Storms Ending… Hot Days Ahead… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4:40pm

Good Tuesday afternoon! Our weather has turned out stormy for many areas this afternoon, as a slow moving cold front moves through Alabama. The front, as of 4:40pm, is located near I-20. As the weak cold front moves south of our area, storms will gradually end this evening and tonight. In-fact, storms have ended already for areas north of I-20. The rest of the area should be dry by 8 or 9pm. Drier air will take over night, and humidity levels will fall just a touch late tonight and on Wednesday. Look for lows in the upper 60s north of I-20 tonight and lower 70s south of I-20.

Wednesday is looking hot and dry. Dewpoints will fall into the middle 60s, which will be a slight relief compared to the muggy weather today. There is still a chance of a passing afternoon storm or two on Wednesday and Thursday, but the risk is rather low. Most areas will remain dry through Thursday, with the best chance of a passing storm happening south of I-20. Highs will reach the lower 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will fall into the middle to upper 60s Wednesday night.

Humidity will increase later this week and over the weekend, which will make conditions feel very hot on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Highs will remain in the lower 90s, but heat index values will reach the upper 90s. A passing afternoon storm or two is possible, but rain chances may have to be bumped up over the weekend. Model data is a little iffy on the next system, so keep an eye on any forecasting changes. At this point, I expect the chance of a few afternoon storms over the weekend, but not a total washout.

We’re still watching things in the tropics at this hour. Tropical Depression # 2 is still hanging in there according to the National Hurricane Center. There is a chance it could become Tropical Storm Barry as it moves into the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. There is no chance of US impacts from this storm…

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Hot Days…Storms…Tropical Action… – Monday Forecast Update 4:30pm

Good Monday afternoon! We’re looking at lots of storms on radar as of 4:30pm, with a couple reaching severe limits this afternoon. The chance of additional severe weather is unlikely for the rest of the day, but we’ll keep an eye on radar trends. The storms are cooling the air over much of west Alabama, so the storms should gradually weaken over the next few hours. East Alabama will continue to deal with strong storms through 8pm. After that, east Alabama storms should gradually weaken. There is still a chance of rain overnight, but the risk should remain scattered to isolated. If you are outdoors and a storm moves your way, go inside! Lightning will remain very intense with the storms that develo, which is pretty typical for summer storms.

A cold front and surface low is passing near Alabama this afternoon, which has helped increase the number of storms on radar. We’ll notice another uptick in rain and storms on Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon. Once we get the afternoon heating started, storms will become numerous. It will not rain all day; in-fact, most spots will only see rain for an hour and then dry weather for the rest of the day. Remember your lightning safety plans through Tuesday!

The surface cold front will move through Alabama Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which will allow a surge of drier air to reach the area on Wednesday and Thursday. I can’t rule out a storm or two both days, but the risk is much lower. Don’t expect any colder air this time of the year behind the front… Highs will reach the lower 90s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, with lows in the lower 70s. A few afternoon storms will become possible each day on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The tropics have become rather active today, with the development of Tropical Depression # 2. This system will move into Belize over the next few hours and then spend a few days over land. If the low makes it’s track over land, it could re-develop into a tropical storm over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. After that, the storm will quickly move into Mexico, with no US impacts…

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
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Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Severe T-storm Warning for Lamar, Pickens, Fayette Co until 5pm Monday

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
 SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA… NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 417 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REFORM…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT  30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…  MILLPORT…FAYETTE…KENNEDY…ASHCRAFT CORNER…BELK…BLOOMING
  GROVE…BANKSTON AND BERRY.

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE…ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
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Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Tropical Depression # 2 Has Formed… Monday Update 12:40pm

Good Monday midday to you! We’ve got some new information from the National Hurricane Center. Looks like Tropical Depression # 2 has formed in the western Caribbean. Good news… This system will not impact Alabama. Here’s the latest from the NHC:

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.   THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvu

Good Chance of Rain Storms Monday and Tuesday – Sunday Evening Forecast Update 9:05 PM

As expected, most of the area stayed dry today with just a few hit or miss showers and storms popping up during the late afternoon hours. For now, the radar remains relatively quiet across west Alabama, but heavy storms persist across east Alabama. But, some changes are about to start happening weather wise.

Overall troughiness develops over the eastern half of the country tomorrow, and individual pieces of energy/vorticity will be moving through this trough throughout Monday and Tuesday. What this will mean for our area is periods of showers and storms possible each day, but I don’t think it will be a total washout. A few storms could become strong, but no organized severe weather is expected at this time. Highs each afternoon will stay in check–in the mid to upper 80s.

The forecast confidence for Wednesday remains low as the models are struggling to converge on a solution. The Euro keeps the front around Highway 80, while the GFS pushes it farther south. The WSI 12km RPM model also shows this scenario, but the NAM agrees with the Euro in keeping the front stalled closer to central sections of Alabama. I will use a blend of all of the models for this forecast; higher rain chances should remain south of I-20 for Wednesday, but again I cannot rule out a shower or storm anywhere across the area.

