Devastatinsg Hurricane Harvey Makes Landfall… Local Forecast Update 10pm Friday #alwx @wvua23

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Good Friday evening! As of 9:45pm, Hurricane Harvey has made landfall just north of Port Aransas, Texas, with the eye moving into the Rockport area. At the time of landfall, winds were sustained at 130mph, making this a category 4 storm. Pressure was at 938mb at landfall… This is the 1st major hurricane to make landfall in the US since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This hurricane has ended the longest major US hurricane drought in recorded history.

We are getting numerous reports of homes being damaged and destroyed by the destructive winds of Harvey, especially in the Rockport area. We will find out just how bad the devastation from the wind portion of the storm was after sunrise tomorrow.

Harvey will become stationary later tonight and produce 20 to 30 inches of rain between Corpus Christi and Houston and areas surrounding those cities between now and Tuesday. The flooding will be likely more extreme than what Tropical Storm Allison produced back in 2001.

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Our local weather will be quiet through the weekend, but skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. I expect a stray shower or two to develop on radar, but widespread rain is unlikely.

Rain chances will increase next week, as moisture from the leftovers of Harvey get pulled northeast into Alabama. Unless data changes the path of Harvey, it appears unlikely that our area experiences any flooding issues from the storm.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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6pm: Harvey Now Category 4! #alwx @wvua23

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Hurricane hunters find that Harvey is strengthening, as it approaches landfall. Winds are sustained at 130mph with higher gusts. Landfall will occur before midnight tonight just northeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening
storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas
coast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of
the warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

Life-Threatening Hurricane Harvey Approaching Texas Coast… Friday Update – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

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Winds are now up to 125mph with Hurricane Harvey as it approaches land. Pressure continues to fall and winds continue to increase. Landfall will occur tonight along the middle Texas coast. Here’s a detailed update from the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Despite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey’s winds have
increased during the day.  NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt
and SFMR winds to 102 kt.  Based on these data, Harvey’s maximum
surface winds are estimated to be 110 kt.  Harvey’s central pressure
has also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on
dropsonde data is 941 mb.

Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt.  Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight.  After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours.  In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period.  As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week.  This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.

Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength.  Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey’s slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate.  As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast.  Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening
storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas
coast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of
the warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 27.5N  96.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 28.2N  97.0W  100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
24H  26/1800Z 28.8N  97.5W   75 KT  85 MPH…INLAND
36H  27/0600Z 28.9N  97.8W   60 KT  70 MPH…INLAND
48H  27/1800Z 28.6N  97.8W   50 KT  60 MPH…INLAND
72H  28/1800Z 28.1N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH…INLAND
96H  29/1800Z 28.5N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H  30/1800Z 29.5N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH…INLAND

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Harvey’s Looming Disaster… Important Notes from the NHC as of 10:45am Friday #alwx @wvua23

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Good Friday morning! Above is the visible satellite of Harvey, as the storm slowly approaches the Texas coast. Take a moment to read the discussion below from the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Multiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey’s structure is
evolving this morning. The hurricane has developed concentric
eyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler radars in
Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of 12 and
28 n mi. The aircraft data indicate that the central pressure has
continued to fall–now down to 947 mb–but the maximum winds have
not increased further. This discrepancy is not surprising given
hurricane’s current structure.

Intensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops
concentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more
likely. If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey’s intensity
could decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field
increases in size. However, the hurricane remains in an environment
for intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity
is still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end,
the hurricane’s exact intensity at landfall does not change the
fact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.

Harvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/9 kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the
western United States is still expected to impede Harvey’s forward
motion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show
the hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the
Texas coast in 36-48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly
eastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at
this time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
tonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations should be
rushed to completion in the warning areas as tropical-storm-force
winds are arriving on the coast, and conditions will continue to
deteriorate through the rest of today and tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 26.7N 96.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.6N 96.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.4N 97.3W 90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0000Z 28.8N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 28.3N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND