Clouds For Monday. Harvey Keeps Pouring On Texas. Invest 92 On The East Coast. Sunday Forecast Update, 6:45 pm. #wxal @wvua23

7 Day -SHELTON STATE Forecast - Offset Lows - PM

Good Sunday evening! Today was a close fought battle between thick upper level cirrus and sunshine throughout the day which made for slightly gloomier weather. It did help provide “somewhat” cooler weather, but it was still pretty muggy with mid-70 dew-points. Tonight, plan on the pretty muggy air mass to stay in place to make for a mild evening with a fair amount of clouds thanks to an upper level trough bringing winds in from the west where there is a lot of water vapor present in the air. We will remain mostly dry though because we are getting winds coming from the east at the surface from a low pressure system that is developing over Florida right now. Expect lows to be in the lower 70’s. Tomorrow will start the work week off mostly dry since the surface low to our east will be pushing dry air in; however, I feel like some of west Alabama, including areas like Tuscaloosa, Reform, Gordo, Jasper, and Lamar could see a few small, isolated pop-up showers since they will be on the boundary between the dry surface air mass and the more saturated air mass caused by Harvey to the west.

Tuesday will also be mostly dry besides some isolated storms across central Alabama, similar to Monday since it will be almost the same weather patterns. Wednesday, though, will see a surface high developing in the Gulf behind the surface low that will be moving up along the coast and turning into our next tropical storm for the United States. The development of that surface high will cause clockwise rotation around it while Harvey will be SLOWLY creeping toward the north northeast with counter clockwise rotation about it. Alabama will be stuck just north of the center point between these two circulations so winds will be out of the south bringing with them a very saturated air mass. Just to the north of Alabama will be a stalled upper-level trough that will provide lift to the air mass. That said, plan on a decent amount of passing showers and storms in the afternoons through the remainder of the work week. Rain chances will be higher during the day than at night, but some showers will last through the overnight hours.

Next weekend is still a bit of a tough forecast… the two long scale models, the GFS and the Euro, are in debate on what exactly will happen. The Euro now wants to bring Harvey across the southeast which would eventually bring our rain-chances down. Meanwhile, the GFS wants to just barely bring Harvey to the north northeast. That set-up would keep rain-chances up since Alabama would still be stuck in that pump like flow between it and the surface high to the east. For now plan on rain chances to remain about the same as the later work week with numerous passing showers and storms likely.

Looking to the tropics-

Harvey has still barely budged since yesterday. Much of the coast of Texas, including the major populated city of Houston, are experiencing unprecedented flooding issues (some areas are already seeing totals of almost 30 inches). Countless numbers of people are currently having to be rescued from homes and vehicles because they have nowhere to go and are trapped. The scariest part of this situation is that even more rain is coming since Harvey shows no sign of moving, at least within the next two days. The death-toll from Harvey still remains at one victim for now. Models are battling on where Harvey will go and when. The European model normally does a fair job and it is now starting to bring the storm east northeast starting Wednesday to finally start giving Texas a break. Many other models still want to keep the storm centered there until next weekend though.

rain tot

The complex of storms that were being referred to as Invest-92 last week before Harvey took the spotlight are now starting to slowly organize themselves. That system will start to shift northward just off the east coast of Florida and Georgia since the upper level trough will be pushing against it. South and North Carolina’s coasts might see some impacts from this storm from showers and storms and rough waters along the coast since the storm will either come very close or make impact with them. Right now, models do not show the storm strengthening much since it will be battling with the trough. Since it will be on the Gulf Stream though, strengthening will still take place and we could see our next tropical storms developing if models are correct.


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Reggie Roakes
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