We trend towards average rain chances/temperatures toward week’s end. Highs should be right around 90 degrees with just the garden variety, popcorn afternoon storms each day for Thursday through the weekend. The good news is that I’m not seeing any excessive heat signals in the model data, which is a relief for now given that the first official day of Summer is Friday.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

Rain Chances Beginning to Increase – Saturday Evening Forecast Update 8:45 PM

We’ve enjoyed a nice weekend thus far: lots of sunshine and warm temperatures across the area. But, some changes are about to start happening. You may have noticed it feeling just a bit muggier today, and I think that trend continues over the next several days as a southerly flow develops. I think at least the first half of your Father’s Day Sunday will remain dry, but clouds will increase steadily through the afternoon and a few showers are possible by the afternoon and evening. I don’t think the coverage or intensity will be overly high, but be aware of a few passing showers across the area tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

A broad trough of low pressure establishes itself mainly over the eastern half of the country by the first part of next week. Individual short wave troughs embedded within the larger trough will move across the area at times throughout Monday and Tuesday, so periods of showers and storms are possible both days. I don’t think it rains all day each day, but you will definitely need the rain gear handy. Also, an isolated strong storm or two is possible but at this time we are not expecting any organized severe weather.

The forecast confidence begins to decrease a little as we head into mid-week. The GFS wants to bring the front on through our area, thus ending rain chances at least for Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Euro hangs up the front across central Alabama, meaning rain could linger into Wednesday. For now, we trended the forecast toward the Euro because the GFS sometimes has a tendency to move frontal boundaries too quickly. I do think by the end of the week into the weekend though, we’ll be down to just the isolated popcorn variety storms during the afternoon with highs right around average levels–90.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

Enjoy the Weekend…More Rain Chances to Start Next Week – Friday Evening Forecast Update 9 PM

Broad high pressure at the surface will remain in control of our weather pattern at least for one more day, as a easterly flow persists. But, it will be quite warm for your Saturday with a few passing clouds as highs get up into the l0w 90s for most locations. The humidity will still remain relatively low, but you will start to notice the increase in moisture by tomorrow afternoon. By  Sunday, a southerly flow will have established itself, ushering in more moisture and clouds across the area. I think a few showers and storms are possible by Sunday evening, but I think a better chance of rain comes in here for the start of next week.

I think several short wave troughs will move across the area starting on Monday as a west to northwesterly flow prevails. With moisture present and its interaction with these pieces of energy, scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms will be possible for both Monday and Tuesday. Some of the storms on Tuesday could become strong, but at this time no organized severe weather is expected. And with the increased clouds, highs should cool off just a touch into the upper 80s.

Some of the latest guidance suggests the frontal boundary responsible for Monday and Tuesday’s storms will shift south of our area by Wednesday afternoon. A few lingering storms are possible, mainly along and south of Highway 80 on Wednesday, but it’s looking like we may can decrease the rain chances if future guidance supports this idea. But moisture returns via a southerly flow for the end of the week, so a few passing showers or storms are possible by that timeframe.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

Storms Ending This Eve… Dry and Sunny Start to the Weekend… Thursday PM Weather Update – 9:30pm

Good Thursday evening! As of 9:30pm, storms were ending from north to south across west and central Alabama. Areas south of Tuscaloosa will deal with the chance of storms through 11pm before our entire area goes dry tonight. Skies will gradually become clear as dry air takes over from the north. Look for temperatures to reach the middle 60s before sunrise Friday morning.

Friday looks like a great weather day. While it will get rather hot during the afternoon hours, the lack of humidity will make conditions feel fair. Expect lots of sun for Friday and Saturday, as a surface high hangs out nearby. A south wind will take over on Sunday and Monday, so humidity will return. Look for a chance of a stray shower or storm Sunday afternoon, with a better chance of scattered storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will continue in the lower 90s, with lows warming into the lower 70s by Saturday night and Sunday night. The best chance of storms early next week will happen during the peak heating hours between lunch and 8pm.

The tropics are rather calm at this time. There a couple of tropical waves we’re watching, but I don’t see any sign of development over the next few days.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Good News… Severe Risk Looking Lower This Eve… – Thursday Update 6:30pm

Good Thursday evening! As of 6:30pm, scattered strong storms along the cold front were lined up from Vernon to Jasper to Gadsden. These storms were moving south southeast at 40mph. Look for the risk of a storm or two reaching severe limits, but most storms are in the strong range and not severe. I think there will be some pockets of isolated wind damage and large hail this evening as the storms push across the area.

Not everyone will get heavy rain out of this, but some areas will get a quick downpour. If a storm moves over your area, it won’t last longer than an hour, as they continue to push south. Storms will reach the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham areas around 8pm and the HWY 80 area between 9pm and 10pm.

Again, this looks like a low end risk now, but stay alert incase a severe storm moves over your area.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

5:30pm Radar Check… Few Strong to Severe Storms This Eve – Thursday

As of 5:30pm, we’re watching a broken line of storms move from north to south across our area. At that point, storms were in the Hamilton to Haleyville to Cullman areas, but they will reach the Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston areas between 7pm and 8pm. Since the line has slowed some, it’s taking a tad longer to reach most of the area. The broken line will pass south of HWY 80 in the 8pm to 9pm time-frame.

The threats will include damaging winds and large hail, but the risk of organized severe weather is looking low. I expect a few severe thunderstorm warnings over the next few hours, but they should be scattered. Some areas may not get a drop, but other areas will get a soaking. Either way, the storms won’t last that long in one area. If a severe storm moves over you, it may last up to 1 hour before moving south of you.

Dry and clear skies are expected overnight tonight and on Friday…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
Twitter: Richard_wvua