April 24, 2014 Leave a comment
Good Thursday evening! I just wanted to share some quick thoughts on next week’s system. There’s lots of buzz on the streets that suggest this event will be like April 27th… First off, we don’t compare events until they have ended and we get the storm surveys back from the National Weather Service. It’s just irresponsible to suggest this event is going to be like a historic event in our past, when we’re still this far out. As we get closer, we will be able to fine-tune the time line and what exactly will happen. It’s just a little too early to know that just yet.
Here’s what we know so far. A very strong storm system will produce severe weather to our west on Saturday and Sunday. Tornadoes, wind damage and hail look to be a big risk west of Alabama, as a slow moving storm system progresses east. Several waves of energy and uplift will rotate into our area starting on Monday and ending by Tuesday night.
The first wave early Monday morning will likely fizzle out somewhere over west Alabama or east Mississippi. I’m not concerned with severe weather early Monday morning, as the best shear and dynamics will be well west of the state. A second wave of energy will track into Alabama Monday evening and Monday night. This will bring a good chance of rain and storms, with some storms becoming severe. Wind shear isn’t all that extreme, but it appears high enough to cause a risk of tornadoes, wind damage and hail. There could also be some flooding with this system. Most models agree that we’ll catch a break in the action as this bit of energy lifts out of the area. If we can catch a large enough of a break in the rain and clouds Tuesday morning, we may have time for the atmosphere to destabilize for our final wave of energy.
The final area of uplift will pass through Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will once again bring the risk of wind damage, hail, tornadoes and flooding. The severity of this event will depend on how much surface heating we can get before the uplift gets to Alabama.
The bottom line… Keep a close eye on any forecasting changes over the next few days, as we deal with atleast a risk of severe weather across parts of Alabama. In the next couple of days, we’ll really nail down what you can expect here. My hope is that model data backs off some of our severe weather ingredients, and this just turns into a rain event. Please make sure you have a source of severe weather information both Monday and on Tuesday…
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