Tropical Update… Monday Update – 3:45pm

Here’s a note from the National Hurricane Center in regards to the tropical low just east of Florida:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low pressure east of Florida.

1. Updated:  An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east of Melbourne, Florida.  While the low is well defined, the associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories. Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development, and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained winds with the low are about 30-35 mph.  The low is moving southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.  A turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist