Irma To Impact Alabama Weather Monday. Sunday Forecast Update, 5:30pm. #wxal @wvua23

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It was a great day weather-wise across central Alabama. Highs were in the 80’s and a nice breeze made for great feeling conditions. Tonight, that breeze will stick around as clouds start to build in. In the early morning hours we will start to see rain move into central Alabama as Irma moves inland. Once Irma moves into central Alabama, we will experience showers and storms, as well as very windy conditions. See the following three paragraphs below on full details about impacts from Irma, specifically for Monday.

Our far eastern counties (Blount, St.Clair, Talladega, Coosa, Clay, Calhoun, Etowah, and Cherokee) will see rain totals that could approach 3.5 inches by Wednesday. Localized flooding could occur, so keep this in mind. Peak wind gusts will approach 60mph, especially for areas around Gadsden. Sustained winds, will remain only in the lower 40’s though. Peak wind gusts of around 60mph will knock power out, but widespread power-outages are not likely. As for structural damage, some buildings could lose shingles, but that is about the extent of damage unless some other form of severe weather causes this (which is not likely).

Looking into the centralized area of central Alabama (Winston, Cullman, Walker, Jefferson, Shelby, Bibb, Chilton, and portions of Tuscaloosa and Perry counties), the previously stated forecasted potentials are reduced. Rainfall totals will range between 2 and 3 inches across this area. Localized flooding is still possible, but less likely. Since the rain will fall slowly over a gradual time, flooding just isn’t very likely. Normally flooding for Alabama is bad when these amounts are seen in a very short period of time. Instead, these rainfall totals will come over a course of at least two days. Sustained winds in this region will range between 25 and 40mph. Wind gusts could peak between 40 and 50mph. This lower wind speeds and gust peaks mean that power outages here will be less likely, but there will still, mostly likely, be some here. Structural damage will be far less likely, unless a separate form of severe weather occurs (which doesn’t seem likely).

For western central Alabama (Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Greene, Hale, Sumter, Marengo, and Perry counties) rainfall totals and winds will be even less. In western Alabama, rainfall totals will range between 1 and 2 inches, which will likely not cause flooding issues. This amount of rain will come at too slow a span of time to cause flooding issues. Perhaps just a few low laying areas here could see some flooding issues. Sustained winds here will range between 20 and 30 mph. Peak wind gusts will be between 30 and 40mph. Since these winds are so much weaker, power outages in western Alabama are not likely, but a few isolated instances could occur. No real structural damages could occur either, unless a separate form of severe weather should take place (which doesn’t seem likely).

Tuesday will hold mainly showers, rather than showers and storms, but the breezy conditions will continue (not to the same scale we will see Monday). Temperatures will be very cool with winds out of the north and little sunshine for daytime heating. Wednesday will hold some peeks of sunshine as we see a few lingering showers remain from Irma, which will be a depression at this point. Winds by Wednesday will also be calming down. Thursday will be mostly dry, besides a few stray showers. We will see more sun that afternoon. That should help bring our highs back into the 80’s,

Friday and next weekend will be sunny and mild. We will be on a slow warming trend the three days after seeing the remains from Irma leaving Alabama late Thursday. By Sunday, we will be experiencing toastier conditions.

Besides Irma moving up the Florida coast now, we have two tropical systems.

Jose is a category three hurricane right now. It has weakened from yesterday since the storm is currently dealing with shear. In the next several days, the storm is expected to continue dealing with shear. This means we will likely see further de-intensification. Current projections show the storms doing a full loop in the Atlantic as a high builds in to its south to first send it northward. Then, during the process of that high breaking down and a new ridge developing north of it to push it east, south, then back to a westward track. Eventually, models show Jose being picked up by a mid-level trough over the Atlantic and send it back out into the Atlantic. For this reason we are not currently concerned about this storm, but we will continue to monitor it.

Off the coast of Africa is a new tropical complex that will likely develop into a more organized storm in the coming days. Good news is though, it will quickly be pushed northward, further into the Atlantic.

Reggie Roakes

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Irma’s Impacts On Central Alabama (Forecast for Monday AM-Wednesday AM). #wxal @wvua23

Irma’s landfall in Naples, Florida means all eyes are now on where the storm will travel inland. Since last night, models have not really changed the trajectory of Irma’s remains when they arrive to central Alabama, but how soon. Irma is now expected to move into central Alabama starting early tomorrow morning. Because of the faster track, the storm will also be slightly stronger than originally thought when it arrives for central Alabama.

The first thing to keep in mind with this forecast blog is that winds of 35 mph are normal for Alabama during many gust fronts, and frontal boundary systems that bring storms to us throughout most of the year. That said, west Alabama will be receiving the least amount of the grunt from Irma between Monday morning and Wednesday morning.

Our far eastern counties (Blount, St.Clair, Talladega, Coosa, Clay, Calhoun, Etowah, and Cherokee) will see rain totals that could approach 3.5 inches by Wednesday. Localized flooding could occur, so keep this in mind. Peak wind gusts will approach 60mph, especially for areas around Gadsden. Sustained winds, will remain only in the lower 40’s though. Peak wind gusts of around 60mph will knock power out, but widespread power-outages are not likely. As for structural damage, some buildings could lose shingles, but that is about the extent of damage unless some other form of severe weather causes this (which is not likely).

Looking into the centralized area of central Alabama (Winston, Cullman, Walker, Jefferson, Shelby, Bibb, Chilton, and portions of Tuscaloosa and Perry counties), the previously stated forecasted potentials are reduced. Rainfall totals will range between 2 and 3 inches across this area. Localized flooding is still possible, but less likely. Since the rain will fall slowly over a gradual time, flooding just isn’t very likely. Normally flooding for Alabama is bad when these amounts are seen in a very short period of time. Instead, these rainfall totals will come over a course of at least two days. Sustained winds in this region will range between 25 and 40mph. Wind gusts could peak between 40 and 50mph. This lower wind speeds and gust peaks mean that power outages here will be less likely, but there will still, mostly likely, be some here. Structural damage will be far less likely, unless a separate form of severe weather occurs (which doesn’t seem likely).

For western central Alabama (Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Greene, Hale, Sumter, Marengo, and Perry counties) rainfall totals and winds will be even less. In western Alabama, rainfall totals will range between 1 and 2 inches, which will likely not cause flooding issues. This amount of rain will come at too slow a span of time to cause flooding issues. Perhaps just a few low laying areas here could see some flooding issues. Sustained winds here will range between 20 and 30 mph. Peak wind gusts will be between 30 and 40mph. Since these winds are so much weaker, power outages in western Alabama are not likely, but a few isolated instances could occur. No real structural damages could occur either, unless a separate form of severe weather should take place (which doesn’t seem likely).

Reggie Roakes

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