Moderate & Enhanced Severe Risk Shifted West… Tuesday Update – 1:45pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday early afternoon! The Storm Prediction Center has come out with the new severe weather outlook for Wednesday. They have expanded and shifted west the moderate and enhanced severe weather risk to now include all of Alabama in either the moderate risk of enhanced risk. Officially, the moderate risk includes cities near and to the east of Thomaston, Marion, Brent, Birmingham, Oneonta and areas to the east. The enhanced risk goes back to the west Alabama state line.

We are very carefully watching for the potential of a significant severe weather event across portions of Alabama on Wednesday. We will deal with 2 rounds of strong to severe storms, with the highest risk of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes occurring in the moderate risk area, especially along and east of I-65. Understand, all of Alabama is in a severe weather risk.

A cluster of strong to severe storms, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will kick off over south Alabama between 4am and 8am Wednesday and track northeast into central Alabama with the warm front. This round of storms should move northeast of our area by lunch on Wednesday. The big question is how widespread will the storms be during the morning and will that help to limit the risk of afternoon severe storms. Unfortunately, data agrees, the morning convection should move on without stabilizing the atmosphere for the afternoon round.

Forecast models suggest a serious severe weather risk will develop during the afternoon hours for areas, especially near and east of I-65 (Cullman to Birmingham to Clanton and points east). West Alabama is a little more in question because it will be a race between the cold front and storm initiation. If storms initiate further west than expected, the risk of dangerous severe storms will further shift west. Either way, everyone in west, central and east Alabama need to be alert tomorrow afternoon as well because it’s too close of a call on the storm initiation.

The afternoon round will begin shortly after lunch across central Alabama, and end no later than 7pm across extreme east Alabama. Storms are capable of large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. The highest risk of a strong tornado or two will occur near and to the east of I-65, closer to the Georgia state line, but I want to warn you… that is highly dependent on the morning storms and the afternoon point where storms begin to fire up. Small changes could increase or decrease the risk in west and central Alabama.

If we get a tornado warning, you can join us live on WVUA 23, plus, look for our WVUA23 live facebook page to watch severe weather coverage on facebook. Another great source is on our website. Go to wvua23.com, scroll over the weather tab and click the live weather coverage link.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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