Sunday Night Thoughts, 10:45pm, Severe Storms Monday 3pm – 11pm… #alwx @wvua23

318 Blog SPC

At 10:45pm, all is quiet across Alabama. We have a few ongoing showers and some areas of drizzle, but severe weather is not expected overnight. Expect mild and muggy conditions tonight and into the day on Monday.

Most of Monday will be dry; in-fact, midday and the early afternoon may feature some sunshine and very warm spring conditions as the cap holds. As uplift increases during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a surface low and approaching front, expect scattered storms to erupt across the area. Keep in mind, storms will be scattered, so some of you will just have a warm and nice day while others deal with a passing severe storm. This event will move through really fast, as we’ll likely deal with a broken line of supercell type storms quickly pass from west to east across the area. By 11pm, the risk of severe storms will have ended across our area.

What time: At 3pm to 4pm, scattered supercell storms will develop over west or northwest Alabama, then spread east and southeast through the late afternoon and evening hours. By 7pm, storms should be very close to I-59. By 11pm, the broken line of severe storms will be pushing out of east Alabama and into Georiga.

What modes of severe weather: Expect the main risk to be in the form of large hail, with some hail up to tennis ball size possible, especially over northern Alabama. There is also a risk of damaging downdraft winds with the storms that develop. Isolated tornadoes may also become a risk, especially for the northern half of Alabama.

Where: The higher risk of severe weather will be in areas northeast of Tuscaloosa, where an enhanced risk of severe weather has been posted. Northern Alabama stands the higher risk of isolated tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. Keep in mind, all of Alabama is in a severe risk, but the risk will be more limited or isolated south of HWY 80.

We’ll watch things carefully Monday afternoon and evening! If a tornado watch is issued, you can join us live at the top and bottom of each hour for updates. If a tornado warning is issued, you can join on WVUA23 for non-stop coverage and online at wvua23.com. There’s a live severe weather stream option under the weather tab. Here’s the link: http://wvua23.com/severe-weather-happening-now-live-stream/

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Advertisements

Severe Storms on Monday… Forecast Update Sunday 7 PM #ALwx @wvua23

318 Forecast

Good Sunday evening! We’ve been monitoring the forecast closely for tomorrow, with severe weather expected. Here are the new and updated details for Monday and your forecast for the week beyond.

Overnight/Monday AM:

Scattered showers continue this evening across Central Alabama, with temperatures steady around 60 degrees. This will continue overnight, with another round of heavy  rain (but no severe storms) moving through. The longer these rain showers last, the more stable the atmosphere will be tomorrow, so this is an important factor into tomorrows storms.

Monday PM:

With some clearing possible in the late morning hours, by lunchtime it is expected to be partly cloudy with the sun breaking through. The more heating that occurs tomorrow early afternoon, will setup the atmosphere for stronger storms in the evening hours.

318 Blog SPC

As of Sunday night, Central Alabama is under an “Enhanced” Level 3 Risk for severe storms for Monday. The storms could begin as early as 3 PM and last until 11 PM, as they form near Tuscaloosa and move east across the state. General convection is most likely north of Birmingham, but any storms that do form along I-20 or south still have the environment to produce large hail or a tornado.

All modes of severe weather are possible tomorrow, including some tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

TUESDAY:

Clearing will take place overnight Monday, but Tuesday will have more scattered showers across the region, especially in the morning and early afternoon. By Tuesday night we will be clearing out and setting up for a nice week.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:

Temperatures will be cool on Wednesday despite abundant sunshine. Temperatures will increase each day, and by the weekend we’ll have highs in the mid to upper 70s. Next weekend seems to not support much rainfall, but some scattered showers are possible on Saturday.

We will have live coverage tomorrow on WVUA 23 News if there are any tornado warnings for Central Alabama. Remember that you can always join us live on weekdays at 5, 6, and 10 P.M. and weekends at 10 P.M. for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Jacob Lanier
Twitter: @JacobLanierWx
Facebook: Meteorologist Jacob Lanier

Severe Weather Update – Sunday AM #ALwx @wvua23

Good Sunday morning! With cloud cover increasing and showers moving in from the west, we are setting up for an active two days of weather for Alabama. Here is an update on today and tomorrow’s severe weather risks for Central Alabama.

AL_swody1 (1)

SUNDAY:

Showers will be slowly moving into Alabama as we head into the afternoon. Tuscaloosa and areas to the south are under a Level 2 “Slight” risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast guidance suggests that the strongest storms will stay in South Alabama. Still, the slight risk for damaging straight line winds and some large hail exists this afternoon if one of the stronger storms is able to break off from the main system to our south. We’ll be monitoring these storms this evening, but areas north and east of Tuscaloosa will likely only see scattered showers.

AL_swody2

MONDAY:

Monday afternoon, moist and unstable air will be moving north across Alabama which will set the stage for the potential for severe thunderstorms. Higher instability will be in the southern portion of the risk area, with higher wind shear in the northern portion. This split of the ingredients & early morning rain will make the severe event in the afternoon/evening very conditional on how the atmosphere recovers and heats through the day Monday. Of course, we’ll be monitoring those changes throughout today and tomorrow and will provide updates to timing, threat, and location. As of now, here are the details for tomorrow…

TIMING: 2 PM to 11 PM will be the time frame for the strongest storms in Central Alabama.

THREATS: Tomorrow’s storms will have the environment to produce damaging winds and large hail. These risks will be in the strongest storms across north/central Alabama.

Tornadoes will be possible tomorrow, but the conditions most likely for tornadoes will be to the Northwest of Tuscaloosa, centered over the Gadsden and Huntsville areas. But, because of the conditional setup for tomorrow, a tornado cannot be ruled out in areas in the “Level 1/Slight” Risk, including Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

Join us live tonight on WVUA 23 at 10 P.M. for the latest details on tomorrow’s severe threat & weekdays at 5, 6, and 10 P.M. for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Jacob Lanier
Twitter: @JacobLanierWx
Facebook: Meteorologist Jacob Lanier