Heavy Rain, Strong to Severe Storms Tonight – Early Monday – 9pm Sunday Update #alwx @wvua23

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Good Sunday evening! At 9pm, very heavy rain developing over most of central Mississippi and northwest Alabama will gradually spread in from the west overnight. There could be some flooding issues for areas along and northwest of I-59 between 10pm and sunrise tomorrow morning. The main severe weather risk late tonight into early Monday morning will include areas along and to the south of I-20, where damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and very heavy rain will remain possible. Keep in mind, there is a risk of damaging winds to the north of I-20, but if you are north of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, the risk is a bit lower compared to areas south of those cities.

The time frame will begin with the risk of strong to severe storms in west Alabama just after midnight tonight, then ending for areas west of I-65 by 9am Monday morning. This large cluster of rain and storms will be very slow to progress across our area, so flooding may become a risk overnight into early Monday morning. Areas east of I-65 and especially south of I-20 will deal with a risk of hail, isolated tornadoes and damaging winds early Monday into the midday hours, beginning around 7am, ending by 11am for east Alabama.

We’ll watch radar trends carefully overnight!

Richard Scott

Severe Weather Update (for Early Monday Morning) 4/24/17, 9:30am. @wvua23 #wxal. 

Good Sunday morning. We’ve continued monitoring our forecast for tonight into tomorrow. The original plan for storms along the coast to inhibit strength is now changing. Our higher resolution models are showing nothing to limit the incoming storm system (this image is from the NAM at 8am Monday). 

Timing: expect arrival for west Alabama between 6 and 9am. Central Alabama will be slightly later, between 9am and 12pm. Then if the timings hold up, east Alabama will see the line arriving between 12 and 3 pm. 

Impacting Locations: I still feel like this will be a southerly impacting system. The greatest chance will be for those south of I-20.  Areas north of that still could see the chance, but it will not be as likely. 

Threats: threats include strong gusty winds that could knock things over (we could see winds up to 70mph when the line first arrives). Some hail could be possible. Tornadoes could become tucked within the front of the line from the shear of high winds. They will quickly spin up and break down while being pushed along, rather than being long lasting/tracking. 

Reggie Roakes