low near 20 on average, with some areas north of I-20 dipping into the upper teens. Skies will remain clear…

The very deep upper air trough will gradually start to lift out of the area by mid to late week, which will allow temperatures to slowly modify. Highs on Wednesday will reach 50 in most areas. We’ll start off Thursday morning just below freezing, with a low near 30. Highs will warm into the upper 50s on Thursday and Friday. Clouds will increase on Friday, as a storm system takes shape to our west. There could be a few showers developing in the area on Friday, but the risk of rain is fairly low at this time.

Saturday looks dry for the most part, but I can’t rule out a shower during the day, as highs warm into the lower 60s. A storm system will reach Alabama Saturday night and early Sunday, with a round of rain and storms. Some storms may become strong or severe, but instability is still very much in question. With this system being several days out, it will take a little more time to iron out the details.

Temperatures may reach 70 on Sunday before the main cold front reaches Alabama. Another round of showers and storms will likely form ahead of the main frost sometime late Sunday or on Monday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 5,097 other followers