Strong Storms Very Early Thursday Morning… Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23


Good Tuesday afternoon! Our local weather has turned out very nice after a cool start to the day. The upper level low that brought the cloudiness and cooler air over the past 48 hours is well to our east. A warming trend was noticed today, with most areas reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Our local weather will remain quiet over the next 24 hours before things get active late tomorrow night.

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A deep upper air trough to our west will kick off a deep surface low over Arkansas and southern Missouri Wednesday afternoon. Severe storms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday over Arkansas, west Tennessee and west Mississippi. A line of strong to severe storms will race eastward across Mississippi during the overnight hours. Instability will gradually decrease during the overnight hours ahead of the storms, so a gradual weakening trend is expected.

The storms will reach the west Alabama state line between 1am and 5am, then move east of I-65 by 7am. I don’t expect any issues with storms across any portion of central Alabama after 8am, as the line will be moving quickly across the state and weakening with time. Areas generally west of I-65, there is a small chance an isolated severe storm or two could develop. The main risk will be damaging winds, however a spin-up tornado or small hail can’t be ruled out. The risk is much lower east of I-65. Storms will be out of the area likely before most of you wake up, so have a way to get warnings incase a warning is issued for your area.

Expect hot days for Friday and Saturday, with some areas reaching 90 degrees! I can’t rule out a stray afternoon or evening storm both days, but most of you will remain dry.

A large scale upper air trough will become negatively tilted west of Alabama on Sunday. A deepening surface low will track northeast across the central Mississippi River valley. Instability will rapidly increase as uplift moves in from the west Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening if the latest forecast model data is correct. While there are some uncertainties with this system, we’ll need to keep a careful eye on updates as it gets closer…

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott