Mild Labor Day. Sunday Forecast Update, 7pm. @wvua23 #wxal

7 Day -SHELTON STATE Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.pngGood Sunday evening!It was a great day weather-wise across central Alabama. We had plenty of sunshine besides just a few clouds. Temperatures were a bit mild, but lower humidity made them tolerable. Tonight, that lower humidity will help with making a pleasant evening. Skies will remain clear as lows drop into the 60’s.

Labor Day will be packed with plenty of sunshine besides a few clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will be pretty warm though with some seeing highs knocking at the 90° mark. Humidity will still be lower, though, so it will still be bearable. After Monday, the forecast will really start to change.

Tuesday we see an incoming trough making an arrival later in the day. Starting the morning off, we will see sunshine. Humidity will be back up unfortunately due to warm air advection from the Gulf. In the afternoon, we will start to see clouds building in and a few isolated showers and storms are possible. Later that afternoon and into the overnight hours, the trough will be pushing into the state sparking numerous passing thunderstorms that will last through the overnight hours. Increased clouds overnight should keep lows a little mild in the upper 60’s. As we go into Wednesday, some of that rain will be lingering, especially for those south of I-20. By lunchtime that day, skies will either be clear, or be clearing as cold air advection takes place and drier air moves in. Highs that day will be the coolest we’ve seen in quite some time thanks to that trough. It will be a nice tease of what Fall will bring.

For the rest of the work week and next weekend, temperatures will be on a slow warming trend. Each day will be slightly warmer than the other. The first few nights after the trough moves through will be very cool with clear skies. Once we start to move into next weekend, we will start to see weather similar to what we’ve had this weekend so far.

Turning to the tropics-

Tropical Close Up VIS Storm NHC Track2.pngIrma is continuing to track toward the west through the Atlantic. It is soon to be pushed slightly southward thanks to a strong high in the Atlantic. As this happens, the storm will move into slightly more favorable waters than it has been experiencing the past two days that has stunted growth. In the next several days we could see Irma strengthen into a cat. 4 hurricane that will bring very hostile conditions to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Since we are still so far out, there is still a lot of uncertainties on where exactly the storm will go. The main note to know is that models mostly all agree on a sharp northward shift in track down the road as it approaches the U.S. as it gets steered by a trough that will pass through us the middle of this work week.

1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by
the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for
portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical
storm watches may be required on Monday. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the
progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical
storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.
-National Hurricane Center

For the rest of the tropics, there are two points of interest. One is located in the Gulf of Mexico and is associated with a small band of disorganized storms. Conditions will remain very hostile for this complex and development is not expected with it. The second point of interest is located behind Irma in the Atlantic right now. Conditions are favorable for this storm to further develop into a more complex tropical system in the coming days; however, development will be slow due to dry air and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures. We will continue to watch this storm over the next several days. For now, no worries exist with it since it is still a very long distance away.

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Reggie Roakes
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