Thursday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:45 PM

A good Thursday to you! It’s the last day or March, as April begins tomorrow. Its felt a little more like the end of February than the end of March, with many places staying in the 50s today; in-fact, Birmingham stayed in the 40s for much of the day. Some sun made a return earlier, but an upper air disturbance is bringing in more clouds this afternoon. Rain is showing up over parts of Arkansas and western Mississippi, but this disturbance will be weakening, so our rain chances will remain fairly low. Some of us will get a little light rain after dark, but rain totals will be less than 1/10^th of an inch.

Sunshine will return tomorrow afternoon, as the upper air disturbance moves eastward and out of our area. Temperatures will begin a gradual warming trend tomorrow afternoon. Highs should top out somewhere in the middle 60s. Temperatures will remain cool at night, with 40s expected tonight, Friday night and Saturday night. As ridging builds in from the southwest, temperatures will continue to warm over the weekend. Highs will top out in the lower 70s on Saturday with a sunny sky. Low 80s are possible on Monday, with increasing clouds again. A strong south wind will transport lots of moisture and heat in here on Sunday and Monday. This will be just in time for a big storm system that’s due in here on Tuesday.

As for Tuesday’s storm system, there is a risk of severe storms. This is several days out, so things could change. The big questions include timing and strength of the low. If this activity comes in here Tuesday afternoon, during peak heating hours, we could have a significant April severe weather outbreak. If the storms arrive during the early morning hours, then the severe weather threat will be bit lower. With many of our severe weather ingredients coming together, I think we’ll have some big issues with active severe storms. The main threats include large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. We’ll fine-tune the forecast through the weekend. Make sure you go through your severe weather plans now, so you’ll be ready to act in the case of severe storms.

A quick pop of cooler air arrives on Wednesday and Thursday, but the cooler air will be short lived. The trough responsible for bringing storms and cooler air will be progressive and will quickly push eastward.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV today at 5, 6, and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com