Showers & Storms Monday. Updates On Tropics. Sunday Forecast, 6:35pm. #wxal @wvua23

7 Day -SHELTON STATE Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.png

Good Sunday evening and Happy Father’s Day! We’ve seen showers and storms scattered across central Alabama for most of the day. There are currently more scattered showers and storms off to our west currently moving over the state line that will keep our rain chances up into the evening hours before they start to break down. For the remainder of the night, plan on partly cloudy skies with muggy conditions, despite it being night time. Tomorrow, a trough will start to press into the state bringing another round of showers and storms. The main chance for showers and storms exists for those north of the I-20 line.

Monday night, the line of rain should die down some as it keeps up its progress toward the southeast; however, it looks like it won’t make it out of central Alabama that night and will bring more showers and storms, but mainly for those south of I-20 fir Tuesday

From here, the forecast gets a bit tricky…

Tropical Invest 93 looks to try and reach tropical storm strength by this point in our forecast. Most models are now thinking a close to Alabama Coast landfall, or Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana. Regardless where it exactly makes landfall with these states, it will bring an increased chance in showers late Tuesday night through the remainder of the forecast as the storm system starts to be picked up by the trough that will stall over the southeast. The closer to Alabama the storm makes landfall, the higher our rain chances will be; that said, expect us to make changes to our forecast over the next two days to adapt to changes in potential storm track of Invest 93.

Turning full focus to the tropics now:

Invest 93 is currently located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where it has increased in size from yesterday. Tonight, the system is expected to move over the Yucatan Peninsula and enter into the southern Gulf of Mexico. From there, all models agree on a northward track. Most are agreeing on a Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Florida landfall. The main impacts on the storms path are the trough that will be sliding southward tomorrow and Tuesday through Alabama, as well as the ridge that is moving off the coast of the Carolinas. The location of the trough over the next two days will steer the storm either further east or west. We will be keeping a close eye over the next several hours to try and get a better idea what will happen. With current changes in the storms path, we are increasing our rain chances mid and late this coming work week since we will likely be receiving moisture from the system to feed showers and storms over central Alabama. The good news is, the northern Gulf of Mexico is too cool and the trough will implement too much shear for the system to get stronger than a tropical storm.

Behind Invest 93 is Invest 92 that is currently located about 800 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands, which places still out in the Atlantic. It will likely to continue track west-northwestward over the next several days as it slowly tries to organize into a more developed storm; however, it will also struggle to strengthen and is also expected to not surpass tropical storm strength. We could likely see it become a named storm in the next few hours according to current projections. Since this storm is still so far out, no U.S impact is expected. We will keep watching this storm over the next several days as it moves closer to the Caribbean.

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Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Reggie Roakes

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